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Wednesday, January 21, 2015

A mostly positive day as the Dow gained 39 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still heading down but after today it will be on the verge of turning around.  I certainly think that we are going higher from here but we will have to get the European central bank statement out of the way tomorrow.  I have no idea how the market will react to whatever they have to say.  However we are turning up on the short term technical indicators for the major stock indices.  I'm still favoring the SPY calls here but would hope to see some pullback if I am going to do something.  It is probably too late anyway.  GE was up almost another 1/4 on average volume.  So far so good this week for GE.  But the earnings will determine the direction going forward.  It's a waiting game at this point.  Gold ended the day little changed on the futures but did bounce up and down during the session.  The US dollar was a bit lower today.  The XAU was off 7/8 and GDX shed 1/3.  Gold and the gold shares are over extended here.  Perhaps considering some calls if we get oversold down the road.  USO was up 1/3.  I think that I am going to disregard the oil trading from here on out.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So now we wait for the markets reaction to tomorrows announcement.  This has been played up as to be a major factor as to where the European economy is headed.  But I don't think anything can predict that.  All we care about is the market reaction and where we go from here.  There's a possibility that whatever happens has already been priced in as well.  So we'll see.  Gold has moved higher along with the US dollar and that is not the usual relationship.  There is also no threat of inflation right now, yet gold continues to climb.  What I see is money and volume going into gold and the gold shares.  You cannot deny that.  We'll have to see how much longer that lasts.  If we are lucky we'll get a snap back to the reverse head and shoulders breakout.  If that occurs that would be the logical spot to purchase calls.  We'll watch and wait for whatever comes out of Europe tomorrow.  It should be interesting to say the least.

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