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Tuesday, January 06, 2015

More downside for the stock market as the Dow fell 130 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  We opened higher, tried to come back and dropped off again at the end.  The summation index is heading lower.  Still short term oversold and right at an important up trend line in the S&P 500.  I do think that we will hold here.  Perhaps it will be the Fed minutes or maybe oil will stop going down but we are overdue for some upside.  If we do not hold up here, then I would begin to worry that things will be a lot worse for the market.  My technical indicators are at levels that previously led to rallies for the stock indices.  It won't help my OEX January calls though as they are already worthless.  If you can't get filled when your stop loss order is touched, then what is the point?  GE was off another 1/2 and volume was very heavy.  Climatic in my opinion.  My GE March calls were a partial fill on the stop loss order and I sold the rest at the market to exit that trade.  Lousy execution there and it made the loss 60%.  I am certainly not happy with the way my recent trades have been treated by the exchanges.  That said, I moved down a strike price and placed another order for the GE March calls.  It was filled.  I'm still a believer in this trade.  Gold continued to find flight to safety buyers as the futures rose $15.  The US dollar was higher again as well.  The XAU was up 4 points and GDX gained a point.  The gold shares are breaking out and that is the place to be.  ABX up 1/3, GG added 1 1/2 and NEM gained 3/4.  Volume was good.  USO lost 3/4 and the market moved right through my stop loss price again without being filled.  I've canceled that order and will have to monitor this trade myself.  I probably should just get out and take the loss.  The beginning of this year so far is filled with mistakes and wrong trading moves.  Trading USO instead of the gold shares is the biggest so far.  Mentally I'm at a loss as to why my stop loss orders cannot be properly filled.  Perhaps that is the by far the most serious thing happening at the moment.  When trading, cutting your losses is imperative.  Yet when you have orders placed to do that and they never get filled, what can you do?  Perhaps a move to a different online broker is in order.  But the market certainly doesn't care.  We are in a strange current situation, with a crash in oil and no bottom in sight yet there.  The stock market does not do well with uncertainty.  Technically we are due for a bounce.  I do believe it should come tomorrow.  My work says some type of rally is about to take place.  At least we are at technical levels where past rallies have begun.  So we will see what happens.  I am trying the GE March calls again.  If today isn't the bottom for GE, then this trade will fail as well.  So we'll know pretty soon.  USO continues to gap down and the volume is now getting very heavy again.  Perhaps we are at the final washout here or perhaps not.  This could go down as my stupidest trade of the year.  We'll see where the overseas markets end up tonight and go from there.   

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