Moving higher now as the Dow gained 113 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were about 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is heading lower but I do believe it is about to turn around.  We've got the Fed tomorrow and even if we head lower, I think it's a buying opportunity.  I'm now looking at the SPY July calls.  The risk in the June calls is probably too high for me now with only 3 days left before expiration.  But you never know.  We've still got Greece on Thursday to get through.  However it is most likely some kind of deal will come through.  But it is a problem that will probably never be solved.  GE finished flat on the session after selling off early.  Volume was summer average.  I still like the GE July calls at some point but would prefer to see a solid oversold reading.  Gold was off $5 on the futures as the US dollar was up a bit.  Things could get moving here on the Fed tomorrow.  The XAU fell a point and GDX shed 1/4.  Volume was average.  Patience is the course of action here for now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The TRAN was lower today and you never know how the market will react to the Fed.  But I do think we are at a spot where the summation index will turn around.  Now I could be wrong and we head down for another leg but I don't think so.  If we do get some weakness tomorrow, I'm probably going to try the SPY July calls.  I am looking for some type of summer rally to begin and take us to new all time highs.  The RUT has held up well here and could be leading the way.  So we'll see.  Gold remains above $1150 and that is the level to watch in my opinion.  The lack of a decent rally in the face of the Greek situation could be all you need to know about gold here.  The gold shares are oversold but have remained that way for a couple of weeks.  So we'll see how the markets react to the Fed tomorrow and perhaps try the SPY July calls.

A downside start to expiration week as the Dow fell 107 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were about 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues lower.  We sold off early pretty hard and made back half of it during the session.  I would still like to try the SPY June calls but early today was probably the ideal time to buy them.  I do think that the summation index will turn around this week.  But the technical set-up to trade here is not ideal as things could still go either way.  GE was off 18 cents on average volume.  Getting to short term oversold but not there yet.  Perhaps the GE July calls will be the next trade.  Gold found some interest as the futures rose $6.  The US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight gains on summer average volume.  I would have expected more interest in both gold and the US dollar with the questions coming out of Greece.  Perhaps the market knows more than we do.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Greece is stealing the spotlight once again and the next meeting to resolve that is on Thursday.  I'm guessing a deal will get done and the markets will rally.  We have the Fed on Wednesday to deal with as well.  So it should be a somewhat volatile trading week, with expiration thrown in there too.  I could just sit on the sidelines myself but you don't make any money like that.  I might try the SPY June calls if we head lower to test the recent lows tomorrow.  But it would be very risky.  The best trades are when things line up properly and that isn't really the case at this time.  I do want some of the GE July calls though at some point soon.  If there is a deal for Greece on Thursday, there won't be any reason to buy gold.  If the Fed is hawkish with its statement on Wednesday, it's another reason not to buy gold.  Trades need to be technically based and right now it's a news driven environment.  That said, I still might try something tomorrow.  I'll go over everything again tonight and then decide.  But as I said earlier, this morning may have been the best time to get some SPY June calls.  So we'll see.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments and go from there.

Back to the downside to close out the week as the Dow fell 140 points on very light volume.  The advance/declines were about 2 to 1 negative.  It appears that the market is still trying to make up its mind here.  The short term technical are mid-range.  I still may try the SPY June calls again but the risk would be pretty high and the signal, if it comes, wouldn't be as strong as the last one.  Greece is back in the news and so we may just have to wait for that to be resolved before we get any real direction.  GE was off 1/8, very light volume there as well.  Gold was off just a bit today as was the US dollar.  We are not seeing a flight to safety yet with the recent, back in the news again Greece situation.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses with no volume.  The lack of interest here is obvious.  The ABX October calls are still on my radar.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Not exactly sure where we go from here but I'm leaning towards a bullish conclusion to all the sideways movement.  The summation index is heading lower but it is in a zone where unless we get a complete collapse, it should turn around.  I do not think that the market will fall apart here.  I could be wrong.  We could not improve on the huge up day Wednesday and that could be a problem.  Technically things could go either way.  Guessing is not a winning strategy.  Maybe if the 50 day RSI on the S&P 500 gets oversold early next week, I'll try the SPY June calls again.  But things were lined up better for the last trade.  It will be options expiration week so perhaps the usual positive bias will show up.  GE has been moving sideways since the breakout in April.  The Bollinger bands have contracted which implies a pretty good move is on the way.  As usual, the direction is the question.  I think GE will be moving higher but it isn't oversold at the moment.  The gold shares remain oversold without any bounce and the volume says nobody is interested.  With summer fast approaching, the lack of participants in all the markets is something to consider.  Light volume can skew things on way or the other but not really mean anything.  Probably treading lightly is the best course of action unless there is a solid technical set up.  There will be plenty to think about over the weekend and we'll have to keep an eye out for any headlines.  News event markets are not easy to trade but that is the nature of the game.  We've got the Fed to deal with next week as well.  But it's Friday afternoon now and time for a break.

We did get some follow through today as the Dow rose 39 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still moving down.  Retail sales were a touch better than expected.  We rallied for the first half hour and drifted lower for the rest of the session.  The short term technical are now mid-range for the S&P 500.  I still think we are heading higher.  I did sell the SPY June calls today for a bit over 100% profit.  I could have had a better exit as well but at least I stuck to the short term trade time frame.  I may even try these again before expiration.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume was light.  I'm still considering the July calls here.  Gold was off around $5 on the futures as the US dollar rose off of the retail sales report.  The XAU lost 1 1/3, while GDX shed about 1/4.  Volume remains light here as there isn't any interest in the gold shares.  The gold shares are relatively weaker here and that is not a bullish sign.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The SPY June trade went OK.  The entry and exit good have been better.  However that trade is over and doesn't matter now.  If the technicals line up properly in the next 6 days, I may try this trade again.  I do think that the summation index is going to turn around here and start to move higher.  Perhaps the July calls would be a better choice but they are expensive.  I'll have to look things over tonight.  Inflation data tomorrow but next week we get the Fed and the markets should move on that.  Gold is not doing much and remains uninteresting.  But I am probably going to try the October ABX calls if gold gets to $1150 or so.  Whether it can hold that level will determine the fate of that trade.  We'll watch what goes on overnight and close out the week tomorrow. 

The expected bounce arrived as the Dow rose 236 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still heading lower.  I'm not sure if today was simply a one day wonder or the start of something that leads to new all time highs.  I'd like to think that it's the latter.  My SPY June calls are doing good despite the poor timing on the entry.  I perhaps should of just sold them today though.  We are right at a short term down trend line that began about 3 weeks ago for the S&P 500.  We'll move off of the retail sales data tomorrow.  GE was up almost 1/3 on average volume.  It appears that I've missed this trade for the July calls.  However the market goes where it wants and things could turn around tomorrow.  Gold was up almost $10 on the futures as the US dollar had a weak session.  The XAU was up 7/8 and GDX rose an 1/8 on light volume.  The gold shares didn't really follow gold higher and that isn't bullish.  NEM has turned into an under performer now.  I'm going to try and remain patient on the gold shares but do want the October calls here at some point.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So we got the bounce and now what?  It was technically expected and it showed up.  But where do we go from here?  I'm hoping for some upside follow through tomorrow but anything can happen.  I'm considering holding on to this trade longer now but that may not be the proper strategy as well.  As usual, the game is never easy.  The major stock index daily candlestick charts look to have bullish set ups on them after todays price action.  The short term indicators also have room to run higher.  So there will be a lot to think about tonight.  I don't think that recent upside in gold the past 3 days is the start of anything substantial.  I could be wrong.  The short term technical indicators have turned up here as well.  The ABX October calls are still on my radar.  We'll see if the foreign markets can follow the Dow higher and then await the market reaction to the retail sales numbers. 

We limped around for much of the session as the Dow fell 2 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues lower.  The internals are very weak.  That said, we are short term oversold and I do believe a decent bounce is coming tomorrow or Thursday.  I did get the SPY June calls this morning but my timing was not good.  I could have gotten a better price if I was quicker and ended up chasing it.  They are at break even now.  This is probably a trade that needs to be sold by the close on Thursday.  We'll see.  GE was up a few cents on what passes for average volume these days.  I still like the July calls here.  Gold was up a few bucks on the futures as the US dollar was slightly off.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume.  NEM got whacked on a deal to buy another miner by issuing more shares.  Perhaps the out performance there is coming to a halt.  I still am considering the ABX October calls.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The price action in the SPY calls today was interesting to say the least.  But at least there is plenty of liquidity there.  I am pretty sure that buying the calls here is the right trade.  Otherwise things will unravel and I don't see that happening tomorrow.  Maybe the retail sales report on Thursday can get things moving to the upside.  I think that will be the case if tomorrow is another day like today.  My execution on the entry today wasn't good.  I knew what I had to do and juggled around with the price too much.  The SPY is a fast trading vehicle.  I'm still fairly confident that this trade will work out.  Gold is still above $1150 and the volume has been light to start off the week.  I'm trying to remain patient there.  We'll watch the foreign markets overnight and take it from there.

To the downside to begin the week as the Dow fell 82 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  We closed near the lows for the session and that is bearish.  The summation index continues lower.  The short term technical indicators are oversold for the major stock indices.  That said, I do believe that on weakness tomorrow SPY June calls can be bought.  That will be my next trade.  Unless the market is about to completely unravel, we should see a bounce either tomorrow or on Wednesday.  GE was off a nickel and the volume was light again.  I'm still considering the July calls here.  Gold was up $5 on the futures as the US dollar fell by over a point.  Considering the drop in the dollar, it wasn't much of a gold rally.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains but volume did pick up a bit to the upside.  The gold shares are short term oversold here.  I am still leaning towards the ABX October calls if we get medium term oversold.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  My work says that some upside is coming.  I don't know how long it will last but there should be something by Wednesday.  Weakness can be bought tomorrow.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow today and we haven't seen that lately.  I will be looking to get some SPY June calls in the early hours of trading.  Of course I could be wrong and if I am we'll see quite a decline due to the technical nature of what is unfolding.  But I do not think that will occur.  Gold needs to hold the $1150 level and for silver it's $15.50 or we're heading lower.  Perhaps if we get to these levels in the coming days, I'll try the ABX October calls.  Too soon to tell.  Hopefully my timing on the SPY trade tomorrow will be correct.  We'll see if the overseas markets follow the US lower overnight.

Reaction to todays employment report?  Not much.  The Dow fell 56 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  We were down, then up and spent most of the day in a sideways malaise.  That is where we are at.  Sideways forever or so it seems.  The summation index is still heading down.  The TRAN had a positive session and the small stocks along with the overall market were stronger than the Dow.  I'm leaning towards perhaps getting some SPY June calls at the beginning of next week.  GE was up a few cents and the volume was pretty light.  Getting short term oversold but not completely there yet.  Gold fell $7 on the futures as the US dollar was higher today.  Gold did come back a few bucks in the aftermarket.  The XAU fell 7/8 and GDX lost 1/4.  Volume was very light.  There is no compelling reason to own gold here.  $1150 is the next downside target and it will need to hold on there.  I'm still looking at the October ABX calls.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It is rare when we don't see some volatility one way or the other on the jobs report.  Perhaps the market has its mind on something else.  Employment expanded more than expected.  Maybe the recent rise in interest rates is putting a lid on the stock market.  That money has to go somewhere though.  Technically the major big cap indexes are short term oversold.  Whatever is going on underneath the surface will eventually come out.  There will be a lot to consider over the weekend.  The precious metals did come off of their lows but the lack of volume was glaring.  There is no interest here.  Sometimes the time to buy is when nobody else wants it.  The fundamentals for gold at this time are negative though.  But I do want to have some kind of bullish position before the seasonally strong August/September time period.  It may be too early.  Plenty to ponder over the next 2 days.  I really think that the market is setting up for some type of rally soon.  I could be wrong but if things pan out on Monday or Tuesday, I'm probably going to attempt the SPY June calls.  We'll see what the charts say over the weekend.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break. 

Lower today ahead of the jobs report as the Dow fell 170 points on still light volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index is still heading lower.  The selling in the bond market seems to be carrying over to stocks.  I think tomorrows price action will go a long way as to where we are heading for the next few weeks.  Short term oversold on the major big cap indices.  GE was off 1/4 on average volume.  The Bollinger bands on the daily chart here are converging.  This suggests a big move is coming up.  In which direction is the question.  Gold fell today, about $10 on the futures.  The US dollar finished little changed but came off of its lows.  Commodities in general were weak today.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume.  Oversold and staying there for the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Still over 2 weeks left in the June option cycle.  It looks like things are rolling over here for stocks.  If we get a strong employment report, stocks will probably head lower.  If that is the case a bounce trade in the SPY next week is possible.  Lower prices could give me a chance at getting the GE calls.  Gold closed below $1180 today and the next support comes in at $1150.  If that doesn't hold up things could really get ugly there.  I'm still looking at the October gold share calls though.  Timing is everything.  We'll watch overnight to see if the foreign markets follow the US lower.  Then all eyes will be on the market reaction to the jobs report. 

Once again the market is heading nowhere fast as the Dow gained 64 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive.  The Dow finished well off of the highs for the session.  The summation index is still moving lower.  The TRAN had a strong session and that's a positive.  But I still don't have a good feel or signal on what to do here.  I'm leaning towards the SPY call side but the volume has been so light lately that I don't have a good idea.  I'll probably just remain on the sidelines.  GE gained 20 cents and the volume is still light.  It looks like maybe that GE will not get into what I consider the buy zone for the July calls.  I'll wait and see.  Gold was off almost $10 on the futures despite another drop in the US dollar.  The XAU shed 1 1/4, while GDX lost 1/3.  Volume remains lackluster.  I'm guessing that things will pick up here with the release of the jobs numbers.  Which way is the question.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Tomorrow should be another wishy-washy session ahead of Fridays release.  I'm most likely going to remain cautious.  Sometimes you have to be patient and wait for good set ups.  You do not want to get into a habit of guessing.  I would like to put on a trade but there isn't really anything that I'm clear on right now.  The precious metals are getting short term oversold but I'm going to wait.  Ditto for the gold shares.  I may change my mind tomorrow but for now indecision rules the day.  We'll watch what happens in the foreign markets overnight and take it from there.

Back and forth again today as the Dow fell 28 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive again.  So we continue to go nowhere as the market tries to resolve which way it wants to go.  This has been going on for weeks on end.  The only sustained trend is sideways.  There is a short term down trend line in effect for the big cap stock averages.  What happens there probably will tell the story.  Waiting on Fridays employment report.  GE was up a nickel and the volume was light.  Waiting for oversold here.  Gold was up $5 on the futures which wasn't that much considering the US dollar got clobbered.  The XAU rose 1 1/4, while GDX gained about 1/3.  Volume was average for lately.  Not sure what is happening here with respect to the US dollar.  However golds lack of better upside isn't bullish.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I suppose all we can do is wait while the market decides which way it wants to go.  The short term techncials are getting oversold here though for the major stock indices.  Perhaps the SPY June calls ahead of the employment report will be the proper play.  But the summation index is still moving lower.  I may just have to remain on the sidelines.  I've got a couple of days to decide.  The gold shares can wait for now in my opinion.  Short term oversold there as well.  However the medium term picture isn't as clear.  The trading is never easy.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments and see what tomorrow brings.

The Dow gained 29 points to start the month of June.  The advance/declines were slightly positive and the volume was light.  We bounced around and gave up half of the days gains in the final hour.  The summation index is still heading lower but the TRAN had a good day.  It appears that the market is still trying to make up its mind.  GE was basically unchanged on average volume.  The July calls here are still on my radar.  Gold was off a buck on the futures which wasn't bad because the US dollar was higher once again today.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume.  Short term oversold for the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I looked all weekend for something to trade but there aren't any clear signals at the moment.  The summation index is still pointing down and I'm going to follow that cue.  I'm still in a cautious mode for now.  If we head lower into the employment report, I may be tempted to try the June SPY calls on Thursday.  But things will have to line up for that trade.  I also still want to try the gold shares going out to October.  But patience is probably a good thing for that idea.  I also had an idea to trade AAL after reading an article in Barrons a week ago.  However I do not follow the airline stocks per se and this issue has already moved higher.  The June calls there were the proper choice.  We'll keep an eye on the overseas markets tonight and go from there.

We completed the month of May with a whimper as the Dow fell 115 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The revised GDP came in weaker and that was pretty much expected.  The summation index is still heading lower and perhaps we should take our cues from that.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 are still mid-range.  No clear signal yet with 3 weeks to go in the June option cycle.  GE was off 1/3 on average volume.  It appears that the technicals here on the short term are starting to roll over.  Perhaps we will get a set up for the July calls in GE.  That is what I'll be looking for here.  Gold didn't do much today despite the weaker GDP report.  The US dollar finished the session little changed as well.  Ditto for the gold share indices.  Volume was light.  I'm still looking for the ABX October calls but ABX isn't oversold on a medium term basis yet.  I may try the June calls here again as well if the short term is negative.  I should not be in a hurry here because we are still in a seasonally weak period for the precious metal.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The TRAN continues to be weak here and is oversold on both a short and medium term basis.  Will this condition continue or will we see a bounce from here?  I think that the answer to that question will go a long way into telling where the stock indexes are headed.  Another thing to ponder is whether the divergence between the TRAN and the Dow is going to have a negative effect on stocks.  It hasn't happened yet.  I'll have to check the charts this weekend and try to come up with some answers.  Gold is still holding on above the support of $1180 to $1150.  It is oversold on a short term basis.  The precious metals are either building a long term base or consolidating before the next break down.  The right answer there will make you some money.  It's something to think about.  Plenty of work to do over the weekend.  A lot of economic data out next week, with the jobs report on Friday being the biggest.  But for now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Weakness for this trading session as the Dow fell 36 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  We'll get the GDP revision tomorrow and finish up the month of May.  The summation index is moving lower.  I still think that we will be moving higher from here but anything can happen.  The short term technical indicators for the major stock indices remain mid-range.  Not a clear signal really.  GE was up 1/8 on light volume.  I still would like to get some July calls here if we ever get oversold.  Gold was up a couple bucks as the US dollar was lower today.  The XAU was up a point and GDX had a fractional gain.  Volume was light.  ABX was a bit lower early on and I placed an order for the June calls.  My order wasn't filled and ABX turned around to finish the day with a gain of 1/3 on average volume.  Perhaps I should have chased this trade but to me it was short term in nature so I stayed out.  It is simply another missed opportunity if ABX continues higher.  I also like the October calls here at some point over the summer.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We'll see how the market reacts to the revised GDP number and that is about all we've got to finish the week and the month.  Still three weeks to go in the June option cycle, so there will be trades out there.  My guess is a weaker GDP and a stock rally with gold moving higher as well.  The consensus is for a weaker number as well.  Perhaps there will be some more volatility with the end of the month but we could finish things with a whimper as well.  There really isn't a clear technical signal for the stock indexes at this time.  The gold shares were stronger than the price of gold today and that's a positive.  However the volume was light.  Summer is approaching and you don't want to force trades.  If the gold shares head back to the downside in the next few weeks, it possibly could be the set up for the October calls.  Time will tell.  We'll watch the overnight developments and see what tomorrow brings.

A bounce back to the upside as the Dow gained 121 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were about 3 to 1 positive.  Todays price action negates the Friday bounce trade that I had in mind.  We would have needed to move sideways or continue lower for that trade to take place.  So now we go from here.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  The small stocks acted well.  The TRAN looks like it may stop its decline here.  I'm thinking that we will be moving back now to attempt new all time highs.  GE was flat on the session and volume was light.  Patience for now.  Gold didn't do much today and the US dollar finished flat as well.  The XAU and GDX were little changed on light volume.  I am now considering a bounce trade for the gold shares on Friday.  They are short term oversold and I'm thinking that the GDP revision will be lower.  I am looking at the ABX June calls and this would be a short term trade.  I will consider it tonight.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock indices are back in a place where they could go either way again.  However I now think that we'll be heading higher form here.  You always have to adjust to the information and price action at hand.  It isn't easy to do.  The short term technicals here are now mid-range for the major stock indexes.  Taking a gold share trade here is risky but it could pay off for strictly a short term play.  I'm looking at the ABX June 11.5 or 12 calls.  If there is weakness in ABX tomorrow, I'm probably going to try this trade.  So we'll see.  2 days left in the month of May.  We'll keep an eye on the foreign markets overnight and go from there.

We started off the short trading week to the downside as the Dow fell 190 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative.  The summation index will be moving lower after todays action.  The short term technical indicators for the major stock indices have now rolled over.  We did bounce up off of the lows for the day in the final hour.  I'm not sure if this is the beginning of something sustained or just another run lower in the trading range.  If we stay lower the next couple of days, I'll be looking for a bounce on Friday.  GE was off 1/8 or so on good volume.  I'm still looking at the July calls here if we can get oversold or near the $26.50 zone.  Gold fell today as the US dollar continues higher.  The precious metal futures dropped twenty bucks.  The XAU fell 2 1/2, while GDX shed over 1/2.  Volume picked up to the downside.  I'm looking for gold share calls with an autumn expiration.  The ABX October calls are on my radar.  No hurry to purchase.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The TRAN continues to drop and its 50 day moving average is now passing through the 200 day moving average to the downside.  That is a classic sell signal.  However none of the other major stock averages are even close to that happening.  The technical roll over of the indicators says that there is more downside on the way in the short term.  Obviously purchasing index puts on Friday was the way to go.  My work does point to an oversold bounce possibility this Friday if we see more weakness in the next two days.  So we'll see.  I'll be looking at the SPY June calls if things line up.  The gold share indices have broken down out of their rising trend channels.  The short term technicals here are getting oversold.  NEM continues to show the best relative strength.  The European stock markets were weaker today also.  We'll have to see if that continues overnight as well as what happens in the Asian markets.    

Lower today as we were for much of the session as the Dow fell 52 points on very light volume.  The advance declines were negative.  We bounced around and then dropped in the final half hour to close with a loss.  You can't read too much into todays action because the market was certainly in holiday mode.  The Yellen speech came and went.  The short term technical indicators for most of the major averages are still in the overbought zone.  The summation index is moving sideways.  GE was off a few cents, the volume very light.  Overbought here as well.  Gold was flat despite a higher US dollar.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses.  Volume was very light.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So we got what was expected today in the marketplace.  Listless, light volume activity.  Not sure what to expect next week but I'll try and figure that out over the weekend.  It really was a week to just let pass by and I'm glad I did.  Next week perhaps the 1st quarter GDP revision will be the mover on Friday.  That's a guess as usual.  The gold share indices are breaking down from their ascending trend channel.  Not quite oversold there yet on a short term basis.  Not mush else to say about today.  I'll be checking the charts this weekend as usual.  Perhaps I'll be able to come up with a trade for the June option cycle.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Still trying to figure out which way to go here as the Dow barely changed today on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive again.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  Maybe we're going higher, maybe lower and I just don't know.  So I had better wait until things clear up.  I'm going to let tomorrow go by and consider scenarios over the long weekend.  I suspect tomorrow will be another light volume affair unless Janet Yellen says something noteworthy.  GE up another 8 cents on good volume.  The relative strength of GE is very good here.  If we do see a pullback, calls will be in order.  The gold futures were off few bucks and the US dollar was lower as well.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume.  Patience advised here for the gold share calls.  Mentally I'm doing OK.  Yesterday the McClellan oscillator gave a signal for a big move forecast for today or tomorrow.  We'll see if that pans out.  Direction is not part of the signal.  I'm going to hold off on any SPY options until next week.  The technicals for gold have rolled over.  Expect lower prices there.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

It seems as though the market is still trying to make up its mind here.  The Dow fell 27 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The Fed minutes arrived and the stock indices had a small rally only to give it all back.  The TRAN had a very negative day.  If that is the leader here, we are about to roll over.  It has that feel.  The summation index is starting to go sideways.  The short term technical indicators for the major stock indexes are overbought.  I'm moving my stance to cautious here.  GE on the other hand was up over 1/3 on good volume.  If GE is a precursor for the overall market, than we should be moving higher.  But I'm not thinking that is the case this time around.  Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures.  The US dollar was higher but not as much as the past two days.  The XAU and GDX had very slight fractional gains.  Volume was light.  For whatever reason, NEM is out performing here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A couple of days to go this week before a long holiday weekend in the US.  I think the logical course of action would be to let this week complete and go from there.  Maybe try some June SPY puts if we continue to just drift higher on light volume.  The market has tried to break out and the volume hasn't been there.  The TRAN breakdown is not a positive.  The small cap stocks have now made lower highs.  Unless we get some huge upside rally out of nowhere, be wary.  Perhaps the Yellen speech on Friday will help the market make up its mind.  The gold share indices remain in an upward channel.  But one more negative session will break down out of it.  Stay tuned.  We'll see what transpires in the overnight action and go from there.

An up and down day with not a lot of conviction either way.  The Dow gained 13 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  Waiting for something to get a trend going but nothing just yet.  The major stock indices are short term overbought.  Not much to do here but watch and wait.  Of course, you don't make any money that way but you don't lose any either.  Perhaps if we continue the light volume levitation, I'll try some June SPY puts.  But the better idea in my mind is waiting for a pullback to get long.  GE was up a few cents and the volume remains light.  Patience here.  Gold took a fall today finally on the stronger US dollar.  A delayed reaction I suppose.  The precious metal futures dropped twenty bucks as the dollar gained a full point.  The XAU shed 2 7/8, while GDX dropped 3/4.  I did put in an overnight order for some ABX June puts but it wasn't filled.  I was a day late and it is frustrating.  I'm looking for more downside for the gold shares.  Mentally I'm doing OK with the exception of missing this gold share trade.  I probably should have done more work over the weekend but this idea just occurred to me yesterday.  Had I been paying better attention, perhaps I would have seen it over the weekend.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow today which was the opposite of yesterday.  The TRAN also reversed course.  The big caps are hitting new highs but the small stocks are not.  That is not the scenario for an extended rally in my view.  This type of price action usually happens towards the end of an up move.  So we'll see.  The volume has been weak and that isn't a positive either.  But the summation index is still pointing up and as I've said before, there is no overhead resistance.  Plenty of time in the June option cycle, so we'll see how things play out.  I believe that gold is about to begin an extended decline.  The gold shares are overbought both short and medium term.  Puts there are advised but they are already more expensive than yesterday.  We'll watch the foreign markets overnight and see what the Fed has to report tomorrow.

Meandering higher today as the Dow gained 26 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is heading up.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  The major stock indices are overbought and staying there.  The TRAN had a good session.  There is no reason to not believe that higher prices are coming.  The only drawback here is the light volume.  However there is no overhead resistance.  We've got the Fed minutes on Wednesday and Janet Yellen with a speech on Friday.  GE was up a few cents and the volume was light.  Just waiting for an oversold reading to get some June or July calls here.  Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures despite a strong session for the US dollar.  There are some rumblings about Greece again which perhaps is leading to a flight to safety play.  The XAU was slightly lower, while GDX was flat.  Overbought for the gold shares on a short and medium term basis.  I'm now thinking about perhaps some June puts here.  There was some media hype over the weekend about now being the time to buy some gold.  Usually when something gets popular in the media, it pays to go the other way.  The volume for gold and the gold shares remains low.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I guess at this point I'd like to see stocks pull back a little in order to purchase some June SPY calls.  I'm wary of the low volume here but there isn't any doubt that the trend is up.  An extra week in this option cycle makes things expensive for now.  I suppose I'll just be patient and keep an eye on things for now.  Gold is at resistance and most likely depending on the Fed this week will determine if we break through or not.  That's a guess as usual.  I'm looking at the ABX June puts.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments and go from there.

An uneventful expiration as the Dow gained 20 points on light volume.  the advance/declines were positive.  We were lower for most of the session in a narrow trading range.  Some of the big cap averages hit new all time highs today.  But we haven't seen a high volume breakout to the upside just yet.  I do think that it's coming but I certainly don't know when.  The summation index is now heading higher.  However the small caps, most notably RUT, are lagging here.  I'm still a believer in higher prices going forward.  I just need to time the purchase of some SPY calls at the right time.  GE was off 1/8 on light volume.  I'm leaning towards the July calls here.  Gold was flat on the session and the US dollar lost a bit more.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on very light volume.  Still oversold here on a medium term basis.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  On now to the June option cycle which has an extra week in it.  The premiums will be priced as such and will be more expensive to start.  We'll also have a holiday week thrown in a s well.  We'll get the Fed minutes in the middle of next week.  The SPY is getting short term overbought.  I'll be looking at what to do over the weekend but I'm pretty sure that I want to own calls here reasonably soon.  If the stock indices do break out to the upside, there is no overhead resistance.  I'm considering the July calls for GE because this stock sometimes goes sideways for quite a while, as is the case for the past few weeks.  The ideal entry point would be around $26.50.  Gold and the gold shares are short term overbought here and at 200 day resistance.  Although this is a seasonally weak period for the precious metal, it has held up pretty well.  I'm not sure what that means going forward.  There is certainly not a lot of interest in the precious metals at this time.  Patience is probably the best course of action here.  Plenty to ponder over the weekend.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The market surged higher today and some of the major stock indices closed at all time highs.  The Dow gained 191 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  This may move the summation index back to the upside.  Perhaps this is the beginning of a sustained move to the upside that I have been looking for.  But that has yet to be seen.  However I'm still a believer in higher prices going forward.  Looks like the May SPY calls this week would have worked out.  GE was up another 20 cents on light volume.  If the overall market goes up, GE should go along for a ride.  It may be too late for the calls here.  Gold was up another $7 on the futures as the US dollar was a bit lower again.  The gold shares didn't go along as the XAU and GDX only had slight fractional gains.  Volume was average.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It will be interesting to see if we can really get out of this protracted trading range.  If we continue higher with some volume, that will be the key.  Once it gets going, it usually goes higher than everybody expects.  So we'll see.  The gold shares are stalling at the 200 day moving average.  The medium term picture here is overbought.  I'm waiting for a decline here before attempting the next long trade here.  The September or October calls for ABX or GDX perhaps.  But patience is needed.  GE looks like it wants to break through the upper Bollinger band now.  That would be a positive for higher prices going forward.  The TRAN continues to lag.  We'll see how the expiration goes tomorrow.

The stock market is still trying to figure out what to do here as the Dow fell 7 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  We opened with a pop higher but could not hold on to the gains.  The summation index continues lower.  I'm still in the camp of a positive resolution to this sideways pattern.  GE was up almost 20 cents on average volume.  Waiting to buy June or July calls here on an oversold reading.  May not happen at this pace.  Gold rallied today on the weak retail sales number.  The precious metal futures rose $25 as the US dollar took a had a good drop.  The XAU rose 1 3/4, while GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was good.  The medium term technical indicators are overbought for the gold shares.  I do not advise chasing todays gains.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It seems like we have been waiting forever for the stock indices to have a sustained direction.  We continue on that path.  The TRAN looks like it is about to break down here.  I'm on the sidelines with regards to the SPY.  I think perhaps the GE calls will be the next trade.  The gold shares can wait for now.  Let's get through this week and go from there is my mantra at the moment.  We'll follow the overnight action and see what tomorrow brings.

The market got clobbered early but finished the day with a loss of 37 points.  The advance/declines were negative and the volume was light.  We were off 150 early and eventually made it all the way back to positive before rolling over again.  When we were down, I did not get any SPY May calls although that probably would have been the right move.  A market that can come back from such a drop, isn't one that is going much lower in my opinion.  I think that I'll be staying on the sidelines now with regards to the S&P 500 May options.  GE was up 1/8 on light volume.  June or July calls here remain the game plan.  The gold futures were up almost $10 on a weaker US dollar.  The XAU rose 3/4 and GDX gained 1/4.  Volume remains on the light side.  Patience is advised here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Although the summation index is still heading lower, I really think that we are about to hit new all time highs again.  That's a guess as usual.  It is option expiration week and it usually has a positive bias.  The comeback off of the lows today was impressive.  Retail sales tomorrow should provide some excitement.  Bond yields have risen pretty fast in the past few weeks.  As we come back off of that, the market should rally.  The technicals right now are not giving any solid signals for the major stock indices.  It looks like I'll be moving into the June option cycle which has an extra week in it.  Gold found some buyers today but it remains range bound.  Nothing to do here but wait.  We'll watch the foreign markets overnight and go from there.     

No upside follow through today as the Dow fell 86 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues lower.  I am thinking about getting some May SPY calls on weakness tomorrow but I usually don't fare well on the short term trades.  The technical picture is mixed for this trade but we are in expiration week.  Maybe I'll come to my senses and skip this idea.  We'll see.  GE was off 3/8 on average volume.  The Bollinger bands are contracting which foretells a big move coming for GE.  Which way is the question.  I still like the June or July calls here but I could be reading things wrong here as well.  Obviously my confidence isn't where it should be.  Gold was off $5 today as the US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume.  The gold shares are more oversold than overbought on a short term basis.  No trades here for now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Knocking on the door to new all time highs for some of the major stock indices but we just can't get in.  Not a lot of economic data due this week but we do get retail sales on Wednesday.  That should get things moving.  Once again, which direction is the question.  If things get short term oversold on some of my intra-day indicators tomorrow, then I might try the SPY call trade.  If not I'll hopefully sit things out.  I'll be checking some other things out overnight.  GLD and SLV remain in a trading range with light volume.  Unloved and with no interest for now.  It is still a seasonally unfavorable time period for the precious metals.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments and decide what to do tomorrow.

The employment report came out and the market responded with a huge gain of 267 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive.  I'm not sure that this will turn the summation index around but it will be getting close.  Back to knocking on the door to new all time highs for some of the major stock indices.  There is nothing in the way preventing new all time highs.  You figured today would tell the story and it did.  I don't think the numbers really mattered as the market will use any excuse to do what it wants.  So we should be heading higher form here.  GE was up 1/3 on average volume.  I'd still like to get some calls here but we've already moved up in the past two days.  Gold was up $6 on the futures and the US dollar was a bit higher as well.  These two didn't move as much on the jobs numbers and to me that makes sense.  The employment report really wasn't drastic one way or the other.  The XAU was up 2/3 and GDX rose 1/8.  Volume was light.  Patience advised for purchasing options on the gold shares.  The interest remains missing.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It looks like the oversold reading on the McClellan oscillator this past Wednesday marked the low for stocks at this time.  Expiration week is next week and the positive bias could come into play.  I'll be looking for SPY calls on weakness.  It we can get the summation index to turn positive, that would be the all clear sign.  I do believe that is where we are headed.  Perhaps June calls should be the next trade.  Also I may be getting a better read on what is going on in the markets now.  The employment report doesn't matter as much as the market reaction to it.  Once we get to new all time highs there is no overhead resistance as well.  I'll be looking for opportunities over the weekend.  Gold remains unloved and I'll be looking for trades elsewhere.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

A bounce today as the Dow gained 82 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  We're coming off of an oversold reading in the McClellan oscillator.  The summation index is still heading lower.  I think tomorrow will go a long way as to what is going on here.  The market should move off of the employment report and that should give us the medium term direction.  I think it could go either way.  But we'll know more tomorrow.  I am not going to attempt any SPY trades here.  GE was up about 1/4 on average volume.  Not completely oversold here so I'll try and remain patient.  Gold was off $8 on the futures as the US dollar was higher today.  The employment report should get these trading vehicles moving as well.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains today on average volume.  I think that patience is a good idea here as well.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So we are now basically waiting for the market action to tomorrows data.  The major stock indices appear to be trying to hang on here.  It is possible that the selling has subsided and that a rally will begin here.  The TRAN had a good day today.  But it's also possible that today was simply a day to relieve the selling pressure.  So I think that tomorrow will tell the story.  The gold shares acted better than gold today.  That is bullish.  The gold share indices also held at their 50 day moving averages.  So we'll see.  As always we'll watch the overnight action as we await the all important employment report tomorrow.

The Dow continued lower today as it lost 86 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  We did open higher and close lower again.  However we did come off of the lows for a mid-range of the day close.  Perhaps we'll see an attempt at a bounce tomorrow.  But the summation index continues lower.  Plus we have the jobs report on Friday, so I think traders could be wary of a position before that.  The McClellan oscillator is now in an area where it has bounced in the recent past.  The S&P 500 closed right on the near term support.  The next level in my mind would be 2050.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume was light.  Still waiting to get the calls here.  Support at $26.50 and then $26.  Gold fell a couple bucks on the futures despite a huge drop in the US dollar.  That isn't bullish for the precious metal.  The XAU lost 1 1/3, while GDX declined 1/2.  Volume picked up a bit.  Gold should be rallying when the dollar drops like it did today.  The usual relationships here between the US dollar, gold and the gold shares are not happening.  I don't know what that means but it is harder to try and trade here when the conditions are like this.  Not even close to being oversold yet for the gold shares so patience is still advised.  Mentally I'm trying not to be too down on myself for missing this shorting opportunity.  But it just goes to show you the type of dedication and hard work that must be put in to be successful in this game.  Even when doing that, you're not going to see every trade.  The small caps held up better today so there's a chance that perhaps the recent decline is closer to the end.  That's a guess as usual.  The foreign markets are losing ground here as well so perhaps there is some coordinated liquidation occurring.  Time will tell.  I suppose the next main event will happen on Friday when we get the employment report.  No telling how the markets will react to that.  If we get an oversold signal on the S&P 500 in the coming days, perhaps a bounce trade can be attempted before the May expiration.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments and take it from there. 

To the downside today as the Dow fell 142 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative.  The previous two day light volume rally was the opportunity to get some puts.  With the summation index heading lower the path of least resistance is down.  The TRAN got whacked today and the small stocks continue to lead the way lower.  The big caps are still near their all time highs but I think that lower prices are in the near future.  It is probably too late to purchase any SPY puts.  GE was off 1/3 and the volume picked up today.  Perhaps we will get low enough here to get the June or July calls.  Not oversold yet though.  Gold gained $6 on the futures as the US dollar was lower.  The gold shares followed the overall market.  The XAU lost 1/2 and GDX shed about 1/4.  Volume was light.  I'm still in the camp of waiting for a pullback before considering purchasing some calls here.  Mentally I'm doing OK.  I suppose I could have been more in tune with things and recognized that the recent light volume rally was a chance to get short.  But that was not the case.  I still don't have a good idea of the markets purpose here.  Only 8 days to go in the May option cycle.  I am still a believer in higher prices for the stock indices this year.  Right now Greece is starting to enter into the market picture again.  You can only guess how that gets resolved.  US interest rates have backed up in the past couple of weeks and the decline so far could be blamed on that as well.  But the decline has really only been in the smaller issues.  We've got the employment report due out on Friday and that should provide some clarity on market direction in the near term.  I suppose it wouldn't hurt to remain cautious for now.  Gold remains uninteresting.  We'll see if the foreign markets follow the US lower overnight. 

Trying to push higher as the Dow added 46 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  We did come off the highs of the session.  The summation index is still heading lower.  I don't have a good grasp on what is going on right now.  The small stocks did lead the way up and perhaps now they are leading the way down.  I do not have any SPY trades in mind for right now.  I wish there was a clear signal on what to do but there isn't.  GE was off a few cents and closed below its high as well.  Volume was light.  I'm looking out to the June or July calls.  Gold was up $12 on the futures and the US dollar was higher today as well.  However the XAU and GDX only had slight fractional gains.  Volume was very light.  Gold and the gold shares have not correlated well lately.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Not a lot of time left in the May option cycle.  I suppose if there is a set up in front of the employment report, I may be able to do a trade.  But that remains to be seen.  I am not sure if the light volume rally we've seen since Thursday is a chance to get your puts or something else.  So I'll have to sit on the sidelines for now.  Sometimes you simply have to be patient but we'll see how things shape up before Friday.  The volume in gold has tapered off so perhaps the interest that we saw has waned.  That's a guess as usual.  We'll follow the overnight developments and go from there. 

The market stormed back to the upside today as the Dow gained 183 points on lighter volume.  The advance/declines were positive but not as much as an up 183 market would suggest.  Beginning of the month money flows perhaps?  Do we begin another assault on new all time highs from here or was today a bounce for you to get short?  That is the question and at this time I don't have an answer.  You can make a case either way.  The summation index is heading lower, so I don't think that the weakness is over.  The small stocks are not leading the way here as well.  But it could be that the big caps will lead the way higher, which happens towards the end of extended rallies.  Obviously I don't have a clear idea of what is occurring at the moment.  GE was up 1/4 but the volume was lighter.  I'm still constructive on GE but I need to time the next trade properly.  I'll try and wait for an oversold condition.  Not there yet.  Gold was off about $8 on the futures as the US dollar had a bounce.  The gold shares continue their out performance as both the XAU and GDX had small fractional gains.  Volume was light.  I'll wait for a decline here before trying any trades in the gold shares.  We are still in a seasonally weak period for gold.  The gold shares have bucked that trend.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The month of May has started out on a positive note for the major stock indices.  The TRAN had a very good day and that could bode well going forward.  We'll have to see if there is any follow through on Monday.  I do not have any SPY trade ideas right now.  Perhaps the weekend chart studying will turn something up.  The continued strength in the gold shares despite the drop in the precious metal is confusing.  However the market always knows more than we do.  It's something to keep an eye on.  The market had plenty to digest this week and we'll get more data coming up including the employment report in a week.  I'll be looking for a technical signal to initiate a position but I don't see one now.  Plenty to ponder over the weekend.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

To the downside on heavy volume to close out the month of April.  The Dow fell 195 points and was negative all day long.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative.  This will turn the summation index lower.  The TRAN and the small stocks got whacked.  It looks like lower prices are in the near future.  The small stocks have broken the uptrend line from last October.  I'd expect the larger cap issues to follow.  So look for more selling.  GE only lost a penny on good volume.  That is excellent relative strength.  I still like the June calls or perhaps July if we move down to $26-$26.50.  No hurry with a defensive overall market.  Gold got clobbered and fell over $25 on the futures despite a drop in the US dollar.  I do not understand the disconnect with these two markets at the moment.  The XAU dropped 1 7/8, while GDX shed about 2/3.  Volume was good.  The gold shares have once again held up rather well despite the drop in gold.  We'll see how we close out the week here tomorrow.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It appears a decent decline is starting and it looks like I missed it.  Perhaps I was too focused on ABX.  More likely my prognosis for higher prices was just wrong.  No money lost at least.  Two weeks to go in the May option cycle after tomorrow.  Perhaps if we get short term oversold, I could try a bounce trade.  However it looks like the trend has changed.  GLD and SLV had gaps to the downside.  That doesn't bode well for the precious metals.  GG came out with earnings and they disappointed.  So trading the long side in the gold shares right now probably isn't a good idea.  The European markets stopped going down yesterday.  We'll see how they react to todays US decline overnight.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

An interesting session as the Dow fell 74 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The GDP report was weak and the market responded with a sell off.  The Fed was viewed as slightly hawkish but we bounced around after that.  The TRAN and the small stocks remained weak and that isn't bullish.  Some of the foreign markets were very weak, so I guess we held up OK for today.  The technical indicators have rolled over for the small stocks and are just beginning to for the larger cap averages.  I suppose I'll have to change my bullish stance to cautious for now.  GE was off a few cents and the volume was average.  I'm still considering the June calls here when GE gets oversold.  Gold had an interesting day as well.  The futures were down a few bucks despite the US dollar getting crushed again.  That did not make sense to me.  The futures fell a bit more after the Fed but it wasn't a rout.  The gold shares fared much better as the XAU rose about 2/3 and GDX about 1/4.  Volume was good.  ABX added about 20 cents on good volume.  I sold my ABX calls after the Fed for a small 15% gain.  The timing was bad but at least it wasn't a loss.  ABX recovered for the rest of the session.  I do not usually do well with short term option trades and this was no exception.  Back to the drawing board.  Mentally I'm doing OK.  The Dow held up OK considering the drops we saw overseas.  I do not have any SPY trades in mind for now but if a decent signal appears before the May expiration, I may give it a try.  It appears that the market is trying to make up its mind which way to go here.  We haven't really had a sustained move one way or the other for a while.  I'm on the sidelines for now.  The action in the gold shares today ended up positive considering the decline in gold.  I may had sold the ABX May calls early.  Make no mistake.  You do not put in the time and the effort to trade options for a 15% gain.  You are really looking at 100% or more gains to take on the risk in that game.  I was late to try this trade and attempted to trade the break out.  It still looks like ABX has broken out but it hasn't been what I expected yet.  I'll simply have to wait for the next idea to come with the gold shares.  GG reports earnings tomorrow.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments and see if the Dow follows through to the downside to close out the month. 

Back to the upside today as the Dow rose 72 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is heading sideways at this time.  We did sell off early and then come all the way back for a one day reversal to the upside.  The action was the opposite of yesterday.  Most major stock indices made a comeback today but the NASDAQ didn't make it into positive territory.  Tomorrow will be interesting with the 1st quarter GDP early and then the Fed later in the day.  I'm not sure which way we'll go but I still have to lean towards bullish outcomes for now.  GE was up 1/4 on average volume.  It looks as though we have put in a hammer here on the daily candlestick chart.  That bodes well for higher prices here.  Gold followed through to the upside on US dollar weakness.  The precious metal futures added another $10 to yesterdays stellar gains.  Could the traders here think that we'll get a weak GDP report followed by a dovish Fed?  Or is there something else behind the recent strength?  The XAU was up 2 3/8, while GDX gained 3/4.  Volume was good again showing that the gold shares are receiving some interest here.  The earnings for ABX were weaker than expected but it rallied anyway.  ABX gained 1/2 on good volume and closed above $13.  Some of the technical indicators for ABX are pretty extended in overbought territory.  My ABX May calls are showing a small profit.  I probably should get rid of them sooner rather than later.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Nothing to do now with respect to the stock market except wait to see the reaction to tomorrows developments.  The sideways summation index tells you that things can go either way.  The technicals are in the overbought zone but that doesn't mean it can't stay that way.  So we'll see.  Gold has had a couple of good days in a row and the indicators have roared back to the upside.  It's possible that gold is telling us what to expect tomorrow.  We'll know in less than 24 hours.  As usual we'll watch the overnight action and then see what tomorrow brings.

A one day reversal to the downside as the Dow opened higher and closed lower.  The Dow fell 42 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  The TRAN and the small stocks were weak today and that is not a positive.  The major stock indices have been short term overbought and weakness is overdue.  I don't think this is the beginning of some type of extended decline.  We've got GDP and the Fed on Wednesday and that should be an interesting day.  I would not be surprised if we see more downside this week.  GE was up slightly on average volume.  I'm still considering the June calls here but will wait for GE to get oversold before purchase.  Gold had a good day as the futures rose $28.  The US dollar was weaker as well.  Not sure where the above average strength in gold came from.  The XAU rose 1 3/4 and GDX added 3/8.  Volume was good for the gold shares but we finished well off of the highs for the session.  ABX broke above $13 on heavy volume so I put in an order for the May calls in case it pulled back.  It did and the order was filled.  Unfortunately for me, ABX kept moving lower.  It finished the day up 1/4 on heavy volume.  Perhaps it was a false break out.  The May calls I bought are already losers.  Earnings are out for ABX tomorrow morning.  That will probably make or break this trade.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  One day doesn't make a trend but it wasn't a good start to the week for stocks.  We'll have to see how the summation index looks after todays price action.  If that rolls over, we could be in for more than a couple days of weakness.  I don't expect any surprises from the Fed.  Gold and silver moved up pretty good today.  Not even close to overbought for these two.  However it could just be a one day wonder.  Time will tell on that.  I may have made a mistake with this ABX May call trade.  It certainly looked like a valid break out to the upside.  Tomorrows earnings will tell the story there.  We'll keep an eye on the foreign markets overnight and see what happens tomorrow.

The drift higher continues as the Dow tacked on another 21 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were about even.  The NASDAQ is now setting new all time highs and the response is a yawn.  That is bullish.  The small stocks continue to out perform and things won't get all that bearish under these conditions in my view.  We are due for a rest though as the short term overbought condition for the major stock indices is getting long in the tooth.  I don't see any huge declines coming though.  GE was off a few cents and the volume was light.  Not oversold here yet.  The plan remains to get some GE June calls when it gets oversold.  Gold got walloped today and fell almost $20 on the futures.  The US dollar was lower as well.  The XAU only dropped 2/3 and GDX shed 3/8.  Volume was light.  The gold share indexes were helped by the positive earnings report from NEM.  FCX was higher today as well.  I'm now thinking that perhaps some ABX calls before its earnings report could be a trade.  NEM benefited from its cost cutting plan and ABX has a similar course of action.  Something to ponder over the weekend.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Declines can be bought in my opinion for the major stock indices.  I don't see anything near term to derail the upside.  The advance/decline line continues to make new highs.  we've got the Fed meeting next week but I don't see any surprises coming from that.  The first quarter GDP number will probably be the biggest market mover.  But that's a guess as usual.  The gold shares holding up in the face of the declining metal is a positive for them.  That kind of out performance usually leads to higher gold share prices.  However we are not completely oversold on the gold shares and I don't want to jump the gun.  This is also not a seasonally strong period for gold.  So there is plenty to consider before putting on a trade here.  It never gets easy.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend and trying to come up with something that seems reasonable to attempt.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break. 

Grinding higher as the Dow added 20 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  We were higher for much of the session but drifted off in the final hour.  Some new intra-day all time highs today for various major stock indices.  We are however, still short term overbought on numerous technical indicators.  I don't have any SPY trading ideas at the moment.  GE was off 6 cents on average volume.  Waiting for an oversold condition here to purchase the June calls.  Gold was up $7 on the futures as the US dollar had a weak session.  The XAU gained 1 1/4, while GDX rose 1/2.  Volume was decent to the upside.  Still overbought for the gold shares and patience is required before getting any calls here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Although overbought, the market has the feel as though it wants to move higher.  The small stocks are holding up quite well and the TRAN has been moving higher of late.  I do not want to chase things here.  However if we break out to the upside, there is no overhead resistance.  I suppose you really don't want to miss that because there could be some good gains in a short amount of time.  I'll keep an eye on things.  Patience is my mantra for the gold market right now.  We'll finish out the trading week tomorrow. 

Continuing higher as the Dow rose 88 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  Still trying to get to new all time highs for the major stock indices but not there yet.  The summation index is tracking sideways.  The breadth hasn't been all that great heading up this time.  So perhaps some more backing and filling is necessary.  But that is a guess on my part.  One solid up day with good breadth could change things.  No SPY trades for now.  GE finally showed some life and rose almost 1/3 on good volume.  There was plenty of volume yesterday in the GE June 27 puts and calls.  Way above average and the open interest expanded.  I don't know what it means but the GE June 27 calls were on my radar even before yesterday.  Waiting for GE to get oversold before purchase.  Gold fell over $15 on the futures today.  The US dollar finished the session little changed again.  The XAU dropped 1 7/8, while GDX shed 2/3.  Volume picked up to the downside.  Not sure what to make of it but it could be the beginning of another leg down in the precious metals complex.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The small stocks continue to be holding up well here and that lends to the bullish cause.  However the short term technical indicators are in the overbought zone.  They could stay that way though if we continue higher.  It is looking as though last Fridays decline was a one day affair.  I'm going to hold off on any option purchases for this week.  That is the game plan for now.  Patience is also advised for calls on the gold shares.  It appears that we have just rolled over there.  Time will tell on that.  We'll see if the foreign markets follow the US higher overnight and see what happens tomorrow. 

A one day reversal to the downside as the Dow opened higher and closed lower.  The most watched index fell 85 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were about even.  It was a mixed bag as the small stocks continued higher.  The TRAN was up as well.  So I don't know what to make of things at the moment.  But I am looking for higher prices eventually in the coming weeks.  No trades in the SPY yet though.  GE was off 40 cents and the volume remains heavy.  Getting close to $26.50 but I am in no hurry to get the calls here.  There is a huge gap to be filled as well here on the daily chart.  Perhaps I'll wait until GE gets back to the 50 day moving average.  We'll see.  Gold was up almost $10 on the futures today.  The US dollar finished the session about unchanged.  The XAU and GDX barely moved.  Volume remains very light for the gold shares.  No trades here for now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Still in a waiting game for the major stock indices at this point.  A break out or a break down remains the question.  There is also the prospect of the continuation of the sideways price action that has been going on for the past 2 1/2 months.  I am probably at least going to wait for this week to pass before considering a trade in the SPY.  There isn't a good signal yet and sometimes you just have to be patient.  This seems to be one of those times.  Gold remains a light volume drift for the past 2 weeks.  Light volume usually means little interest.  That is the case right now for the precious metals.  Once again, there is no need to rush anything here either.  So we sit and wait for the right time and opportunity.  We'll watch the overnight action as usual and see what tomorrow brings.

Back to the upside as the Dow gained 208 points on light volume.  the advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive.  Sometimes the day following option expiration has the opposite price action of the expiration itself.  This occurs quite frequently.  We'll have to see how the rest of the week plays out to get a better idea of where we are going.  The small stocks and the TRAN had good days and that is a plus for the bulls.  The summation index did roll over on Friday but todays action should bring us back to at least sideways there.  No SPY trades right now.  GE was off 1/4 and the volume remains heavy.  We still haven't made any gains here after the restructuring announcement.  However I am still in the camp of getting some calls if we get back to $26.50.  That is the idea here for now.  Gold was off almost $10 on the futures as the US dollar rose today.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume.  No trades for me in the gold shares until they get oversold and they aren't even close to that.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A whipsaw market for the past two days and that isn't easy to attempt to trade.  We've just rolled into the May option cycle so there is no hurry to act.  Patience is needed now until we get a decent signal.  However if by chance we break out to the upside, we need to get on board because there is no overhead resistance.  I thought perhaps we'd break out last month but we didn't.  Keep an eye out for that.  The gold shares continue to outperform but the volume is light.  Plus gold itself does not look interesting right now.  I'm simply going to wait for a set up here but I don't know how long it will take.  The seasonal timing for gold here is not bullish as well.  There is no rush to do anything yet.  We'll watch what happens in the foreign arena overnight and go from there.   

A decidedly negative finish to the week as the Dow fell 279 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative.  This should turn the summation index back down.  I don't think that this is the beginning of something big to the downside but I certainly don't know.  We were overbought on the major stock indices and today begins to alleviate that condition.  There are rumblings about Greece again and the European markets were weak overnight.  We'll have to see what happens Monday to get a better feel for what is going on.  GE ended flat on the session as it was up and down on the earnings report.  We never made it back to the highs of last Friday during this whole week.  I'm still thinking of getting the calls again if we get back to $26.50.  Until then, it's a waiting game.  Gold was up $5 on the futures as the US dollar stopped going down.  The XAU and GDX were flat on the session.  Volume was light.  The gold shares are overbought at the moment.  Patience is the strategy for now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A weak close to the week but we did finish above the lows for the day.  I don't know what brought about todays activity but there were sellers around.  It is now a matter of waiting for the next decent signal for the SPY.  We'll roll into the May option cycle with hopefully an open mind.  Not a lot of economic data out next week.  It looks like the Bollinger bands are converging on the daily gold chart.  This implies some type of move coming there.  As always, which way is the question.  The gold shares are short term overbought.  The weekly charts have more room to move higher.  I'll need to see things get oversold before I can feel good about putting on a trade here.  But who knows?  I'll be checking the charts again over the weekend and see what I can come up with.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Running in place today as the Dow lost 6 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  Still short term overbought and getting there medium term now as well.  Simply waiting for the next signal with respect to the SPY.  Option expiration tomorrow and we will roll over to the May cycle.  GE was off over 1/8 and the volume remains heavy.  Earnings here tomorrow should get things moving.  Gold was off a few bucks despite the US dollar getting hammered again.  That isn't bullish for the precious metal.  The XAU fell 7/8 and GDX was off 1/4.  Volume was nothing special.  No hurry to do any trading in the gold shares right now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  No good trading ideas at the moment in my mind.  At all time highs for some of the stock indices but not there for others.  The TRAN is lagging quite a lot here.  Not sure what it means.  The small stocks are holding up OK.  Most of the indexes are overbought though and perhaps a pause is due once we get past the expiration.  Otherwise it's a waiting game for the next opportunity.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments and finish off the week tomorrow.

Trying to head higher as the Dow gained 75 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues to the upside.  New all time highs today for some of the stock indices.  Others are knocking on the door.  A negative today was the TRAN though, as it finished well off of its highs.  I dumped the SPY April calls that I had for a gain of around 35%.  I didn't get the best price of the day but I could not hold on to this trade any longer.  Even with 2 days left here, I could not risk it.  The technical indicators are short term overbought for the major stock indices.  We could stay that way but we could roll over here as well.  GE was off 1/4 and the volume is still heavy.  We haven't been able to build on the gains of last Friday here.  Earnings due in 2 days.  A move back to $26.50 will get me interested in the calls again.  Gold was up 8 bucks today on the futures.  The US dollar continues to decline.  A weaker dollar helps support the stock market here as well.  The XAU gained 2 3/4, while GDX added 1/2.  Volume picked up to the upside.  ABX is at the top of its trend channel here at $13.  I'll wait for it to head back down to the bottom of the channel before attempting the calls.  Or it could be that the down trend for the gold shares is over here and I simply have missed the boat.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So now it's a matter of finding the next trade.  I'm still leaning to the bullish side for now, even with the overbought condition.  If the S&P 500 breaks out to a new high, there is no overhead resistance.  But perhaps patience will be the best course of action for now.  GE has the earnings report on Friday.  I suppose if I had more guts, I could buy the at the money puts and calls tomorrow and see what happens.  One side would expire worthless and the other would be profitable.  That is how it would work in theory anyway.  Gold seems to be in a drift at the moment.  However the gold shares have out performed recently and that is a positive.  We are entering a period of possible under performance for gold according to the calendar.  Any gold share call buying should probably be postponed for now.  That's my best guess at the moment.  We'll watch what happens overnight and go from there.  

A mixed bag today as the Dow gained 59 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The small stocks were weaker today and that is bearish.  However the summation index continues higher.  My SPY April calls are still losers with only 3 days left in the April option cycle.  Retail sales came in about where expected.  We get the Fed beige book tomorrow and that could get things moving.  I'm going to have to dump this trade soon as time is running out.  GE was up a dime on still heavy volume.  Earnings due Friday morning.  No trade for me here as the risk outweighs the reward at this point.  However if GE pulls back to the recent breakout point, calls will be in order.  Gold was off 6 bucks on the futures despite a pretty good drop in the US dollar.  The XAU was up 3/4, while GDX rose 1/8.  Volume was light.  There is no hurry to trade the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm thinking that if my SPY April calls get to positive territory in the next day or so, I'll sell them at whatever I can get.  Otherwise this trade will be a loser.  I do not want to take a big % loss here.  So attention must be paid.  The short term technical indicators remain overbought on the major stock indexes.  So we'll see what happens tomorrow.  I may have to wait on the Feds beige book.  We are still knocking on the door for new all time highs.  We'll keep an eye on the overseas developments and see what tomorrow brings.

A one day reversal to the downside to begin expiration week as the Dow opened higher and closed lower.  The Dow fell 80 points on very light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  Not a good start to the week for the bulls.  The summation index is still moving higher but another day like today will change that.  My SPY April calls had a slight profit this morning but are now losers.  I'm at least going to give them until tomorrow, with retail sales coming out in the morning.  We also have the Fed beige book on Wednesday.  However I cannot hold this trade forever.  GE opened with a gap lower and never recovered.  It fell 7/8 on very heavy volume.  There was a negative article about GE in Barrons over the weekend, so the good feelings of the restructuring got wiped out quickly.  There are still the earnings on Friday to digest.  My GE April calls never got back to the ten bagger that they were at the close on Friday.  I decided to just take what I could get and be thankful for that.  I dumped the calls for a 600% profit.  Luck was the overriding factor in that trade.  Gold fell $5 on the futures as the US dollar was little changed by the end of the session.  The XAU lost a point and GDX was down 1/8 or so.  Volume was light.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Almost back to full strength as well.  We are knocking on the door to new all time highs on some of the major stock indices.  We will need to see some kind of catalyst to move higher and I'm not sure what that could be.  Unless we head higher tomorrow, I'm afraid that the SPY April call trade will be a loser.  Todays price action was not positive.  The only plus was the very light volume.  More an absence of buyers, then real selling.  But that could all change in a flash.  I'll be keeping an eye on things.  GE did not have any positive follow through.  It was disappointing but that trade is over now.  I'm advising patience for the gold shares.  Calls will be in order again once we get back to oversold territory.  It should take a while.  Earnings will be another hurdle to get over in a month or so.  No rush to put on a call trade here.  We'll see if the foreign markets follow the Dow lower overnight and take it from there.

The drift higher continues as the Dow rose 99 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  Getting to short term overbought on the daily technicals.  The summation index continues higher.  Expiration week on deck and perhaps the positive bias will take effect.  The small stocks aren't outperforming lately and that is a cause for concern.  However the TRAN has turned things around and that is a plus.  My SPY April calls are now showing a small profit.  The best move here will probably be to sell them early next week.  GE had a day for the ages as it rose 10% on extraordinary volume. Now money managers are trying to determine how the restructuring announced yesterday puts a number on the price of the stock.  Obviously people think that now GE is worth a lot more than it was on Monday.  The GE April calls that were almost worthless Monday are now worth ten times what I paid for them.  Only one way to describe that, sheer luck.  On the GE weekly chart there is now a high volume breakout from a sideways consolidation that lasted for about a year and a half.  This move is for real.  Gold was up over $10 today on the futures despite another rise in the US dollar.  Not sure what that means.  The XAU rose 1 1/2, while GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was better than it has been but nothing heavy.  The technical indicators for the gold shares are in the short term overbought region.  Mentally I'm feeling OK and getting better physically as well.  Some of the major stock indices are getting close to new all time highs again.  However to break through, I think we would need some kind of positive catalyst.  I don't see anything like that here.  But what do I know?  We are due for some type of pause because the volume this week has been light and the breadth hasn't been all that great.  But the market will go where it wants to.  It will be interesting to see if GE continues to keep going straight up on Monday.  I'll need to sell those GE April calls at some point next week.  Gold has had some buyers in the past few weeks but I don't think that it is the start of anything substantial.  ABX remains the stock of choice there for now as it continues to outperform.  The problem is that once everybody knows which stock is doing better, it usually means that it's too late.  I don't have any gold share trades in the works right now.  I'll be resting and checking the charts over the weekend.  Having a solid game plan for next week is a must.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Moving higher now as the Dow gained 56 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were only about even though.  The summation index is heading up.  Not sure what to make of things here.  The short term technical indicators for the major indices have turned up but without any conviction.  My SPY April calls are still showing a loss.  GE was the star of the day, rising almost 3/4 on heavy volume.  GE is selling its real estate portfolio and the market viewed it as a positive.  Talk about a market miracle.  My GE April calls are now back to break even.  Perhaps I won't be waiting for the earnings report.  Gold was off about $10 on the futures as the US dollar had a strong session yet again.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on extremely light volume.  Mentally and physically I remain tired.  I'm hoping to be at full strength after the weekend.  It's impossible to make the right decisions with a foggy mind.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow today but the weak advance/declines says we may be in for a couple of days rest.  Expiration week on the horizon and I'm banking on the usual positive bias.  But the market will go where it wants.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

It was a day with some volatility but we finished the session with a gain of 27 points on light volume.  The advance /declines were positive.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow, with the small stocks leading the way.  That's usually bullish going forward.  We did get some gyrations with the Fed minutes.  Things still could go either way.  My SPY April calls are in the red with only 7 days to go.  GE was flat on the session and volume is very light.  Looks like I'll be holding out for the earnings report here due in ten days.  Gold was off $7 on the futures and the US dollar was up just a bit.  The XAU fell a point and GDX had a small fractional loss.  No trades in the gold shares for me right now.  Mentally I'm feeling tired and physically as well.  Trading is hard enough under normal conditions.  Being ill makes it next to impossible.  I'm doing the best I can under the conditions.  The TRAN had a good day and that could mean higher prices are coming.  That doesn't mean we won't be lower tomorrow but it is encouraging going out a few days.  I'll need to see some kind of rally in the stock indexes to have any chance to exit the SPY April call trade with a profit.  I'm cutting things short again today as I do need to get some rest.  Hopefully I'll be feeling better tomorrow.  One thing that is for sure is that the markets move on with or without you, regardless of your health.  It is neither good nor bad, just simply the way things are in this game.

Yesterday was a one day reversal to the upside on the weak employment report.  Today was a one day reversal to the downside as the Dow fell 5 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  We are still searching for a trend here as the market has been basically sideways for while.  The short term technical indicators are trying to move to the upside but there is no sustained momentum.  My SPY April calls remain in the red.  GE was off 1/8 or so on very light volume.  GE cannot get anything going to the upside and my GE April calls will end up dead.  Unless we see a huge rally in the market or blowout earnings numbers, this trade is a loser.  Gold lost $8 on the futures as the US dollar had a strong day.  The XAU lost 1 3/8, while GDX shed 1/2.  Volume was light.  The gold shares have had some strength lately but now are short term overbought.  Mentally I'm feeling OK but physically I'm still under the weather.  The market continues to frustrate both the bulls and the bears.  Over the weekend it appeared that the bottom was ready to fall out on the employment report.  The S&P 500 futures had sold off over 20 points.  But then Monday morning came around and the market finished the day to the upside.  Today we saw follow through progress early in the day to only have it all vanish in the final hour.  That certainly isn't bullish.  So we'll have to see what happens for the rest of the week.  The summation index did turn back to the upside yesterday.  I think that the upside in the gold shares might be over.  ABX was the correct choice because it certainly out performed the gold share indices.  I'll be looking to get some calls there again when gold begins to drop.  I'm considering going out to October and there is no hurry to purchase.  I'll be trying to get some rest tonight and we'll follow things as they happen tomorrow.

My apologies but there will be no blog today.  I am ill again.  It has been a rough winter for me.  Hopefully I'll be able to do a re-cap tomorrow.

A wait and see type of day as the Dow gained 65 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  Todays market action should move the summation index to the upside but it is really locked in a sideways channel.  We'll get the job numbers tomorrow and then wait all weekend to get the reaction.  The McClellan oscillator is forecasting a decent move in the averages.  Which way is the question.  My SPY April calls are still in the red.  GE was up a dime and the volume was light.  It is looking more and more as if I will hold these things until the earnings report at the close of expiration week.  Needless to say I should have sold them for a loss long ago.  Gold was off $7 on the futures despite a drop in the US dollar.  The employment report should get these two trading vehicles moving too.  The XAU was off about a buck and GDX shed 1/4.  Volume was lighter.  I still like ABX for my gold share trading at this time.  But I do not have any trades in mind for gold right now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So we will have to see which way things are going to go here.  The action in TRAN today was negative and if it continues to break down the averages will follow.  But until we open on Monday, it's all a guess.  There's an extra day to think about it all as well.  So we'll wait and see.  My SPY April call trade will hang in the balance.  There isn't anything else to report.  We'll check the charts over the weekend and watch for news post the employment numbers.  It's a long holiday weekend.  Perhaps it's time to forget about the market for a couple of days. 

Another sell off to begin the month as the Dow fell 78 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were positive though.  The Dow was off over 175 early and spent the rest of the day trying to come back.  I canceled my stop loss order overnight as I feel that the market is going to turn back up here.  The technical work that I do is pointing towards that.  It doesn't mean that it will happen but the odds favor that it does.  The summation index is heading sideways here.  But make no mistake.  The S&P 500 needs to hold the 2050 level or things will go lower in a hurry.  GE was up a few cents as it came off of its lows as well.  GE needs to get going to the upside or the GE April call trade could be a total loss.  Gold found buyers to start the month as the futures gained $25 out of the blue.  The US dollar was lower but not enough to generate a move like that in gold.  The XAU rose 3 3/8, while GDX was up a point.  Volume surged to the upside and that is bullish.  ABX was up over a buck on huge volume.  That is almost 10% in one day for this issue.  Needless to say I would have made a lot more money if I would have held onto the ABX April call trade.  This stock is showing the best relative strength now.  I'm looking at the May and the October calls.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I will say that my read on the markets have been off lately.  I expected a slow week due to the holiday and it has been anything but that.  So I don't know what tomorrow will bring.  The short term technical indicators for the major stock indices are still oversold.  Tomorrow should be a waiting game for Fridays employment report.  But anything can happen.  I'd expect some follow through for gold here, so we'll see what happens.  My tactics on the recent ABX April call trade were wrong as well.  A profitable trade it was but much was left on the table.  I suppose I could have bought them back yesterday but I was looking out further in time.  Hindsight is never wrong.  We'll see how things close out for the week tomorrow.