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Wednesday, December 17, 2014

We witnessed a huge bounce today as the Dow soared 288 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 8 to 1 positive.  We were overbought and overdue for some upside but this was quite a bump.  The market also liked what the Fed had to say and that helped extend the rally.  The decline is over in my humble opinion.  I did place an order last night for some OEX January calls but it was not filled.  I am leaving in an open order for this trade because now is the time.  Some of my technical indicators are at the levels they were when we rallied in October.  If we are lucky perhaps the market will drift back and the calls will be filled.  If not we will have to adjust because I'm still a believer that the beginning of next year will be positive.  GE was up over 1/8 on extremely heavy volume.  It appears that we have put in a bottom here as well, looking at the daily candlestick chart.  My GE March calls are still in the red.  Gold was flat on the session but dropped a bit in the aftermarket.  The US dollar had a very strong session.  It was a surprise that gold did not fall further.  The XAU was up 3 1/3, following the overall market.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains under a dollar on good volume.  I was stopped out from my ABX January call trade yesterday for a 45% loss.  I don't think that I will try ABX again here but may attempt the index GDX on the long side.  But I'm not sure that gold will rally here.  Gold itself remains more overbought than oversold at the moment.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Oil has held up the past couple of days and that has provided some relief for the stock markets.  The extreme oversold short term condition of the stock indices was due to be relieved as well.  The question will be if this is a real bounce or not but I believe that it is.  Declines can once again be purchased.  I don't know if the market will give us a chance though.  I'm looking at the OEX January calls.  USO has stabilized for the past two days on very heavy volume.  Something is trying to keep this issue from falling any further.  We'll see if it works.  Oil is pretty blown out to the downside.  The gold shares outperformed gold today and that is bullish.  But one day doesn't make a trend.  The fundamentals for gold are still negative.  However I cannot rule out a short term rally as the year turns for the gold shares.  I'm thinking that there could be some bottom fishing by money managers to start 2015.  I could be wrong.  We'll watch to see if the foreign markets follow the US lead overnight.  Volatility has returned.

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