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Tuesday, December 16, 2014

Once again the market failed to hold on to a decent intra-day gain.  The Dow was up well over 200 points during the session but finished the day with a loss of 112 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index continues to head lower.  We finished near the lows of the day and that isn't bullish.  We are seeing a worldwide liquidation of assets.  I do not know the reason why.  My guess is heavy margin calls around the world due to leveraged assets related to oil and other commodities.  But that's just a guess.  My theory of how things would play out here was wrong.  The reverse head and shoulders patterns in the major stock indices are not taking place.  GE was off a dime and the volume was heavy again.  I still have the GE March calls but they are losing value and might be stopped out soon.  That will be the case if the overall market decline continues.  Gold was off over $10 on the futures but this was baked in yesterday in the aftermarket.  The US dollar got crushed today.  Gold not being able to rally on a very weak day for the US dollar is not at all bullish.  Once again I don't know why.  The XAU fell almost a point.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on heavy volume.  My ABX January calls got to the stop price but I do not know if it was filled.  The market makers danced around my stop limit order.  I'll check back again later tonight but this is the second time this year where the mechanics of a trade haven't worked properly.  Everybody loves electronic trading though.  Until it doesn't work right.  Mentally I'm feeling OK and getting some strength back as well.  Not all the way back to normal yet.  We get the Fed announcement tomorrow.  I have no idea what the reaction to that might be.  It's probably best to be careful here and not make any huge decisions.  The market forces are pretty powerful at times and this seems to be one of those times.  I still believe that next year will be a good one for the stock market.  But the question now seems to be from what level will the year begin?  USO had an up session and the volume was massive.  Trying to hold things up here perhaps?  I guess I'm going to stay on the sidelines here, as I have never traded this issue before and the markets are in crazy mode.  Gold should have had a rally today on the weaker dollar and didn't.  I'm not sure what's next here either.  The gold shares are short term oversold.  I'll see if I was sold out of the ABX January call position and decide whether I'd like to try that again.  We'll see if the foreign markets can hold up overnight and take it from there.

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