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Tuesday, January 27, 2015

The Dow took a hit today on poor earnings, mostly due to Microsoft.  The most watched index fell 291 points on lighter volume.  The advance/declines were negative but certainly not by the margin you would expect with the Dow down that much.  The summation index is still moving higher.  I still am looking at the SPY February calls.  I may purchase them tomorrow.  Now of course I could be wrong on this idea.  Perhaps waiting for the S&P 500 to test 2000 again would be a better plan.  So we'll see.  The short term technical indicators are move overbought than oversold so perhaps patience still is the best plan for now.  GE was off about 1/4 and the volume was average.  Indicators are rolling over here as well.  Perhaps there is more going on than I can tell but that is usually the case.  Gold gained $12 on the futures as the US dollar dropped almost a full point today.  The gold shares continue to attract money as the XAU rose 2 1/3, while GDX gained 3/4.  Overbought and staying there for the gold shares.  I'm not sure how long this can last but it's already been longer than I would have thought.  Perhaps the US dollar is going to take a break from its rally.  Maybe the tomorrows Fed statement will shed some light on todays price action in the dollar.  At least gold acted the way it normally would with the dollar weakness.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Tough trading at the moment as there is really no trend.  If the S&P 500 breaks through 2000 and stays there, it would be trouble in my opinion.  I'm still looking at the SPY calls if we get down there and the technical are oversold.  Plenty of time in the February option cycle.  My GE March calls are still in the red.  Gold hasn't reached the $1340 measuring objective yet.  The gold shares continue to outperform and that is bullish.  We'll see if the foreign markets follow the Dow lower and take it from there. 

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