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Monday, May 11, 2009

The Dow took a hit today as it lost 155 points on light volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. It is options expiration week. It's probably too late for the OEX puts now but I can't rule anything out. Not a lot of time here though and the risk is high. Lots of divergences with the McClellan oscillator and we are just about at the top of the summation indexes range. I think we're there. That doesn't mean we can't move higher or go sideways but I think it does mean that the bulk of this rally is behind us. How to trade it is another matter. Gold didn't do much today, off a buck. the XAU was off about 1 1/2. ABX and GG off 1/2 and NEM lost a point. The volume was light. We were lower but made up a lot of ground in a hurry during the last 5 minutes. I don't know what it means but I may try the gold shares again this week. With only 4 days left? And overbought as we are? I might do it but again the risk is higher. The shorter term technicals will be the key. Gold isn't selling off here and I don't see any rally in the US dollar either. But that could all change tomorrow. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Kind of itchy to make a trade here and that isn't the usual scenario during expiration week. However if I feel that something has a chance to work I'm going to try it. Leaning more towards gold since we have already fallen pretty good with regards to the Dow. So we'll see. I could also just sit tight here and roll on to the June cycle. An extra week in that particular cycle so the premiums will be expensive. Let's see what Tuesday brings.

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