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Tuesday, January 20, 2015

Bouncing around post expiration as the Dow rose 3 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  We opened higher, then spent much of the day in negative territory before heading back up again.  I did want to but some SPY February calls but held off.  There will be some kind of announcement coming from the European central bank on Thursday.  Markets will move off of that.  Which way is the question.  We are oversold on the major stock index technicals.  I will probably stay on the sidelines.  GE was up 1/4 and the volume was good.  This could bode well for the overall market if it continues.  My GE March calls are still well in the red.  Earnings on Friday.  Gold continues to find buyers as the futures rose $15.  The US dollar was higher as well.  These two are marching up in tandem and that is not the usual course.  Uncertainty and the flight to safety seem to be working overtime here.  USO dropped 7/8 as there is no stability in oil just yet.  The XAU was up 2 1/2 and GDX gained 3/4.  Volume remains pretty good here although the overbought condition persists.  I do not advise chasing this move as it has been missed by me.  Perhaps I can think about the calls if we see some pullback to the breakout point.  The reverse head and shoulders measurement for gold remains at $1340.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I suppose we are in a wait and see mode for now with regards to the stock indices.  I do think that it is possible that we are in a consolidation from the rise that began in October.  If that is the case then we will see the new highs that I've been looking for when the year started.  But it hasn't happened yet.  Any break of the recent lows for stocks will negate that theory.  Although I wanted to buy some index calls today, I did not.  My confidence is at a low.  Missing out on the gold shares and trying USO instead was a mistake that lingers.  I really need to get back to a better trading state of mind.  The GE March call trade might have a chance if we get a rise in GE off of the earnings.  But that has yet to be proven either.  I'll simply sit tight for now.

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