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Monday, January 12, 2015

Almost another triple digit move as the Dow fell 96 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative.  This should move the summation index lower.  However it appears that the summation index is actually moving sideways at this time.  I can't say that I understand the market dynamics at this point.  We are trying to find our way here.  The up trend line from October is still intact.  As long as that holds, I'll continue with a bullish posture and call for new all time highs at some point this month.  My OEX January calls are going to be big losers and will probably expire worthless.  GE was off a nickel and the volume was average.  Waiting on Fridays earnings here.  That will most likely determine the outcome of the GE March call trade.  Gold continues to rally as it gained over $15 on the futures.  The US dollar was slightly higher today.  The XAU was up 2 7/8.  The gold shares had good volume to the upside and that is a positive sign.  The fact that gold can rally with oil declining and the dollar rising is something to take note of.  However gold and the gold shares are now overbought.  USO fell 7/8 and I sold the USO February calls for a 90% loss.  The stop loss order did not work here as well and that is something that I will have to correct on my own.  The discipline required to trade must be followed or losses will just continue to pile up.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Not exactly sure what to think of the market here as the technicals are mid-range.  We could go either way.  The positive expiration week bias is not evident yet.  The lack of upside follow through to last weeks gains on Wednesday and Thursday is not positive.  The bearish belt hold candlestick pattern on the daily Dow chart is a concern.  Plenty of economic data this week, with retail sales numbers and inflation stats.  So expect some volatility.  Oil continues its drop and trying the USO calls was a bad move on my part.  Mistakes cost money in this game.  My ideas haven't worked out so far in 2015.  Perhaps I will just stick to one trade at a time for a while.  I am also seriously considering trading the SPY options because the liquidity appears to be far greater than for the OEX.  But I won't actually know if that's the case until I put some orders in.  The gold shares have been the place to be so far for the beginning of the year.  We'll see how that continues to play out going forward.  We'll keep an eye on the overseas action tonight and go from there.  

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