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Wednesday, January 28, 2015

The market had a one day negative reversal today, opening higher and closing lower.  The Dow dropped 195 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 negative.  It appears that we are at the moment of truth here for the major stock indices.  We are back at 2000 for the S&P 500.  Whether or not it holds up here will be the key.  The fact that we fell apart in the final hour is bearish.  The small stocks have been holding up better here so maybe we can stem the decline.  But the short term technical indicators have rolled over.  Tomorrow could be pretty important.  I'd still like to try the SPY February calls.  GE was off 1/2 and the volume was heavy.  This does not bode well for the overall market.  If GE takes out $23.50 it will probably spell trouble overall.  My GE March calls continue to shed premium.  Looks like another loser.  Gold was off five bucks on the futures as the US dollar bounced back.  The gold shares saw selling today.  The XAU fell 3 1/2, while GDX lost 7/8.  Volume picked up a bit here.  A lot of things saw selling today as USO sunk to a new low.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Perhaps the drop in oil today caused the late selling.  The Fed statement had nothing different.  We still have the GDP report on Friday.  I'm not quite sure what to make of the markets price action.  The recent breadth has been pretty good but prices have fallen.  You could make a case that we've been in a trading range since the start of December and we are now at the bottom of the range.  I'll have to check all the indicators later tonight and decide what to do or not do from there.  If we have built a top here we are going to head much lower.  The jury is still out.  Gold didn't find any buyers on the sell off and that may or may not mean something.  It along with the gold shares remains overbought.  I will have to be patient here to try the long side again.  There is a lot to consider overnight.  We'll look to see what happens overseas and take it from there.

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