A mixed market today as we digest the recent gains.  The Dow was up 6 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative.  The overall market was much weaker than the Dow.  We dropped hard in the last half hour and that's a near term negative.  I'm still a believer in higher prices and will try the SPY February calls if I get the chance.  Patience might be needed here though.  We do have employment data to muddle through on Friday.  GE was off 1/3 and the volume was light.  GE hasn't really moved up with the overall market here and that is not a good sign.  But that could change.  Gold rose about $5 on the futures and the US dollar came back up today.  The XAU was up 1 1/8, while GDX gained 3/8.  We have built a tight small coil on the gold share indexes.  We'll have to see which way it breaks out.  The gold shares indexes have also stalled at their 200 day moving averages.  I'd be guessing if I said which way I think things can go here.  Shorter term the technical are mid-range.  Longer term, we're overbought.  Mentally I'm feeling tired, not 100% just yet.  It appears that problems in Greece are about to take center stage again.  That could roil the markets tomorrow and might provide some support and buying in gold and the US dollar.  We'll see.  Perhaps it will provide an opportunity for the SPY February calls.  USO was lower today.  Maybe the short covering rally there is over.  One thing that hasn't changed is volatility.  It remains a condition that has to be dealt with at this time.  I need to get some rest so once again I am cutting this short.  It will be interesting to see what happens on the Greece news tomorrow. 

Quite a move today as the Dow roared 305 points higher on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive.  The summation index is heading higher.  Well, at least my ideas are heading in the right direction.  But money needs to be made.  I think we'll see new all time highs by expiration in February.  The ideal buy time was yesterday morning but there is probably still time to make a trade.  Any decline will be bought.  There are no more sellers for now.  The bounce in oil is probably as good a reason as anything.  However the technical set-up was there, I just didn't have the right orders placed.  Too slow to make any adjustments didn't help either.  At least I'm starting to feel a bit better though.  GE was up 1/4 and the volume was average.  Perhaps the GE March call trade will work itself out.  Gold fell $15 on the futures and the US dollar had a weak session for a change.  Perhaps the flight to safety trade is over.  The XAU dropped 1 1/2, while GDX lost 1/2.  USO was up a point and has had a nice bounce.  Mentally I'm feeling OK despite missing this huge two day move.  There will be plenty of trades to make this year anyway.  Physically I'm regaining strength and should be back to normal by the end of the week.  I'd expect some backing and filling ahead of the employment report.  But it would be no surprise to just keep heading higher.  I'm pretty sure new all time highs for the major stock indices will be coming in the next 2 1/2 weeks.  Hopefully I'll be able to position something for a profit before then.  The dollar dropped hard today and gold didn't rally.  That isn't bullish for the precious metal.  It doesn't mean that it will be heading for a big drop but it may signal sideways to lower near term.  That's a guess as usual.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight news and see what tomorrow brings.

Volatility reigns as we started off the month with a one day reversal to the upside.  The Dow gained 196 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive.  Today was probably the day to buy the SPY February calls.  I did have an order in overnight but it was not filled.  I'll be looking to get something on any weakness in the next few days before the employment report but it might already be too late.  The short term technical indicators are already moving up.  I'm not at 100% physically yet and I suppose I can blame the missed chance on that.  But there are no excuses in this game.  GE was up 1/3 on OK volume.  My GE March calls here are still losers.  Gold fell a couple bucks on the futures as the US dollar was a bit lower as well.  The XAU was up a point while GDX was flat.  I'm guessing gold is due for a breather here.  USO was up again but I would not call this a rally there just yet.  Mentally I'm still a little slow.  A positive turnaround for stocks today and the final hour saw a good jump and that is bullish.  A bigger look at things says this can still be considered a consolidation of the rally that occurred in Oct/Nov.  That is still my point of view.  You could think that the market is just trying to hold on before it collapses beneath the recent lows.  That is another way to look at things here.  But I'm sticking with a bullish resolution and will try and get some SPY February calls.  I need to get some more rest.  We'll see if the foreign markets follow the Dow higher overnight. 

Once again back to the downside to close out the week and the month.  The Dow fell 252 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  We closed below the 2000 level on the S&P 500.  We are at the bottom of the trading range for this index again.  I did place an order for the SPY February calls during the session but canceled it about an hour later.  I'm still feeling sick and cannot trade under this condition.  My mind is dull.  I will hopefully get better over the weekend.  Getting to short term oversold on the stock indices but falling apart again in the final hour is bearish.  GE was down about 20 cents and the volume was heavy.  Gold found a bid on the market decline with the futures up over $20.  The US dollar rose slightly.  The XAU came back 2 1/4, while GDX added 3/4.  We've basically been sideways for the gold shares the past two weeks.  Mentally I'm slow and not feeling well physically.  I'm still a believer in the long side for the stock indexes here but that could be way off too.  We've either put in a pretty big top on the stock indices or a consolidation zone before heading higher.  I tend to agree with the latter choice.  The summation index has been moving sideways.  I need rest so I am cutting this short again.  I don't know how much work that I'll be able to do over the weekend.  There's still three weeks to go in the February option cycle.  The opportunity for profit is there.

Back to the upside today as the Dow gained 225 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  I have the flu again and did not get out of bed to take advantage of picking up some SPY calls this morning.  I did place an overnight order for the SPY calls but it was not filled.  That fact that we held at around the 2000 level again in the S&P 500 leads me to believe that calls are in order.  However if we were to drop below that level and stay there, I would change my mind.  Perhaps there will a chance to buy some calls tomorrow.  GE was up 1/4 and the volume was good.  Gold fell $30 on the futures as the US dollar was only slightly higher.  The gold shares held up batter as the XAU lost only 1 1/3, while GDX fell 1/3.  It's possible that the gold long trade is over for now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK, physically not so good.  I'm going to cut things short today since I am ill.  Bottom line, I'm looking for SPY February calls on weakness.  I'm going to get some rest and we'll see how things go on the GDP report tomorrow morning. 

The market had a one day negative reversal today, opening higher and closing lower.  The Dow dropped 195 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 negative.  It appears that we are at the moment of truth here for the major stock indices.  We are back at 2000 for the S&P 500.  Whether or not it holds up here will be the key.  The fact that we fell apart in the final hour is bearish.  The small stocks have been holding up better here so maybe we can stem the decline.  But the short term technical indicators have rolled over.  Tomorrow could be pretty important.  I'd still like to try the SPY February calls.  GE was off 1/2 and the volume was heavy.  This does not bode well for the overall market.  If GE takes out $23.50 it will probably spell trouble overall.  My GE March calls continue to shed premium.  Looks like another loser.  Gold was off five bucks on the futures as the US dollar bounced back.  The gold shares saw selling today.  The XAU fell 3 1/2, while GDX lost 7/8.  Volume picked up a bit here.  A lot of things saw selling today as USO sunk to a new low.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Perhaps the drop in oil today caused the late selling.  The Fed statement had nothing different.  We still have the GDP report on Friday.  I'm not quite sure what to make of the markets price action.  The recent breadth has been pretty good but prices have fallen.  You could make a case that we've been in a trading range since the start of December and we are now at the bottom of the range.  I'll have to check all the indicators later tonight and decide what to do or not do from there.  If we have built a top here we are going to head much lower.  The jury is still out.  Gold didn't find any buyers on the sell off and that may or may not mean something.  It along with the gold shares remains overbought.  I will have to be patient here to try the long side again.  There is a lot to consider overnight.  We'll look to see what happens overseas and take it from there.

The Dow took a hit today on poor earnings, mostly due to Microsoft.  The most watched index fell 291 points on lighter volume.  The advance/declines were negative but certainly not by the margin you would expect with the Dow down that much.  The summation index is still moving higher.  I still am looking at the SPY February calls.  I may purchase them tomorrow.  Now of course I could be wrong on this idea.  Perhaps waiting for the S&P 500 to test 2000 again would be a better plan.  So we'll see.  The short term technical indicators are move overbought than oversold so perhaps patience still is the best plan for now.  GE was off about 1/4 and the volume was average.  Indicators are rolling over here as well.  Perhaps there is more going on than I can tell but that is usually the case.  Gold gained $12 on the futures as the US dollar dropped almost a full point today.  The gold shares continue to attract money as the XAU rose 2 1/3, while GDX gained 3/4.  Overbought and staying there for the gold shares.  I'm not sure how long this can last but it's already been longer than I would have thought.  Perhaps the US dollar is going to take a break from its rally.  Maybe the tomorrows Fed statement will shed some light on todays price action in the dollar.  At least gold acted the way it normally would with the dollar weakness.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Tough trading at the moment as there is really no trend.  If the S&P 500 breaks through 2000 and stays there, it would be trouble in my opinion.  I'm still looking at the SPY calls if we get down there and the technical are oversold.  Plenty of time in the February option cycle.  My GE March calls are still in the red.  Gold hasn't reached the $1340 measuring objective yet.  The gold shares continue to outperform and that is bullish.  We'll see if the foreign markets follow the Dow lower and take it from there. 

Some upside today as the market is on its version of storm watch.  A blizzard is forecast for the tri-state area.  The Dow gained 6 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive.  The overall market remains stronger than the Dow.  I still think that the path of least resistance is up.  Sideways perhaps but I could be wrong.  If we do see some weakness, I'm probably going to try the SPY February calls.  We are short term overbought now on the major stock indices.  GE rose 1/8 and the volume was average.  Gold was off $13 on the futures and the US dollar was lower today as well.  The XAU gained 1 1/4 and GDX added 3/8.  Volume was lighter for the gold shares but it is impressive that they continued higher with the sell off in gold.  These issues are very overextended here right now.  I really do not want to chase them at this point.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Just waiting for some weakness here is about all that I can do.  We've got the Fed statement on Wednesday and GDP on Friday as potential market movers.  I'll try and remain patient.  USO was lower again today.  Oil is so blown out to the downside here that I find it hard to believe that it could go any lower.  However the markets move where they want.  Perhaps gold is about to take a breather here.  It certainly is due.  There is plenty of time in the February option cycle to find something to profit from.  Waiting for a decent set up will be the key.  I have an idea for the SPY but we will have to see if the market cooperates.  We'll keep an eye on the overseas market action and get ready for tomorrow.

A down day to end the week as the Dow fell 141 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative but not as much as a down 141 market would suggest.  The NASDAQ was higher on the session in a mixed market.  The summation index is now moving up.  I'm still leaning bullish here as we just got to short term overbought before today.  If we continue to pullback from here, I may try the SPY February calls.  The fact that the small stocks acted well here is bullish.  GE was up almost another 1/4 on the earnings and the volume was heavy.  GE was higher during the session.  It's a positive that GE showed a gain on a down day overall for stocks.  My GE March calls are still in the red though.  Gold dropped $8 on the futures as the US dollar continues to move straight up.  I really think that gold needs a breather as its rise along with the dollar cannot continue indefinitely.  The XAU fell 2 3/4, with GDX off 2/3.  Volume was light and that is a positive for the bulls.  USO dropped to a fresh new low.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm waiting for a good trade set up at the moment.  Although I think we are going to be moving higher, nothing is set in stone.  Plenty of time in the February option cycle as we just completed the extra week there.  The short term technical indicators for the stock indices have moved up.  Some economic data out next week, with GDP probably the most anticipated.  There isn't any rush to do anything.  GE had a good week and we will have to see if it builds on that.  Gold and the gold shares were higher but we are both short and medium term overbought there.  Earnings here are due next month.  So it is probably a time to be patient in my mind.  I'll be checking the charts out over the weekend as usual.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

And there we have it.  The Dow climbed 259 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were over 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index will be turning up after todays action.  The European central bank had its say and the market responded.  This is the rally that I expected to take place in the beginning of the year.  We will see new all time highs soon in my humble opinion.  Not getting the SPY February calls on Tuesday was once again a missed opportunity.  Trust me, it is frustrating but at least my ideas are moving in the right direction.  GE was up another 1/4 and the volume was good.  I get the feeling that the earnings will be well received tomorrow at this rate.  My GE March calls are still in the red though.  Gold was up $7 on the futures despite the US dollar having a huge upside advance.  The rally in the dollar has been non stop since last summer.  That fact that gold continues to rise in the face of a strong dollar is confounding.  Gold and the gold shares are very overbought now as well.  The XAU and GDX had very small fractional losses on the session.  A sell the news event for the gold shares on the ECB announcement.  I'll consider the gold shares if we get a pullback.  Mentally I'm feeling OK despite missing the SPY call trade.  What can you do?  When confidence gets shot during a losing streak, you tend to hesitate on the next trade attempt.  That is why the trading itself is what really matters and not the money.  I'll just keep looking for other trades as we move along in the February option cycle.  Calls will be the way to go on the stock indexes if we see any weakness.  I'm not one to chase strength usually but that should have been done in gold and the gold shares.  Patience is what will be required now.  We'll wait to see what GE has to report tomorrow and finish up the trading week.

A mostly positive day as the Dow gained 39 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still heading down but after today it will be on the verge of turning around.  I certainly think that we are going higher from here but we will have to get the European central bank statement out of the way tomorrow.  I have no idea how the market will react to whatever they have to say.  However we are turning up on the short term technical indicators for the major stock indices.  I'm still favoring the SPY calls here but would hope to see some pullback if I am going to do something.  It is probably too late anyway.  GE was up almost another 1/4 on average volume.  So far so good this week for GE.  But the earnings will determine the direction going forward.  It's a waiting game at this point.  Gold ended the day little changed on the futures but did bounce up and down during the session.  The US dollar was a bit lower today.  The XAU was off 7/8 and GDX shed 1/3.  Gold and the gold shares are over extended here.  Perhaps considering some calls if we get oversold down the road.  USO was up 1/3.  I think that I am going to disregard the oil trading from here on out.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So now we wait for the markets reaction to tomorrows announcement.  This has been played up as to be a major factor as to where the European economy is headed.  But I don't think anything can predict that.  All we care about is the market reaction and where we go from here.  There's a possibility that whatever happens has already been priced in as well.  So we'll see.  Gold has moved higher along with the US dollar and that is not the usual relationship.  There is also no threat of inflation right now, yet gold continues to climb.  What I see is money and volume going into gold and the gold shares.  You cannot deny that.  We'll have to see how much longer that lasts.  If we are lucky we'll get a snap back to the reverse head and shoulders breakout.  If that occurs that would be the logical spot to purchase calls.  We'll watch and wait for whatever comes out of Europe tomorrow.  It should be interesting to say the least.

Bouncing around post expiration as the Dow rose 3 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  We opened higher, then spent much of the day in negative territory before heading back up again.  I did want to but some SPY February calls but held off.  There will be some kind of announcement coming from the European central bank on Thursday.  Markets will move off of that.  Which way is the question.  We are oversold on the major stock index technicals.  I will probably stay on the sidelines.  GE was up 1/4 and the volume was good.  This could bode well for the overall market if it continues.  My GE March calls are still well in the red.  Earnings on Friday.  Gold continues to find buyers as the futures rose $15.  The US dollar was higher as well.  These two are marching up in tandem and that is not the usual course.  Uncertainty and the flight to safety seem to be working overtime here.  USO dropped 7/8 as there is no stability in oil just yet.  The XAU was up 2 1/2 and GDX gained 3/4.  Volume remains pretty good here although the overbought condition persists.  I do not advise chasing this move as it has been missed by me.  Perhaps I can think about the calls if we see some pullback to the breakout point.  The reverse head and shoulders measurement for gold remains at $1340.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I suppose we are in a wait and see mode for now with regards to the stock indices.  I do think that it is possible that we are in a consolidation from the rise that began in October.  If that is the case then we will see the new highs that I've been looking for when the year started.  But it hasn't happened yet.  Any break of the recent lows for stocks will negate that theory.  Although I wanted to buy some index calls today, I did not.  My confidence is at a low.  Missing out on the gold shares and trying USO instead was a mistake that lingers.  I really need to get back to a better trading state of mind.  The GE March call trade might have a chance if we get a rise in GE off of the earnings.  But that has yet to be proven either.  I'll simply sit tight for now.

A positive end to the week as the Dow gained 196 points on expiration Friday.  The advance/declines were about 5 to 1 positive and the volume was heavy.  The summation index is still heading lower but another day like today and we'll be back to sideways there.  I can't make out what is going on here and I'm not going to try.  We were short term oversold on the stock indices after yesterdays action and a bounce was due.  What happens from here will determine if the decline continues or perhaps some type of rally will start.  You can make a case that we are in a sideways consolidation following the rally in October but that is yet to be seen.  Todays price action does stop the decline for a day at least.  GE was basically flat on the session and volume was heavy.  I assumed the earnings were coming due today since they usually arrive on the third Friday in January but they are out next week.  So I suppose I'll be holding the GE March call trade until then at least.  Gold was up another 12 bucks on the futures for its best week in a while.  This despite another rise in the US dollar.  The XAU added 2 1/3 and GDX rose 2/3.  Volume was heavy once again here for the gold shares.  Overbought and staying there so there is no denying the strength that we are seeing here.  I'm guessing that pullbacks will be bought here for the near term future.  USO was up around 7/8 and perhaps oil is finding a resting place finally.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A holiday weekend for the US on tap.  The February option cycle also has an extra week on it.  So I suppose there is certainly no hurry to do anything right now.  My ideas and trading have been way off to start the year and we are only halfway through the first month.  Perhaps now we'll see the rally to new highs that I was looking for after most of the January index calls were clobbered.  There may be enough fear out there to get something going in a positive direction.  But who knows?  I haven't done anything correctly lately.  Gold and the gold shares have broken out but it really looks like it is too late to do anything there.  Maybe it's time to look at the USO long trade again.  Or perhaps the sidelines might be the place for me after the rough start.  Plenty to think about in the next three days.  I'll be checking the charts as usual.  Perhaps I'll have to wait and see how the GE trade pans out before trying some thing else.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The Dow fell 104 points and closed near the low of the day.  Volume was good once again and the advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  The up trend lines from October on the various stock indices have been broken.  I certainly do not know what is going on in the markets at this time.  A surprise currency announcement from Switzerland changed the landscape today.  Once again there are things going on that I do not have the information on.  However the market reflects all that is known and unknown supposedly.  But it doesn't like uncertainty and that is where we are at now.  GE was off 1/8 on lighter volume ahead of the earnings.  Perhaps as GE goes tomorrow so does the market.  The GE March call trade hangs in the balance.  Gold soared on the news from the Swiss.  The futures were up $30.  The US dollar was up a bit on the session as well.  The XAU rose almost 4 points and GDX gained 1 1/4.  Volume was huge for the gold shares.  Gains on the day for some of the gold shares were close to 10%.  Technically these issues are overbought.  The two day decline this week can be viewed as a snap back to the breakout point for the gold share indices.  I'll have to look at the calls here again if we get any weakness.  Price and volume are very positive.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It's been a tough week for stocks and I don't see anything to turn things around in the near term.  We are working our way to a short term oversold condition.  There is a holiday weekend in the US coming up.  I don't see a lot of buying before that but you never know.  The usual positive bias for expiration week did not materialize.  Oil headed back down today and until we at least see some stabilization there, the market will be on edge.  Once again I've been completely off on my theory and trading at the start of this year.  Gold appears to have broken out from a reverse head and shoulders pattern on the daily candlestick chart.  The measuring objective would be to about the $1340 level.  I'm looking at the February ABX and GDX calls.  But I'll need to see the technical indicators come off of their overbought levels.  We'll watch and see if there are any other foreign market surprises overnight and close out the week tomorrow.  

Another loser as the Dow fell 186 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were negative but it wasn't even 2 to 1.  That is one of the things that leads me to believe that this isn't the end of the world here.  The summation index is heading lower but not with any steam.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  We did break the up trend line from October today in some of the major averages but came back to close right on the line.  Volatility has been pretty rampant lately.  But I do not see any type of crash event or falling apart for stocks here.  The OEX January call trade that I did was a 100% loss.  My theory and timing were way off.  The stop loss order I placed did not work and I should have just exited when that happened.  I suppose that I still do not have the discipline necessary to be consistently successful.  However my take on the stock market for the beginning of 2015 was way off.  There will never be any profits with those kind of mistakes.  GE was off a few cents after being lower on the session.  The volume was good.  Short term oversold for GE now.  Earnings on Friday.  My GE March calls are in the red and almost to the 50% loss threshold.  I'm going to wait on the earnings here.  Gold was flat on the futures as we did not see any flight to safety here.  The US dollar was a bit lower today.  The XAU fell 2 points and GDX had a small fractional loss.  The weakness in the gold shares the past two days may be a sign of things to come.  Or not.  We'll have to see how it plays out.  Working off the short term overbought condition is one way to look at it.  USO was up 3/4 on good volume and that is the best day we've seen there in a while.  Maybe I sold those February calls too early.  Mentally I'm doing OK.  A rough start to the year for stocks but I don't think that we are on the verge of a rout.  The major stock indexes are getting to short term overbought.  I could be mistaken but I think that we will start to move higher from here.  If oil can stabilize, that fear will be removed.  Retail sales did come in weaker than expected but that is just one months data.  I'm still a believer that this will be a good year for the stock market.  Nothing to do but wait on GE for Fridays numbers.  It could be the catalyst that starts to turn the market higher.  Or it could have the opposite effect.  We'll see.  My trading so far this year has been a disaster.  Stop loss orders that weren't filled, poor market judgment, terrible timing and lack of discipline.  Perhaps a break is necessary.  Maybe after this GE trade is completed.  I think that I had too many trades going on at the same time to start the new year as well.  I'm going to have to just keep things simple.  Only two days left in the trading week and the January option cycle.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight action and see what tomorrow brings.  

We opened higher and closed lower today and that is usually not a good sign.  The Dow fell 27 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index has turned down but still shows a sideways pattern for now.  My OEX January calls are worthless.  Nothing will save them at this point.  We are right at the important up trend line from October.  It doesn't look like it is going to hold.  Retail sales will be the driver tomorrow.  GE was off 1/4 and the volume was good.  We're almost at the 50% loss threshold for this trade.  I'd still like to hold on until the earnings on Friday.  Gold was flat on the day, while the US dollar continues to move higher.  The XAU fell 3 3/4 and GDX dropped almost a point.  The relative weakness for the gold shares is not a positive.  USO was up almost a 1/4.  I don't have any trades in mind for gold or oil at this time.  Mentally I'm feeling tired as a change in my schedule today has left me listless.  The day started out as if the stock indices might see upside gains for the day.  But as the trading went on, sellers emerged.  If we can't get things going to the upside soon the market could be in trouble.  Hasn't happened yet.  My trading has been terrible already but as usual the market doesn't care.  I'm a bit tired.  So we'll see what happens tomorrow.

Almost another triple digit move as the Dow fell 96 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative.  This should move the summation index lower.  However it appears that the summation index is actually moving sideways at this time.  I can't say that I understand the market dynamics at this point.  We are trying to find our way here.  The up trend line from October is still intact.  As long as that holds, I'll continue with a bullish posture and call for new all time highs at some point this month.  My OEX January calls are going to be big losers and will probably expire worthless.  GE was off a nickel and the volume was average.  Waiting on Fridays earnings here.  That will most likely determine the outcome of the GE March call trade.  Gold continues to rally as it gained over $15 on the futures.  The US dollar was slightly higher today.  The XAU was up 2 7/8.  The gold shares had good volume to the upside and that is a positive sign.  The fact that gold can rally with oil declining and the dollar rising is something to take note of.  However gold and the gold shares are now overbought.  USO fell 7/8 and I sold the USO February calls for a 90% loss.  The stop loss order did not work here as well and that is something that I will have to correct on my own.  The discipline required to trade must be followed or losses will just continue to pile up.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Not exactly sure what to think of the market here as the technicals are mid-range.  We could go either way.  The positive expiration week bias is not evident yet.  The lack of upside follow through to last weeks gains on Wednesday and Thursday is not positive.  The bearish belt hold candlestick pattern on the daily Dow chart is a concern.  Plenty of economic data this week, with retail sales numbers and inflation stats.  So expect some volatility.  Oil continues its drop and trying the USO calls was a bad move on my part.  Mistakes cost money in this game.  My ideas haven't worked out so far in 2015.  Perhaps I will just stick to one trade at a time for a while.  I am also seriously considering trading the SPY options because the liquidity appears to be far greater than for the OEX.  But I won't actually know if that's the case until I put some orders in.  The gold shares have been the place to be so far for the beginning of the year.  We'll see how that continues to play out going forward.  We'll keep an eye on the overseas action tonight and go from there.  

Back to the downside to close out the week as the Dow fell 170 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were about 2 to 1 negative.  The employment report took a back seat to the terror problems in France.  Headline events are difficult to trade since they are very unpredictable.  With today decline the market can go either way from here and doesn't give us a good sense of direction.  It appears I should have taken the loss for the OEX January calls yesterday but hindsight always gives the best results.  It means nothing now.  We are working off the recent oversold technical condition of the stock indices.  The indicators are now mid-range.  We do have expiration week coming up.  We'll see if it has the usual positive bias.  GE fell 1/3 on average volume.  This chart has a distinctive bearish look to it after todays price action.  That could be a precursor for the overall market.  GE did not really participate in the two day rally this week.  That could be a problem.  I think we'll know more after the earnings in a week.  My GE March calls are still losers.  Gold was up over $7 on the futures and a bit more in the aftermarket.  The US dollar was lower today.  The XAU gained 2 7/8, while GDX was up almost a point.  USO dropped 1/4.  The USO February call trade is most certainly going to be a loser at this rate.  Do not try and pick bottoms.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The employment numbers came in at about what was expected.  The market is being held hostage by fear at the moment due to the troubles overseas.  Perhaps that will subside over the weekend.  One week to go in the January option cycle.  It looks like my trading year is going to start off like last year ended.  With extended losses that were not cut short.  Even with stop loss orders.  Perhaps I am trading too many things at the same time.  Regardless, it's where we go from here that matters.  I can't say that I have a good idea about the next move in the stock indexes.  The daily candlestick charts on some of the indices show a bearish belt hold pattern.  That could be reversed if we get a strong up session on Monday.  However the lack of follow through after being up over 300 points isn't positive.  The gold shares have acted much better to start the new year.  The acts of terror help support the price of gold in a flight to safety.  The fact that the gold shares have led gold itself here is a positive.  However we are overbought at this point and getting calls here is not advised.  But who knows?  Perhaps gold will break out but I think that it has to get through $1240 to really find some interest.  I'll be deciding what to do with my open positions over the weekend.  I think most likely the losses should be taken so I can move on to something else.  It isn't a confidence booster, that's for sure.  Plenty of charts to check and I'll keep an eye on the headlines as well.  it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The snap back rally could be more than that as the Dow soared 323 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive again.  This should turn the summation index back to the upside.  No need for the market to wait for tomorrows employment report.  The volatility here is tremendous, with 100 point plus moves becoming the norm.  Perhaps my scenario of a strong start to the new year will pan out.  But as usual the market will go where it wants.  However if we continue like this, new all time highs cannot be far away.  My OEX January calls have a bid on them again.  I guess I'll just hold on at this point and see what happens.  GE finally participated somewhat with a gain of 1/4.  Volume was good but I would have liked to see GE move in sync with the overall market.  It is a laggard here.  My GE March calls are back where I purchased them.  Gold fell a couple bucks as the US dollar continues to grind higher.  The XAU was off 1 1/4, while GDX lost 1/3.  Volume was light though.  USO was up 1/8 or so.  My USO February calls are still losers.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  This is one of the craziest starts to the new year that I can remember.  First the world was coming to an end and now we've risen over 500 points in two days.  Who knows what tomorrow will bring?  We'll get the employment numbers and that will be the excuse to move things one way or the other.  Technically we're moving off of a short and medium term oversold condition.  How long it lasts is another story.  If we see all time new highs in short order, that would be a big positive in my mind.  So we'll see.  The USO trade looks like a loser but now there is a chance that the OEX January call trade won't be a total loss.  Earnings for GE next Friday will probably determine the outcome of that trade.  I can't say I have any idea what will happen tomorrow.  But if we finish the week on a positive note, that will bode well for things going forward.  After the very weak start to the week, a comeback would be very bullish.  We'll see how the foreign markets react overnight and keep an eye out for the jobs numbers tomorrow.

The bounce appeared on cue as the Dow rose 212 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still heading lower.  The question is the decline over or will we be heading lower?  My view is that the decline has ended.  That doesn't mean that we can't back and fill for a while.  But we are at technical levels that rallies have started from in the recent past.  A turn up in the summation index will support this view.  But who knows?  The market may surprise us here.  I did not think we would start the year off this negative.  My OEX January calls at least now have a bid, so perhaps they won't expire worthless.  GE was flat on the session with good volume.  My GE March calls are slightly in the red.  Gold was off around $8 in the futures market.  The US dollar continued its rise higher.  It has been quite a run here with no signs of letting up.  The XAU fell 1 1/4, while GDX lost 1/3.  Volume was lighter on the decline and that's a positive.  USO was up 1/3 as oil tries to stabilize again.  Hasn't happened yet.  I would guess that when it does we will see quite a bounce with short covering.  My USO February calls are losers.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We got a bounce in the stock indices where we needed to see one.  The up trend line from October remains intact.  If we do roll over here and take out that line, then I will have to change my bullish stance.  Anything could happen as always in this game.  My OEX calls are running out of time but I will at least wait for Fridays employment report.  This trade will be a loser, it is just a matter of how much.  GE isn't acting as I would like but the earnings are due next week and that should get things moving one way or the other.  USO didn't drop today but there is always tomorrow.  We'll see what happens overnight and go from there.

More downside for the stock market as the Dow fell 130 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  We opened higher, tried to come back and dropped off again at the end.  The summation index is heading lower.  Still short term oversold and right at an important up trend line in the S&P 500.  I do think that we will hold here.  Perhaps it will be the Fed minutes or maybe oil will stop going down but we are overdue for some upside.  If we do not hold up here, then I would begin to worry that things will be a lot worse for the market.  My technical indicators are at levels that previously led to rallies for the stock indices.  It won't help my OEX January calls though as they are already worthless.  If you can't get filled when your stop loss order is touched, then what is the point?  GE was off another 1/2 and volume was very heavy.  Climatic in my opinion.  My GE March calls were a partial fill on the stop loss order and I sold the rest at the market to exit that trade.  Lousy execution there and it made the loss 60%.  I am certainly not happy with the way my recent trades have been treated by the exchanges.  That said, I moved down a strike price and placed another order for the GE March calls.  It was filled.  I'm still a believer in this trade.  Gold continued to find flight to safety buyers as the futures rose $15.  The US dollar was higher again as well.  The XAU was up 4 points and GDX gained a point.  The gold shares are breaking out and that is the place to be.  ABX up 1/3, GG added 1 1/2 and NEM gained 3/4.  Volume was good.  USO lost 3/4 and the market moved right through my stop loss price again without being filled.  I've canceled that order and will have to monitor this trade myself.  I probably should just get out and take the loss.  The beginning of this year so far is filled with mistakes and wrong trading moves.  Trading USO instead of the gold shares is the biggest so far.  Mentally I'm at a loss as to why my stop loss orders cannot be properly filled.  Perhaps that is the by far the most serious thing happening at the moment.  When trading, cutting your losses is imperative.  Yet when you have orders placed to do that and they never get filled, what can you do?  Perhaps a move to a different online broker is in order.  But the market certainly doesn't care.  We are in a strange current situation, with a crash in oil and no bottom in sight yet there.  The stock market does not do well with uncertainty.  Technically we are due for a bounce.  I do believe it should come tomorrow.  My work says some type of rally is about to take place.  At least we are at technical levels where past rallies have begun.  So we will see what happens.  I am trying the GE March calls again.  If today isn't the bottom for GE, then this trade will fail as well.  So we'll know pretty soon.  USO continues to gap down and the volume is now getting very heavy again.  Perhaps we are at the final washout here or perhaps not.  This could go down as my stupidest trade of the year.  We'll see where the overseas markets end up tonight and go from there.   

We started out the week with a thud and a loud one at that.  The Dow fell 331 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were over 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index is now moving lower.  Let me be the first to admit that I do not know what is going on here.  The market knows all.  We are short term oversold but to keep declining with that condition is dangerous.  However the technical condition with regards to the summation index is not anywhere near the crash zone as it was in October.  That doesn't mean we can't fall apart but the odds are against it.  We will find the reasons for the markets weakness as we move along.  Of course my OEX January calls are near worthless after the stop loss order failed to fill.  That does not sit well with me.  But what can you do?  I'll be moving to the SPY options and see how they work out.  GE dropped 1/2 and the volume was good.  Here too, my stop loss order price was hit and not filled.  I have no answer for that.  I may simply just sell out tomorrow.  If there isn't option liquidity in these issues, then I don't know what to say.  Gold was up $17 on the futures and the US dollar was bit higher as well.  Flight to safety would be my guess.  The XAU rose 1 1/3 and GDX was up 1/2.  The beginning of the year gold share trade looks like a winner.  USO was off 1 1/8 and my February calls here are just about at the stop loss price.  Of course that doesn't mean that it will be filled.  Mentally I'm feeling OK despite the rough start to the trading year.  Something is going on in the markets that I am at a loss for an explanation.  We are short term oversold and now even more so.  We are also just about at an up trend line from the October lows on the major stock indices.  If that doesn't hold we could be in for a rough period.  Hasn't happened yet.  We did not get any type of downside blow off today in the stock indexes, so there is probably more weakness to come.  Gold found some buyers today and the gold shares as well.  I think that it is too late for a gold share trade here but if we see gold get through the $1240 level it may be worth a look.  Oil continues its free fall and it appears the USO trade that I did was simply a mistake.  A case of trying to find the bottom before the bottom was in.  You pay for your mistakes in this game.  Oil will eventually bounce and probably pretty good.  However from what level has yet to be determined.  We'll see if the worldwide markets follow the US lower overnight and brace for tomorrow. 

An interesting start to the new year as the Dow gained about 10 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is now moving sideways.  Not the start that I expected as we opened up pretty good, with around a 75 point gain but gave it all back and then some.  Most of the session was spent in negative territory.  I'm still confident that we will break out to the upside form here.  Getting more short term oversold as we go on in time.  My stop loss order wasn't triggered even though we traded at the price again.  I do not know what is going on there.  The option spread was very wide as well.  I ended up canceling the stop loss order and will figure out what to do over the weekend.  This isn't the first time this has happened to me with the OEX.  I am pretty sure that I will be moving over to trade the SPY.  There seems to be more liquidity over there and the spreads are tight.  The only thing about the SPY that I'm not used to is the speed of the contract.  GE fell around 1/4 and the volume was about average.  The short term technical have rolled over here.  My GE March calls are in the red and getting close to the stop loss point.  Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures but the US dollar soared to start the new year.  The XAU was up 1 3/4 though which did not fit in with the dollars price movement.  It looks like the beginning of the year gold share call trade would have worked.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on light volume.  GDX rose over 1/2.  USO fell 1/2 and the volume was pretty good.  My USO February calls are at where I purchased them despite todays loss.  Not exactly sure what to make of that.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  All the traders should return on Monday and we'll see where we go from there.  I'm not sure if the rise in the dollar and lack of gold selling means that there is something brewing somewhere to surprise the markets.  It could just be a one day event.  I'd like to stay with the OEX call trade for now because some of my technical indicators are getting bullish.  But the market can and will do anything.  I also don't like the fact that GE isn't doing well here.  GE acts as a proxy for the market sometimes and if that is the case, then things are weaker than I think.  We'll have to see how things pan out next week.  Plenty of economic data due including the employment report on Friday.  There will be plenty to ponder over the weekend as I have three positions and things are not going as planned.  I'll check the charts and try to come up with a game plan.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

An interesting end to the year as the Dow fell 160 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were about 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is still trending higher.  I'm not sure what to make of todays action but I am still bullish on the beginning of 2015.  My open order for the OEX January calls wasn't filled even though the premium price was touched.  Once again the trading in the OEX electronic market does not seem legitimate.  I adjusted my order up to get filled but it was not at the price I desired.  I will once again look into the SPY contract to trade the overall stock market.  There appears to be much more liquidity and fairness over there.  That particular contract trades very rapidly and that is something that I am not used to.  Getting short term oversold now for the major stock indices.  GE fell almost 1/3 and the volume picked up from yesterday but is still light.  My March calls here are in the red.  Gold fell back from what it gained yesterday as the US dollar was higher.  The gold shares didn't move much however.  The XAU was off 1/4 and GDX was only slightly lower.  ABX, GG and NEM had fractional losses on light volume.  Too late in my opinion to get the January gold share calls here.  USO finished the day up a tad after being lower early.  My open order for the USO February calls was filled.  It is showing a small profit.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I expect Friday to be a positive one for the stock indexes and I would be surprised if it wasn't.  I'm confident in the OEX trade made today but the market as always will go where it wants.  I actually have three trades on at the moment and that is not my usual scenario.  It will be important to get off to a good start in 2015.  I feel that I am positioned to do that.  But who knows?  It's an interesting game.  Tomorrow is a holiday around the world and some markets will be closed on Friday as well.  We should have everybody back at their trading desks on Monday.  I'll be glad to see 2014 come to an end because it was another losing year for me in the options market.  Hopefully the risk control stop loss orders will bode well for a better cap on the losing trades in 2015.  My themes for the beginning of the new year are higher stock prices overall and a bounce in the oil market.  Happy New Year everyone!

Relieving some of the overbought condition today as the Dow fell 55 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index continues higher.  We're still not back to normal market conditions as the light volume attests.  I did place an open order for the OEX January calls.  We'll need to see some more decline for it to get filled.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume remains light.  My GE March calls are now back in the red.  Plenty of time for this trade to work.  Gold found some buyers today as the futures rose $18.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU was higher by 2 3/8.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains.  The volume was better than it has been.  GDX was up 2/3.  It's too late for the January call trade here I think.  USO was flat on the day.  I left in my open order for the February calls here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We'll finish up the year tomorrow and I don't expect a lot of movement.  Thursday is a holiday.  I expect Friday to be positive.  Things should be getting back to normal on Monday.  It is a time to be patient and the orders that I have placed hopefully reflect that.  What I mean is that in order for the tickets to be filled we will have to see price action that lowers the premiums.  I may simply cancel the orders before the close tomorrow as well.  I would really like to get the new year going in the right direction.  The past couple of years haven't been my best.  It's all about discipline and timing.  Trading should be thin overnight as well as tomorrow.  We'll see how it goes. 

The market remains in holiday mode as the Dow fell 15 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues higher.  It does not look like there will be an opportunity to purchase the January OEX calls at this rate.  I still expect a good beginning to the new year for the major stock indices.  GE was off a few cents and the volume remains light.  The GE March calls that I own are still slightly in the black.  Gold was off $13 on the futures as the US dollar was higher yet again.  The trend in the dollar remains intact.  The XAU was off 1 3/4.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume.  GDX was lower by 3/8.  I'm still considering a GDX trade for the beginning of the year.  USO dropped another 1/2 and I did place an open order here for the February calls.  I'm not sure that this is the proper idea but I am willing to give it a shot at the right price.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Just waiting for 2015 at this point.  All of the major trading has been completed for the year.  If we do see some weakness in the next couple of sessions perhaps we'll get a chance for the OEX January calls.  But it sure doesn't look like it today.  Gold reversed the gains from the end of last week.  Gold has basically been going nowhere for the past few months.  As long as the dollar remains in rally mode, I doubt we'll see gold go much higher.  But as always the markets go where they want.  Things can change in a hurry but I don't expect anything like that for the next couple of days at least.  We'll keep an eye on developments overnight and go from there. 

And the beat goes on.  The Dow gained 23 points on very light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues higher.  Light volume, holiday mode thin trading.  You really can't make too much out of it.  GE fell a nickel again and the volume remains extremely light.  Gold found some buyers today as the futures rose over $20.  The US dollar was a bit higher as well.  The XAU added 1 7/8.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on light volume.  Perhaps the expected beginning of the year buying in the gold shares is already taking place.  USO fell 1/4 and the volume was light.  I am considering the USO February calls for a bounce in the beginning of next year.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The major players are out of the game at the moment.  Some of them will return next week.  I don't think that things will really get going until January 5th.  I'm looking at getting some OEX January calls if there is some type of pullback.  Perhaps the GDX January calls but it may be too late there.  I'll be checking the charts out over the weekend.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

The market closed early today as we are in holiday mode.  The Dow rose 6 points although we were much higher for most of the session.  The advance/declines were about even.  Volume was extremely low.  The summation index continues to the upside.  Thinly traded and not much to make of things here.  GE was off a nickel and the volume was very light.  Gold lost a few bucks on the futures and the US dollar was a bit lower as well.  The XAU gained 1 3/4 though.  Perhaps the gold shares are already seeing some buyers at depressed levels.  But the volume was extremely light.  ABX, GG and NEM had fractional gains.  GDX was up almost 1/2.  I'm still considering the calls here for the beginning of the new year.  USO fell 1/2 and is still moving sideways for now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  You can't make much of the market action at this time of the year.  The major players are home for the holidays.  I have some trading ideas but acting on them won't occur until next week.  It's time to be patient and relax for a change.  Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all.

New highs every day as we closed above 18000 for the first time today.  The Dow gained 64 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 higher.  The summation index continues higher.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow so perhaps a pause is due.  Short term overbought as well for the major stock indices.  However I'm still a believer in higher prices and declines are to be bought.  GE was up over 1/8 and the volume was light.  My GE March calls are still in the black.  Gold was pretty much flat on the futures but dropped $5 in the aftermarket.  The US dollar was up today and closed above 90.  The XAU was off 1/2.  ABX, GG and NEM all had slight fractional losses on light volume.  I'm still considering a beginning of the year call trade in the gold shares but I flip flop on this idea with each passing day.  USO was up today as oil had a positive session.  Mentally I'm feeling fine.  Light volume will be the environment for the rest of the week for stocks.  The markets are in holiday mode.  All the major players won't return until the new year.  The trend for the stock indexes remains up and I don't see any changes in the near term.  I'd still like to get some OEX January calls if we do get some selling.  So it is a wait and see type of atmosphere for the rest of 2014.  I expect it to be slow overnight but we'll still keep an eye on things.

More of the same as the Dow gained 154 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues higher.  At this rate, there won't be any chance to buy some OEX January calls.  The reverse head and shoulders patterns will play out and the rally will simply extend itself.  New all time highs are in the near future.  There are no reasons for selling.  Just getting to short term overbought on the major stock indices.  GE was up a few cents and the volume was lighter than lately.  My GE March calls are slightly in the black.  I'm still guessing this trade will work out but the entry could have been a lot better.  Gold took a hit today as the futures fell around $15 and more in the aftermarket.  The US dollar was higher on the day.  The XAU dropped 4 points.  ABX off 1/2, while GG and NEM shed 7/8.  Volume was good to the downside.  You would think that these issues would be sold out by now but the dumping continues.  Not so sure about trying the GDX January calls.  It's probably best to hold off until the technical indicators are completely oversold.  Not there yet.  USO was off a point.  I'm still considering the February calls here but USO has been oversold and staying there.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It's a holiday week with some shortened sessions coming up.  I think the prudent path will be to let this week go by.  My trading has been pitiful for most of the year anyway.  Looking for a fresh start to the new year is the way to go for me at this juncture.  My trading account lost almost 30% this year.  If not for being short during the drop in October, it would have been worse.  But you've got to keep moving on in this game.  Hopefully the stop loss orders will put a dent in the losing trades but the execution so far hasn't been up to snuff.  It's always a battle with the markets and that includes the players behind the scenes as well.  Plus now the fight includes computers.  However the rewards for those good enough to play the game far outweigh the obstacles.  It can be done.  The only question is are you good enough to do it?  We've seen a steady decline in the commodities markets.  Over supply and a decent rise in the dollar are probably part of the reasons.  This won't last forever although it's hard to make that case right now.  There will be opportunities.  The US stock markets continue to climb.  I expect that trend to continue.  Taking advantage of it will be the key.  We'll get most of this weeks economic data out tomorrow and that should get things moving.  After that I expect things to get pretty slow until next week.  We'll watch the foreign markets overnight and take it from there.

More of the same to wrap up the week as the Dow gained 26 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is turning back up.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  Any weakness can and should be bought.  We are heading to new all time highs.  I will be looking to get some OEX January calls before the start of the new year.  If we are lucky there will be some pullback.  If not, then some type of consolidation of the recent gains will be the opportunity.  This was a pretty crazy week.  However the major players will be off for the holidays now.  Next week should be a snoozer compared to what we have just seen.  GE was up 3/8 and the volume remains heavy.  My GE March calls are now slightly in the black.  This trade once again looks like it will work but we all know what can happen in this game.  Gold was flat on the day as the US dollar continues to march higher.  The XAU was off 1/8.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses.  Volume remains good.  I have no plans to trade the gold shares now.  I am going to try and wait for the technical indicators to get oversold.  If that happens before the new year, I'll try the January GDX calls.  USO had a good move higher today by 1 1/4.  Perhaps I have missed this one.  I'm still looking at the February calls though.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Physically doing much better as well after the battle with the cold/flu.  The stock indices have turned back up and we are going higher.  I'll try and be patient next week since it would probably be wise to let next week go by.  But you never know.  The summation index has turned around and I'll take my cues from there.  Gold isn't doing much but perhaps if we get a bid for oil, it will help gold.  That's a guess as usual.  I still think there could be some buying of the gold shares early next year by money managers seeking the bottom fishers.  I could be wrong.  But like I said, I'll have to wait until the technicals are oversold before trying the calls there.  So I have a couple of trading ideas to wrap up the year but they will carry over into 2015.  This trading year was pretty pathetic for me on the returns.  My winning percentage was pretty low.  I'll try and improve the results next year.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend as usual.  for now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

I don't know what to say after todays price action.  The Dow soared 421 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive.  That is about 700 or so Dow points in just two days.  You cannot plan for such events.  Volatility has returned but this is ridiculous.  The past two days of gains would normally have taken at least two weeks and that would be in good bull market.  It does not appear that we will get a chance to purchase some OEX January calls but who knows?  The trend has turned back up and new all time highs are on the way for the major stock indices.  The game plan for me now will be to wait and see if we pull back before the new year begins.  GE was up almost 3/4 on heavy volume.  The GE March calls that I own are getting back to break even.  I still like this trade and in due time I think that it will work out fine.  Gold was up just a touch on the futures after being higher earlier.  The US dollar had a slight gain.  The XAU was higher by 3 points, once again following stocks.  ABX was up 1/3, while GG and NEM gained 7/8.  Volume was good.  GDX gained 3/4 and it looks like the January call trade here is not going to happen for me.  We've already moved up too much.  Unless we see some near term weakness in the gold shares, I'll have to find something else.  USO moved back down today and appears poised to head lower.  We'll see.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Quite a move today in the major stock indices and the reverse head and shoulders patterns have come back into play.  Just take a look at the daily candlestick charts of COMPQ, INDU, NYA, OEX, QQQ, RUT, SPX or TRAN.  These charts imply much higher prices coming on the break out from these patterns.  I believe that it will happen at the beginning of the new year.  Any decline can be bought.  The summation index is still heading lower but should turn back up next week.  The gold shares have shown a little life here but gold itself isn't doing much.  I'm not sure if I am going to continue to pursue a trade here.  Perhaps the USO February calls will be my next attempt.  Or not.  We'll see if the overseas markets follow todays US stock market move tonight.  I'm also thinking that perhaps the major players in the game are getting all of their trading done before taking off next week for the holidays.  We'll keep an eye on things and close out the week tomorrow.

We witnessed a huge bounce today as the Dow soared 288 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 8 to 1 positive.  We were overbought and overdue for some upside but this was quite a bump.  The market also liked what the Fed had to say and that helped extend the rally.  The decline is over in my humble opinion.  I did place an order last night for some OEX January calls but it was not filled.  I am leaving in an open order for this trade because now is the time.  Some of my technical indicators are at the levels they were when we rallied in October.  If we are lucky perhaps the market will drift back and the calls will be filled.  If not we will have to adjust because I'm still a believer that the beginning of next year will be positive.  GE was up over 1/8 on extremely heavy volume.  It appears that we have put in a bottom here as well, looking at the daily candlestick chart.  My GE March calls are still in the red.  Gold was flat on the session but dropped a bit in the aftermarket.  The US dollar had a very strong session.  It was a surprise that gold did not fall further.  The XAU was up 3 1/3, following the overall market.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains under a dollar on good volume.  I was stopped out from my ABX January call trade yesterday for a 45% loss.  I don't think that I will try ABX again here but may attempt the index GDX on the long side.  But I'm not sure that gold will rally here.  Gold itself remains more overbought than oversold at the moment.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Oil has held up the past couple of days and that has provided some relief for the stock markets.  The extreme oversold short term condition of the stock indices was due to be relieved as well.  The question will be if this is a real bounce or not but I believe that it is.  Declines can once again be purchased.  I don't know if the market will give us a chance though.  I'm looking at the OEX January calls.  USO has stabilized for the past two days on very heavy volume.  Something is trying to keep this issue from falling any further.  We'll see if it works.  Oil is pretty blown out to the downside.  The gold shares outperformed gold today and that is bullish.  But one day doesn't make a trend.  The fundamentals for gold are still negative.  However I cannot rule out a short term rally as the year turns for the gold shares.  I'm thinking that there could be some bottom fishing by money managers to start 2015.  I could be wrong.  We'll watch to see if the foreign markets follow the US lead overnight.  Volatility has returned.

Once again the market failed to hold on to a decent intra-day gain.  The Dow was up well over 200 points during the session but finished the day with a loss of 112 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index continues to head lower.  We finished near the lows of the day and that isn't bullish.  We are seeing a worldwide liquidation of assets.  I do not know the reason why.  My guess is heavy margin calls around the world due to leveraged assets related to oil and other commodities.  But that's just a guess.  My theory of how things would play out here was wrong.  The reverse head and shoulders patterns in the major stock indices are not taking place.  GE was off a dime and the volume was heavy again.  I still have the GE March calls but they are losing value and might be stopped out soon.  That will be the case if the overall market decline continues.  Gold was off over $10 on the futures but this was baked in yesterday in the aftermarket.  The US dollar got crushed today.  Gold not being able to rally on a very weak day for the US dollar is not at all bullish.  Once again I don't know why.  The XAU fell almost a point.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on heavy volume.  My ABX January calls got to the stop price but I do not know if it was filled.  The market makers danced around my stop limit order.  I'll check back again later tonight but this is the second time this year where the mechanics of a trade haven't worked properly.  Everybody loves electronic trading though.  Until it doesn't work right.  Mentally I'm feeling OK and getting some strength back as well.  Not all the way back to normal yet.  We get the Fed announcement tomorrow.  I have no idea what the reaction to that might be.  It's probably best to be careful here and not make any huge decisions.  The market forces are pretty powerful at times and this seems to be one of those times.  I still believe that next year will be a good one for the stock market.  But the question now seems to be from what level will the year begin?  USO had an up session and the volume was massive.  Trying to hold things up here perhaps?  I guess I'm going to stay on the sidelines here, as I have never traded this issue before and the markets are in crazy mode.  Gold should have had a rally today on the weaker dollar and didn't.  I'm not sure what's next here either.  The gold shares are short term oversold.  I'll see if I was sold out of the ABX January call position and decide whether I'd like to try that again.  We'll see if the foreign markets can hold up overnight and take it from there.

The Dow fell another 100 points today on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues lower.  Let me be the first to admit that I do not have a clue as to what is going on here.  I've been under the weather for a week but that is no excuse.  We are getting a worldwide liquidation of commodities for whatever reason.  Stocks are being sold to meet margin calls is my guess.  The major stock indices are oversold and staying that way.  If we don't hold up here my reverse head and shoulders hypothesis will be null and void.  GE dropped 1/3 and the volume was extremely heavy.  I might get stopped out of the GE March calls that I own as they are now in the red.  Again, not sure what is happening but everything is going down.  Gold fell $15 on the futures and that much again in the aftermarket.  The US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU lost 4 1/2.  The gold shares had been weak and they are getting weaker.  ABX, GG and NEM all fell a point or more on good volume.  My ABX January calls are now losers and risk being stopped out as well.  This was a trade that once showed a very good profit.  Whatever is happening it looks like even more selling is on the way.  Mentally I'm feeling OK but still not 100%.  I guess it wasn't the best time to catch a cold/flu.  With what is going on at the moment, anything goes.  Today was a one day reversal to the downside as we opened higher and closed lower.  I did not expect the decline to go this far or last this long and I was wrong.  However if things turn around here quickly, then there is still a chance that my idea about the overall market was correct.  USO is still blown out to the downside and I do have the February calls on my radar.  Trying to figure out the bottom is a guessing game.  I still may try this trade but probably the best course of action would be to step aside.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight price action and see what the foreign markets do.  Tomorrow should be interesting as well.

It was another downer for the Dow today as it got clobbered and fell 315 points on once again heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues lower.  We closed on the lows of the day and that isn't bullish.  The S&P 500 is just about at 2000, where I believe support will kick in.  But perhaps I'm just off the mark here.  Maybe there is some disaster in the markets waiting to happen.  Technically, I just don't see it.  The small stocks are holding up relatively better.  The reverse head and shoulders patterns that I anticipate are still in place.  Granted, if we see another week as negative as this one next week, I'll have to change my tune.  But for now this decline to me is a breather on the way to higher prices and a good start to the new year.  We'll see.  GE was off 1/2 and the volume was heavy.  This drop occurred despite GE raising its dividend.  In a normal market with this kind of positive development, a nice price spike would occur.  But selling was the theme of the day.  The March GE calls that I own are now in the red.  If I do get stopped out of this trade I will probably try it again at a different strike price.  Hasn't happened yet.  Gold was off a few bucks on the futures and the US dollar was lower as well.  Disappointing to not see gold get a bid with the recent market turmoil.  It certainly isn't a positive.  The XAU slid another 1 1/4.  ABX off 1/3, with GG and NEM losing 1/2.  Volume was a little better today.  My ABX January calls are barely in the black.  This is a trade that should have been closed out weeks ago.  Five weeks to go in the January option cycle and two of those week will be holiday mode.  Mentally I'm feeling OK but still a bit under the weather physically.  Where do we go from here will be the question thought about over the weekend.  Support for the Dow is close at hand around 17200.  Previous tops and the 50 day moving average are around this level.  Will the support hold is now the question.  The summation index is still heading lower.  The McClellan oscillator is getting pretty oversold.  But that doesn't mean that it can't get more oversold.  I'm still looking for the stock indexes to stabilize next week though.  I could be wrong.  Gold is short term overbought right now, with the gold shares moving into oversold territory.  Not really a clear picture of what to expect there.  The USO trade that I am thinking about maybe just isn't a good idea.  This issue is in a free fall on heavy volume.  I suppose I have been fortunate enough to not have tried anything yet.  I suppose if it makes it all the way to $20, I'll consider it.  The snap back here will probably be pretty dramatic when it comes.  There will be a lot to consider over the weekend and hopefully my overall health will return back to normal.  I'll be the first to admit that my thinking has been rather slow this past week.  That won't cut it in this game or any other.  As always the market doesn't care and goes where it wants.  Plenty of research to be done over the weekend.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

Volatility is back as the Dow gained 63 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still trending lower.  The Dow did have a 200 point gain at some time early in the session.  Can't say I know exactly what is taking place here.  But I'm sticking with the thesis that this sets things up for a rally into the new year.  I'm also a believer of the reverse head and shoulders patterns being formed on some of the major stock indices daily charts.  GE was up 1/8 and the volume was good.  The GE March calls that I own are back to break even.  Plenty of time for this trade to work itself out.  Gold was off $3 on the futures as the US dollar bounced back.  The XAU dropped another point.  ABX and GG had fractional losses, while NEM had a fractional gain.  Volume was light.  Sideways is the most that we can hope for the gold shares here.  The short term technical indicators are neither overbought or oversold.  Mentally I'm feeling tired.  Cannot shake this cold/flu.  Declines can still be purchased in my opinion.  I'm still looking for a good start to the new year for stocks.  Six days to go in the December option cycle.  I have no index option trades in mind for the S&P at the moment.  USO continues to drop.  I'm looking but not buying just yet.  Oversold and staying there for this issue and that is dangerous.  The CRB continues to drop as well.  Gold continues to hang in there for now.  But I don't see any huge rallies coming.  We'll watch the overnight action and finish out the week tomorrow.

Well, we got a decline today as the Dow fell 268 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative.  Markets around the world a beginning to drop.  The summation index is heading lower.  I still don't think this is the beginning of any sustained decline.  It would help if we can hold things up right around here.  Let me be the first to say that the look on the daily candlestick charts of some of the major averages to me is a reverse head and shoulder pattern.  That implies higher prices going out in time.  I do not think that we are going to retest the lows from October or anything even close to that.  But who knows?  The markets go where they want.  GE fell another 1/3 and the volume was heavy here as well.  The GE March calls that I purchased yesterday are slightly under water.  I still like this trade and think that in time it will prove to be a good move.  Gold fell a couple bucks on the futures despite a drop in the US dollar.  That isn't s good sign for the gold bulls.  The XAU fell 2 1/3 after trying to show some life early.  ABX shed 1/8, while GG and NEM fell over 1/2.  Volume was lighter here.  The gold shares basically ended up following the overall market.  Mentally and physically I'm tired, still not close to feeling 100%.  It affects the trading to be sure.  I should be OK by next week.  The markets don't care.  USO continues to plunge and the volume today was extremely heavy.  Maybe it's about time to step up to the plate here but I will have to wait until next week at least.  Oversold and staying there on a daily and weekly basis for this issue.  The snap back should be pretty violent if you can pick the bottom.  The major stock indexes are moving to short term oversold territory.  Not so much so on a weekly basis.  The summation index heading lower should be where we take our cues from.  Perhaps the S&P 500 can see some support at the 50 day moving average at around 2000.  That is my best guess at the moment.  Both gold and silver are now overbought.  Sideways is the most we can expect near term.  There was no flight to safety here despite a lower dollar and a decent decline in the stock market.  The gold shares continue to disappoint.  We'll have to watch the overseas markets tonight and see if they continue lower.  Once again, I don't think that this is anything to worry about.  Or perhaps since that's what I think you should.  But you could make those assumptions on any day about any thing.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Another crazy session as the Dow was off over 200 points early but came back to finish the day lower by 51.  Volume was heavy again and the advance/declines were positive.  The small stocks fared much better than the Dow and that is a positive.  Declines continue to be bought.  That is the theme for now and I expect it to continue.  The summation index is moving lower but I don't think it will turn into some type of market rout.  We are setting up for the rally that will appear in the new year.  That is my guess at the moment.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume was good.  My open order for the GE March calls was filled early when GE tanked with the overall market.  I have the stop loss order in place.  This trade has plenty of time to work and I am very positive that this will turn into a decent profit.  I could be wrong.  Gold soared on fear when the stock indices dropped on the open.  The precious metal futures rose $35 as the US dollar was lower again.  Gold has now risen above its 50 day moving average.  Ditto for silver, which had a good session as well.  The gold shares didn't move as much as I would have liked though.  The XAU gained 3 1/8.  ABX up 1/2, while GG and NEM added around 7/8.  Volume was decent.  My ABX January calls are back in the black.  Mentally I'm feeling OK but I'm still feeling ill from the cold/flu.  Not being 100% makes for tough trading but thankfully there isn't a lot of thought to be done with what I have going on right now.  Todays market comeback only solidifies the idea that dips are to be purchased.  There will be plenty of time to develop new trades when I'm feeling better.  I'm still thinking about the USO February calls.  Today was a great day for gold and silver but the precious metal shares lagged.  That is not a positive.  I'll be keeping an eye on it.  We'll watch the overnight action and see what tomorrow brings.

An interesting start to the week as the Dow fell 105 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative.  We were off 150 at on point during the session.  Todays action should turn the summation index down.  I would not worry about any kind of big decline here.  My opinion is that we are simply setting things up for the next rally to begin at the start of the new year.  GE dropped 1/3 on good volume.  My open order for the March calls here is close to being filled.  Another down day tomorrow and it will get hit most likely.  Gold turned around to the upside during the trading day and were $5 on the futures, more in the aftermarket.  The US dollar was lower today.  The XAU was flat on the day after being lower early.  The same price action occurred with ABX, GG and NEM.  Volume was good for the gold shares.  My ABX January calls got all the way back to what I paid for them before finishing slightly in the black.  Mentally I'm feeling tired and physically I have a cold/flu.  Trading is tough enough to begin with and being sick isn't going to help.  Trading decisions now will be kept to a minimum.  I'm still considering the USO February calls but that issue continues to simply drop.  The overall stock indices are taking a breather here.  Weakness will be bought in my opinion.  If you have any call trades for the beginning of next year, now is the time to be looking to buy.  I could be wrong and often am.  However I think next year will be positive for stocks, with a decent lift off in January.  Gold has been holding up near the $1200 range despite a lot of not so good news for it lately.  Perhaps it can get some kind of upside traction soon.  But the technicals are more overbought here short term than oversold.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

More new highs as the Dow gained 58 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is trending sideways.  The employment report was robust and the fear of higher interest rates is no longer a market concern.  We are going higher and this rally will probably last longer than most expect.  Some indexes, such as the NYA and RUT have yet to break into new highs.  When they do, things will really get going to the upside.  Perhaps at the start of the new year.  GE was off a few cents on light volume.  I'm still leaving the open order in for the March calls here.  It will take some more weakness to get filled.  Gold fell on the employment numbers and that is not what I needed for the ABX call trade.  The precious metal futures were off $17.  The US dollar continued to rally with another strong session.  The fundamentals for gold are negative.  I suppose I should have cashed in the profit I had a couple of weeks ago as it appears that there will be no sustained rallies for gold.  The XAU lost 1 1/3.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume.  The ABX January call trade is still slightly in the black.  Oversold now on a short term basis for ABX.  USO was lower today as well.  The strong US dollar does not help this issue.  I am still considering the February calls here but I certainly don't know where the bottom is for oil.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We've got about two real weeks of trading left into the December option expiration before things really slow down for the holidays.  I do not expect any real declines and any weakness will be bought.  I may begin to look at the January OEX or SPY calls because I expect a nice pop at the beginning of next year.  I could be wrong.  But like I said, once all of the stock indices are into new high ground we should take off.  There is no overhead resistance.  Markets tend to stay overbought for a long time in good rallies.  Witness the recent action in the US dollar.  Now all things don't last forever but you've got to take advantage of the situations when they occur.  Gold has not been able to build on that huge reversal move last week to the upside.  That is not a positive going forward.  Neither is that fact that the gold share indexes were rebuffed at their 50 day moving averages.  Now time also becomes a factor for this ABX January call trade that I have because there are only six weeks left.  Plenty to think about over the weekend.  I'll be checking the charts as usual and trying to come up with a game plan for the rest of this year.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.    

Bouncing around today and negative for the most part as the Dow fell 12 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were about 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is trending sideways.  Waiting on the jobs numbers.  We could go either way here but I'm looking for a bullish outcome.  Declines are still being purchased and I expect that to continue.  GE fell 1/3 on average volume.  I still have an open order in for the March calls here.  Gold was basically flat on the futures despite a drop in the US dollar.  That isn't bullish.  The XAU dropped about 1 2/3.  ABX and NEM fell 1/3, while GG shed 2/3.  Volume was light.  Not sure what to make of todays price action but as long as the gold shares continue to move sideways I'll remain with a bullish position.  My ABX January calls remain in the black but have lost some profit.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Not sure what we'll see from the employment report tomorrow but I don't expect some big decline.  Money continues to flow into US stocks and that trend has been pretty consistent.  Given the positive seasonal factor in place now, higher prices are the expected outcome.  The trend is up and you should night fight it.  Gold is stuck at the 50 day moving average as are the gold shares.  Perhaps tomorrows data will get things moving.  Or not.  The short term technical indicators are overbought for gold and mid-range for the gold shares.  USO remains oversold but that doesn't mean that it can't go lower.  Just because something looks cheap doesn't mean that it can't get cheaper.  I'm keeping an eye on it and still may make a trade here.  We'll watch the overnight developments and await the employment report tomorrow morning. 

Another day, another new all time high.  The Dow closed up 33 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  I thought that perhaps we would simply move sideways here but up we go.  The summation index is trending sideways though.  The Fed minutes were a non event.  Waiting on Fridays employment report.  GE was up 1/3 on OK volume.  My open order was not hit but I am leaving it out there.  The GE March calls are the trade here for me.  Gold was up almost ten bucks on the futures.  The US dollar was higher today as well.  The XAU rose almost 2 1/2.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains to the upside on lighter volume.  My ABX January calls are still in the black.  Stalling at the 50 days moving average for both gold and the gold share indices.  A move above would be positive.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Tomorrow should be a waiting game on the employment numbers.  The short term technicals are mixed here so we could go either way.  I'd only be guessing at which way we will go.  It's the sidelines for now with regards to the OEX options.  Still plenty of time left in the December option cycle.  I think that gold and silver are still trying to digest the violent intra-day move on Monday.  Perhaps the jobs data will get things going here again.  I'm still looking at USO and considering a long trade there.  We'll watch what transpires in the overnight action and go from there.

Back to the upside as volatility has returned.  The Dow gained 102 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving sideways.  Declines are being purchased.  Perhaps the major stock indices will simply move sideways here before heading one way or the other.  The odds favor eventually higher prices in my opinion.  The short term technical indicators are trying to roll back to the upside.  No OEX trades right now.  GE was flat on the session and the volume was light.  My open order remains for the March calls here.  Gold fell back almost $20 today on the futures as the US dollar had a sharp rebound.  The XAU lost 2 1/2.  ABX and NEM fell 1/2, while GG shed 7/8.  Volume was average.  My ABX January calls are still showing a profit but not as much.  Volatility has returned in the gold market as well.  USO was lower today and I am still debating on whether to attempt a trade here or not.  If the options for February get cheap enough, I'll probably give it a try.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Perhaps we are in a pause for the major stock indices here but we will have to see how it plays out.  Working off the extended overbought condition is how I'd term the recent price action.  But with the Fed minutes tomorrow and the employment report on Friday, we do have catalysts for price action.  Once again , I do not expect any major decline.  Gold has been acting strange lately but with the long bullish candlestick on the daily chart, I've got to think that there will be a positive short term outcome here.  I could be wrong.  The technicals on the gold share indexes are mid-range.  USO is another idea but I am not used to trading it.  Technically it is overblown to the downside.  I'll give it some more time most likely before deciding on what to do.  We'll follow the action overseas tonight and see what happens tomorrow.

We begin the month of December on a down note as the Dow fell 51 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative.  This should turn the summation index down.  We have been short term overbought on the stock indices for quite some time so a pause isn't completely out of the question.  The short term technical indicators have now rolled over for the major stock indices.  The overall market was much weaker than the Dow, especially the small stocks.  I don't expect any huge decline here though.  But what do I know?  Not a whole lot sometimes.  GE was off almost 1/2 and the volume was heavy.  Not sure what is going on here either.  However I did place an order for the GE March calls since I have been waiting for a pullback to try this trade.  I'm leaving the order open.  Gold had a wild session as the Swiss voted down the peg to gold for the franc.  Gold initially sold off hard overnight but then completely turned around and rallied just a hard back to the upside.  The futures ended the day higher by over $40 and back above the $1200 level.  The US dollar was weaker on the session.  The XAU was up 4 3/4.  ABX up 1/2, GG rose 1 2/3 and NEM added 1 1/4.  Volume was heavy back to the upside.  Unfortunately for me ABX was the laggard here but my ABX January calls are still in the black.  I really don't know what to make of todays price action but it appears to be bullish.  However I would not be surprised to see some sideways action as the market figures out where it wants to go.  The USO trade that I wrote about last week is still in the picture but USO had a strong day today to halt the free fall in oil.  I still like the USO February calls if we drop back again.  On a weekly basis, USO is so many standard deviations away from its 50 week moving average that it has to begin to snap back towards it between now and February.  After todays price action I feel this will happen sooner rather than later.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  My guess is that any decline that we see here will set us up for a nice rally at the beginning of next year.  January through March calls should work out in my opinion.  I'll be looking at the OEX and SPY to trade long at some point this month.  The ideal scenario will be for the summation index to trend lower with the short term technical indicators reaching oversold status.  That will be the opportune time to buy the calls.  Wishful thinking perhaps on my part.  The markets go where they want.  Gold had a crazy session with incredible volatility.  I don't know what it means for the future but at least for the bullish cause we are back above $1200.  We'll have to see how the rest of the week plays out.  The employment report on Friday should be the main driver.  We also have the Feds beige book out on Wednesday.  So it should be an interesting week.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight action and get ready for Tuesday.