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Wednesday, May 13, 2009

Continuing lower as the Dow lost 184 points on average volume. Advance/declines were 6 to 1 negative. The summation index will be turning down today. Is the rally over? Probably. I'd like to see a light volume retest of the highs to get some OEX puts for the June cycle. But that's a best case scenario. The market will go where it wants. No trades for this week. I'll have to let the options expire and look to do something for June. Gold was up a couple of bucks but the XAU fell 4 points. ABX and GG lost 3/4, while NEM dropped 1 1/2. We are overbought here and a pullback would not be a surprise. I'm not going to chase things here but I still like the gold shares. However if we get a drop in the overall market the gold shares could fall in sympathy. The dollar was higher today and if we fall enough to raise the fear level again, money will flow into the dollar. So I think we are in a possible transition here but I don't know for sure. It's my guess at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. Inflation data in the next couple of days and I don't expect anything out of the ordinary. I think the surprise will be in the June data but I could be wrong. So for now it's time to sit tight for a while I suppose. Never easy but sometimes necessary.

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