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Thursday, December 04, 2014

Bouncing around today and negative for the most part as the Dow fell 12 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were about 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is trending sideways.  Waiting on the jobs numbers.  We could go either way here but I'm looking for a bullish outcome.  Declines are still being purchased and I expect that to continue.  GE fell 1/3 on average volume.  I still have an open order in for the March calls here.  Gold was basically flat on the futures despite a drop in the US dollar.  That isn't bullish.  The XAU dropped about 1 2/3.  ABX and NEM fell 1/3, while GG shed 2/3.  Volume was light.  Not sure what to make of todays price action but as long as the gold shares continue to move sideways I'll remain with a bullish position.  My ABX January calls remain in the black but have lost some profit.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Not sure what we'll see from the employment report tomorrow but I don't expect some big decline.  Money continues to flow into US stocks and that trend has been pretty consistent.  Given the positive seasonal factor in place now, higher prices are the expected outcome.  The trend is up and you should night fight it.  Gold is stuck at the 50 day moving average as are the gold shares.  Perhaps tomorrows data will get things moving.  Or not.  The short term technical indicators are overbought for gold and mid-range for the gold shares.  USO remains oversold but that doesn't mean that it can't go lower.  Just because something looks cheap doesn't mean that it can't get cheaper.  I'm keeping an eye on it and still may make a trade here.  We'll watch the overnight developments and await the employment report tomorrow morning. 

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