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Friday, December 12, 2014

It was another downer for the Dow today as it got clobbered and fell 315 points on once again heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues lower.  We closed on the lows of the day and that isn't bullish.  The S&P 500 is just about at 2000, where I believe support will kick in.  But perhaps I'm just off the mark here.  Maybe there is some disaster in the markets waiting to happen.  Technically, I just don't see it.  The small stocks are holding up relatively better.  The reverse head and shoulders patterns that I anticipate are still in place.  Granted, if we see another week as negative as this one next week, I'll have to change my tune.  But for now this decline to me is a breather on the way to higher prices and a good start to the new year.  We'll see.  GE was off 1/2 and the volume was heavy.  This drop occurred despite GE raising its dividend.  In a normal market with this kind of positive development, a nice price spike would occur.  But selling was the theme of the day.  The March GE calls that I own are now in the red.  If I do get stopped out of this trade I will probably try it again at a different strike price.  Hasn't happened yet.  Gold was off a few bucks on the futures and the US dollar was lower as well.  Disappointing to not see gold get a bid with the recent market turmoil.  It certainly isn't a positive.  The XAU slid another 1 1/4.  ABX off 1/3, with GG and NEM losing 1/2.  Volume was a little better today.  My ABX January calls are barely in the black.  This is a trade that should have been closed out weeks ago.  Five weeks to go in the January option cycle and two of those week will be holiday mode.  Mentally I'm feeling OK but still a bit under the weather physically.  Where do we go from here will be the question thought about over the weekend.  Support for the Dow is close at hand around 17200.  Previous tops and the 50 day moving average are around this level.  Will the support hold is now the question.  The summation index is still heading lower.  The McClellan oscillator is getting pretty oversold.  But that doesn't mean that it can't get more oversold.  I'm still looking for the stock indexes to stabilize next week though.  I could be wrong.  Gold is short term overbought right now, with the gold shares moving into oversold territory.  Not really a clear picture of what to expect there.  The USO trade that I am thinking about maybe just isn't a good idea.  This issue is in a free fall on heavy volume.  I suppose I have been fortunate enough to not have tried anything yet.  I suppose if it makes it all the way to $20, I'll consider it.  The snap back here will probably be pretty dramatic when it comes.  There will be a lot to consider over the weekend and hopefully my overall health will return back to normal.  I'll be the first to admit that my thinking has been rather slow this past week.  That won't cut it in this game or any other.  As always the market doesn't care and goes where it wants.  Plenty of research to be done over the weekend.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

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