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Wednesday, January 07, 2015

The bounce appeared on cue as the Dow rose 212 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still heading lower.  The question is the decline over or will we be heading lower?  My view is that the decline has ended.  That doesn't mean that we can't back and fill for a while.  But we are at technical levels that rallies have started from in the recent past.  A turn up in the summation index will support this view.  But who knows?  The market may surprise us here.  I did not think we would start the year off this negative.  My OEX January calls at least now have a bid, so perhaps they won't expire worthless.  GE was flat on the session with good volume.  My GE March calls are slightly in the red.  Gold was off around $8 in the futures market.  The US dollar continued its rise higher.  It has been quite a run here with no signs of letting up.  The XAU fell 1 1/4, while GDX lost 1/3.  Volume was lighter on the decline and that's a positive.  USO was up 1/3 as oil tries to stabilize again.  Hasn't happened yet.  I would guess that when it does we will see quite a bounce with short covering.  My USO February calls are losers.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We got a bounce in the stock indices where we needed to see one.  The up trend line from October remains intact.  If we do roll over here and take out that line, then I will have to change my bullish stance.  Anything could happen as always in this game.  My OEX calls are running out of time but I will at least wait for Fridays employment report.  This trade will be a loser, it is just a matter of how much.  GE isn't acting as I would like but the earnings are due next week and that should get things moving one way or the other.  USO didn't drop today but there is always tomorrow.  We'll see what happens overnight and go from there.

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