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Monday, January 05, 2015

We started out the week with a thud and a loud one at that.  The Dow fell 331 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were over 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index is now moving lower.  Let me be the first to admit that I do not know what is going on here.  The market knows all.  We are short term oversold but to keep declining with that condition is dangerous.  However the technical condition with regards to the summation index is not anywhere near the crash zone as it was in October.  That doesn't mean we can't fall apart but the odds are against it.  We will find the reasons for the markets weakness as we move along.  Of course my OEX January calls are near worthless after the stop loss order failed to fill.  That does not sit well with me.  But what can you do?  I'll be moving to the SPY options and see how they work out.  GE dropped 1/2 and the volume was good.  Here too, my stop loss order price was hit and not filled.  I have no answer for that.  I may simply just sell out tomorrow.  If there isn't option liquidity in these issues, then I don't know what to say.  Gold was up $17 on the futures and the US dollar was bit higher as well.  Flight to safety would be my guess.  The XAU rose 1 1/3 and GDX was up 1/2.  The beginning of the year gold share trade looks like a winner.  USO was off 1 1/8 and my February calls here are just about at the stop loss price.  Of course that doesn't mean that it will be filled.  Mentally I'm feeling OK despite the rough start to the trading year.  Something is going on in the markets that I am at a loss for an explanation.  We are short term oversold and now even more so.  We are also just about at an up trend line from the October lows on the major stock indices.  If that doesn't hold we could be in for a rough period.  Hasn't happened yet.  We did not get any type of downside blow off today in the stock indexes, so there is probably more weakness to come.  Gold found some buyers today and the gold shares as well.  I think that it is too late for a gold share trade here but if we see gold get through the $1240 level it may be worth a look.  Oil continues its free fall and it appears the USO trade that I did was simply a mistake.  A case of trying to find the bottom before the bottom was in.  You pay for your mistakes in this game.  Oil will eventually bounce and probably pretty good.  However from what level has yet to be determined.  We'll see if the worldwide markets follow the US lower overnight and brace for tomorrow. 

1 comment:

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