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Monday, January 26, 2015

Some upside today as the market is on its version of storm watch.  A blizzard is forecast for the tri-state area.  The Dow gained 6 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive.  The overall market remains stronger than the Dow.  I still think that the path of least resistance is up.  Sideways perhaps but I could be wrong.  If we do see some weakness, I'm probably going to try the SPY February calls.  We are short term overbought now on the major stock indices.  GE rose 1/8 and the volume was average.  Gold was off $13 on the futures and the US dollar was lower today as well.  The XAU gained 1 1/4 and GDX added 3/8.  Volume was lighter for the gold shares but it is impressive that they continued higher with the sell off in gold.  These issues are very overextended here right now.  I really do not want to chase them at this point.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Just waiting for some weakness here is about all that I can do.  We've got the Fed statement on Wednesday and GDP on Friday as potential market movers.  I'll try and remain patient.  USO was lower again today.  Oil is so blown out to the downside here that I find it hard to believe that it could go any lower.  However the markets move where they want.  Perhaps gold is about to take a breather here.  It certainly is due.  There is plenty of time in the February option cycle to find something to profit from.  Waiting for a decent set up will be the key.  I have an idea for the SPY but we will have to see if the market cooperates.  We'll keep an eye on the overseas market action and get ready for tomorrow.

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