It was just another lackluster day in the markets as the Dow gained 47 points on light volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. It's just more of the same here as we are grinding higher approaching the 200 day moving average line on the S&P 500. Volatility is low and that will change eventually. The question is, when? Option expiration week coming up and we'll see if it has its usual positive bias. No OEX trades at the moment but I'm probably going to try some October OEX puts if we stall again at around 1130 basis S&P 500. Gold was off almost $5 on the futures, while the XAU gained 1 3/4. ABX and NEM were up around 1/2. GG was flat. Volume extremely low here. The dollar closed about unchanged today. The weekly charts on the gold shares have stalled. The metal itself continues to act better. I don't know what it means going forward but you'd rather see them move in tandem. I'm still leaning towards the October ABX calls. No trades for now though. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Hard for me to figure out just where we are going from here. The lack of participation isn't a good sign in my opinion. However we could see some type of short squeeze if we get above 1110 on the S&P 500. That seems to be the short term resistance for now. The summation index continues higher and that still implies that the trend is up. I'm going to stay on the sidelines for now and watch where we go in the beginning of next week. But now the weekend is here and it's time for a break.

The Dow rose 28 points on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. We were higher than that early on. Not much to say here really. Sideways for now. Summation index still moving higher. Option expiration next week. Gold dropped $6 today and fell further in the aftermarket. The XAU shed 3 1/3. ABX down 1 1/4, GG down 2/3 and NEM down 1 1/3. Volume light as usual. The dollar didn't do much today. No trades in mind for the gold shares at the moment. I will keep an eye on the October calls though. Mentally I'm feeling OK. There isn't much going on for all I can tell here. The markets are lightly traded and stuck in a trading range as I have stated before. Sooner or later, that will change. I'm trying to remain patient at this time. It isn't always easy. However as the time passes, perhaps my confidence will return and that would be a plus. Sidelines for now.

The Dow gained 46 points today on again quite light volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. Not much data except the Fed book. Obama had a speech for the public. Usually when Obama talks the market goes down, so maybe this is a positive going forward. The extremely light volume is worrisome to me because it will take volume to move this thing higher. So we'll see. I am looking at the October OEX puts now. However it seems as though most market pundits are calling for a swoon here. The market never accommodates the majority. Gold was off a bit today and the XAU fell 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on lght volume. I'll continue to wait here on the next gold share trade. The dollar was weaker today but that did not help the precious metal. No volume here either. Mentally I'm doing OK, could have slept better. So it's a waiting game for me here. Only 2 days left this week and then September option expiration week. No trades in sight at the moment. That could change as we progress going forward. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

We began the shortened week on an inauspicious note as the Dow lost 107 points on very light volume. Advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 negative. Rumblings of trouble again in the European credit markets were the excuse for the drop in prices today. We'll have to wait and see if there is any follow through tomorrow. We were approaching short term overbought and todays activity relieves some of that condition. Gold had a good day, up $5 as it backed off from setting a new all time high. The XAU managed to gain 1/2. The gold shares were mixed, with ABX up 1/2, NEM up 1 1/4 and GG down 1/2. Volume was light to average. The dollar had a good day and yet gold managed to rally. Gold it about at new highs but the gold share indices are nowhere near their old highs. We'll see what this means going forward. I'm getting long the gold shares on the next Gold/XAU buy signal. We are not close to a signal at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling better after the long holiday weekend. I'm making some trading tactic adjustments, to help prevent the kind of poorly managed trade that I just experienced. I'm also cutting down my amounts to trade until I can regain some sort of level of confidence. We're still in a trading range for the major stock indices. The S&P 500 has a potential head and shoulders bottom in place. For this pattern to be valid, we would have to break through 1135 on good volume. I'm not sold on that. I still feel that we will be heading lower and taking out 1040 on the S&P. I may try the October puts in the future.

The Dow continued higher as we closed the week with a gain of 127 points on light volume. Advance/declines were over 3 to 1 positive. Summation index moving higher. I dumped the OEX puts for an 80% loss. The employment report was weak but not as weak as expected. That was a horrible trade. It had no stop loss provision which was my own fault. I also had a gut feeling when it was filled that it wasn't the right trade to put on at the time. But I didn't listen to my gut and I paid the price. There are no excuses though. You've got to live with the losses and with the gains. It's been a bad year so far. I doubt that I'll be able to recover to break even. Gold lost a couple of bucks and the XAU gained 3/8 after selling off early. ABX was flat, GG lost a buck and NEM fell 2/3. Volume was light. These issues also were lower earlier in the session. I'm tempted to get some ABX calls here because the daily chart looks like it wants to turn back to the upside. But there is no buy sign from the Gold/XAU ratio. Not to mention that my confidence is shot once again. The dollar was weaker today but gold didn't manage a rally either. Mentally I'm feeling down after another loss. It could have been mitigated with the proper tactics. It wasn't and there is no one to blame but myself. Not the way that I'd like to start a long holiday weekend. It's basically back to the drawing board. The market found support and is now going to challenge the overhead resistance. Perhaps we are still in a trading range. I'll have to check things out over the next few days. For now it's Friday afternoon at the end of summer. Time for a break.

The Dow tacked on another 50 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. The summation index has now turned positive. It was quite impressive actually, considering yesterdays huge gain. The trend is up. My OEX puts are dead and all that's left for this trade is calculating the loss. Employment numbers tomorrow and the only hope is that they are weaker than anticipated. You can't trade on hope though. The sellers have disappeared. Just another mistake in the many of this year. Gold was up $5 and the XAU gained 2 1/8. ABX and GG were basically flat, while NEM gained 1 1/4. Volume was light. The dollar didn't do much today. Gold still looks like it could break out to a new high. But the big cap gold shares are nowhere near their old highs. Mentally I'm feeling OK. All eyes wait for tomorrows numbers. It's also a Friday before a long holiday weekend. The volume could be lighter than usual. But volume has been light for quite a while. So we'll see how it goes tomorrow and take it from there. I don't expect this OEX trade to be saved, even with a weaker number than expected.

We broke out to the upside today as the Dow gained 255 points on average volume. Advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. The down trend line in effect since the beginning of August was broken to the upside. My order for the OEX puts was filled and it's a loser. I'll give it until the employment report on Friday but the tide has turned. We may revisit the downtrend line that was just violated and that would give me a chance to get out and cut the loss. Timing is everything and there was a chance that we'd see something like today as I mentioned yesterday. But the song remains the same for me this year. And it hasn't been a good one. Gold lost a couple of bucks even with a weaker dollar. The XAU fell 7/8. ABX fell 1 3/8, GG off 3/4 and NEM dropped a buck. Volume picked up to the downside. The daily charts here have turned bearish. I canceled the open order for the ABX September calls. Perhaps I'll try the October calls when we get another buy signal on the Gold/XAU ratio. But for now I'll have to concern myself with the OEX trade. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, could have slept better. So it's another mistake for now with regards to the OEX trade. Could things turn around and make this trade a winner? Perhaps but not off of todays market action. I'll let tomorrow pass and wait for Friday. Unless we get another upside breakout. We are perched at the 50 day moving average on the S&P 500 daily chart. A break through there and this trade will be done.

It was an up and down session with the Dow ending with a gain of 5 points on better volume. Advance/declines were positive. We are oversold both short and medium term. I'm leaving in the open order for the OEX puts but it could be a mistake. The S&P 500 has drawn a line in the sand at 1040. If that breaks, we will be heading lower for sure. Beginning of the month tomorrow and it's possible we could see some inflows of cash. We'll see. Gold was up $10 today and we are on the cusp of breaking out to new highs there. The XAU gained 2 1/4. ABX up 3/8, GG up 1/2 and NEM led the way higher, up 1 3/8. Volume was better than it has been. End of the month purchases? Money continues to find a home here. I placed an order for some ABX September calls. If we do break out in gold, the gold shares should follow. We are overbought and staying there. I'm not exactly sure this is the right trade to try because there isn't a buy signal from the Gold/XAU ratio. However the price is far enough away that it could be triggered if we get there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The overall stock market has been in a funk for a few weeks now. There is a chance we are putting in a bottom here and will head higher in the beginning of September. I'm sticking with the OEX puts though. The summation index continues lower but that could change with a very positive day. It could all hinge on Fridays employment report. Time will tell. I'll stick with the open order trades that I have in for now and adjust things as necessary.

The Dow gave back what it gained on Friday. The loss was 141 points on very light volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. I placed an order for some OEX puts overnight and it was not filled. I adjusted the strike price down and replaced the original order. In downtrends, sometimes rallies appear from nowhere, as was the case on Friday. However the downtrend soon reasserts itself. That seems to be the case today. Volume was very weak though. Summation index still heading lower. Gold was flat today but the XAU lost 1 1/4 points. ABX and NEM were little changed, while GG lost a bit over 1/2. Volume wasn't much here either. The gold shares continue to show amazing relative strength. I think that the next Gold/XAU ratio buy signal that is generated will be my cue for the gold share calls. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling frustrated. I cannot seem to get filled on the OEX put order. Perhaps I'm just trying to be a bit too cute. Sometimes you just have to buy it and take your chances. I'll need to get something done before the employment report on Friday. End of the month tomorrow and that could bring even more selling. Lots of data out this week, so there will be reasons for price movement. The trend is down and remains so until further notice.

Today we got a bounce as the Dow gained 165 points on average volume. Advance/declines were 6 to 1 positive. The GDP number wasn't as bad as feared by some. Plus there was some Bernanke babble that was viewed as positive. Have we put in a trading bottom here? Perhaps. The mood is quite bearish. I canceled my open order for the OEX puts. No need to hold it over the weekend. I do believe that we are going to head lower. I'll ponder my next move over the weekend. Gold ended the session basically flat, while the XAU gained 3 3/4. ABX up 1/3, GG gained a buck and NEM rose 1/2. Volume picked up as well. Plenty of interest in the gold shares. I still may try the calls here but I also canceled the open order here. No need to have anything out there over the weekend. The weekly charts still look bullish for the gold shares. I may try something next week. The daily charts are overbought though. Again, things to think about over the weekend. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I'll need to go over the charts this weekend and be ready with a game plan for next week. 3 weeks in the September cycle and one less day due to Labor Day. Another week until the major players return from summer vacation. It's the last weekend in August. Time for a rest.

The Dow lost 74 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. GDP revision tomorrow. There just are not a lot of buyers and I have yet to see a short covering rally. Summation index continues lower. I still have in an open order in for some OEX September puts but it doesn't look like it will be filled anytime soon. I'm a bit frustrated about not catching this down move but I believe that if I remain patient there will be a chance to do so before the September expiration. Gold lost $3 today but the XAU rose 3 points. ABX up 1, GG up 1 1/3 and NEM up 3/4. Again, the September gold share calls are something that I should already be in. ABX is poised to break above $47 soon. Volume is picking up to the upside. I think there is a chance that when everyone returns in a week or so that they will pile into the precious metal as a safe haven play. I'm leaving in the order for the ABX September calls. Mentally I'm trying to remain positive despite missing these moves. It isn't easy. I'm still convinced that we are going lower in the OEX for the September option cycle. Sooner or later there should be a decent snap back rally and that would provide the opportunity that I'm waiting for. It hasn't happened so far. As for the gold shares, the Gold/XAU ratio is out of the buy zone. The next time it gets there I'll be purchasing some gold share calls. It may be too late though. On to Friday.

We opened lower and closed higher as the Dow gained 20 points. Advance/declines were positive. Volume was average. We're still oversold. I placed an open order for some OEX puts. I'll adjust it as necessary. I really don't expect much of a bounce here. I could be wrong. Fed speak tomorrow and the GDP revision on Friday. So we'll see. Gold was up $8 today and the XAU gained 4 1/4. ABX and GG rose 1 1/3. NEM tacked on 1 2/3. Volume was average. I also placed an open order in for some September ABX calls. It may be too late. The dollar didn't do much today. Money continues to flow into the precious metal. It should move with the GDP revision. I'll adjust this order going forward as well. Mentally I'm feeling OK. So I have a couple of orders in and we'll see where things go. I still feel that we will be heading lower in the indices. But I need to see some upside to get short. The OEX put open order is priced away from the market. I also adjusted the strike price. Summation index continues lower. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Down is the direction as the Dow lost 134 points on average volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. What else can I say? We are headed lower. I will try and get short on any snap back rally. No interest in owning stocks at the moment. The housing data was awful and we already knew that. GDP data on Friday and that will look bad most likely as well. Oversold, staying there and that isn't changing. We'll see how it goes. Gold was up $5 but the XAU fell 2 2/3. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on average volume. The Gold/XAU ratio is back in the buy zone. Perhaps I'll take a look at the September calls again. Maybe check Octobers while I'm at it. The dollar dropped a touch today. Gold is holding up rather well here. But it is summer, so things may not be as they appear. September is historically a good month for the precious metal though. But if the overall market tanks it will take everything with it. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Still trying to wait for some type of bounce. I'm sure that I'm not the only one. Perhaps a bounce will never come. There is no doubt that we are going lower, the only question is how far?

Another day, another downer as the Dow lost 39 points on very light volume. We opened higher and closed lower which isn't a bullish sign. Advance/declines were negative. Summation index heading lower. Oversold and staying there. It is like a broken record. Real estate data out tomorrow and it can't possibly be good. I'd still like to get the OEX September puts but I have to see some type of bounce. The light volume is a problem as well as I've mentioned before. So we'll see. Gold lost a buck today and the XAU fell 2 1/4. ABX, GG and NEM all had around 1/2 point or more losses on extremely light volume. The dollar was up a touch. Gold futures expire this week and that could skew things short term. Almost back to a buy signal on the Gold/XAU ratio. I don't think I'll be getting any gold share calls but you never know. We are working off the overbought conditions there. Mentally I'm doing OK. It's the end of the summer so the major market players are still on vacation. That makes it tough to step up to the plate here as well. The continued oversold nature of the stock indices could turn into a real problem if we don't see any upside soon. We are overdue for some type of positive move. I'll keep an eye on things and see how it goes for now.

We ended the week on a down note as the Dow lost 57 points on light volume. Advance/declines were negative. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. The weekly charts are looking bearish for the stock indices. That said, the daily charts show a potential bullish head and shoulders pattern here. The summation index is heading lower though. We are oversold as well. So there are some crosscurrents. I still want to get some September OEX puts. The summer light volume is hard to figure because we've had some volatility but no volume. So we'll see. Gold lost $6 today and the XAU 1 1/8. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional losses on light volume. The XAU sold off early and made somewhat of a comeback. The dollar had a good day so the inverse relationship to the precious metal is working again. We're still overbought on the gold shares. Perhaps I'll try the calls here but I'll have to ponder things over the weekend. Mentally I'm feeling OK. It's getting near the end of August and things should begin to pick up with regards to volume within a couple of weeks. Some data out next week with home sales early in the week and a GDP revision late in the week. I can't expect the home sales numbers to be strong but it may already be in the price of the market. I'll check the charts over the weekend and take it from there. It's a warm Friday afternoon in the summer. Time for a break.

Back to the downside as the Dow lost 144 points on average volume. Advance/declines were over 3 to 1 negative. Volume was average. The economic data was weak today and gave the market a reason to sell off. Todays action should send the summation index lower again. We are oversold still and the bounce we had was anemic. Perhaps things are even weaker than I thought. I canceled my open order for the September OEX puts. My price would not be filled. I'm still a believer in that idea though and will be putting in another order soon. Gold was up $4 today but the XAU fell 1 1/2. ABX and GG were down 3/8, while NEM dropped a buck. Volume was light as it has been. The dollar had a bit of strength. Gold is overbought but it has seen some interest since the beginning of the month. The September calls still might be in play for me if we get oversold in the next week or so. But it's probably too late. Weak volume on the rise also. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well enough. The stock index charts need to hold up here or we will be heading lower. Perhaps yesterday was the last chance to get the September puts at a decent price. Time will tell. Todays market reaction to the data wasn't bullish. Often times it's not the data itself but what the market does afterward that tells the story. I suppose I'll keep looking at the September OEX puts for a buy point.

We opened lower, climbed back to be higher and then closed about unchanged as the Dow gained 9 points on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. Still more oversold than overbought but the market has a listless tone to it. I still have an open order in for the September OEX puts. I adjusted the price down a touch in case we get a breakout above 1100 on the S&P 500. But it could be that we've seen whatever bounce there is and go lower from here. I don't know. The volume has been so light this summer that it's really hard to say exactly what is going on. Gold was up 3 bucks today and the gold shares continue to shine. The XAU rose 3 1/2. ABX and NEM were higher by around a buck, while GG led the way up 1 3/4. Volume was better than it has been but still very weak. The dollar didn't do much today. Are we headed for a new high in gold? Overbought and staying there for now. Money is heading into the gold shares for whatever reason. Another missed opportunity. Mentally I'm doing OK. August is a little over halfway through. The plan for now remains to purchase some September OEX puts. We do have to get through the next 2 weeks of summer slowdown though. I expect things will not return to what is considered normal until after Labor day. Perhaps waiting until then for the next trade is the proper strategy. We'll see.

We got a bounce today as the Dow gained 103 points on light volume. Advance/declines were over 3 to 1 positive. We were up around 175 at one juncture during the day. So I was a day early on the OEX calls and it cost me. That's the nature of the game when there isn't a lot of time left on the options. As usual, timing is everything. The market action wasn't too positive towards the close. I do now have an open order in for some September OEX puts. Not sure when and if it will be filled. There is the summer slow volume problem to deal with. We'll see. Gold was up a couple of bucks today and the XAU gained 2 3/8. ABX and NEM both gained 2/3. GG was up 3/8. Volume light again. We are overbought on the gold shares but the charts are heading higher. I'm not sure about making a trade here but you never know. We are in the seasonal strong period for gold. The Gold/XAU ratio signal is off for now. The dollar fell a bit today. It's possible that the recent strength in gold is due to the market selling off or the potential for the market to sell off in the future. That's a guess as usual. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep enough. So we will have to see if there is any follow through to the upside tomorrow. Some data out on Thursday but that is about it. 3 days left in the August option cycle. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

It was a light volume Monday as the Dow lost a point. The advance/declines were positive. The market gapped down at the open and hit my stop loss order. So it was a 50% loss in a matter of 15 market minutes. That can happen. Not a lot of money involved but a loss none the less. I still expect upside and soon. Oversold both short and medium term. I'll now simply focus on the September OEX puts. However the slowness of the summer could be a problem. Gold continues to be the place to be as it gained $10. The XAU rose 2 1/2. ABX and GG gained 3/4, while NEM rose a buck. Volume continues extremely light here as well. But you cannot ignore the price movement. I really think it's too late for the September gold share calls at this point but we'll see. If the market does take the drop I'm expecting, the gold shares will go with it. Another missed opportunity? Time will tell. Mentally I'm feeling pretty good despite todays loss. It would not surprise me to see a solid upside day tomorrow with the current oversold condition. I thought about perhaps trying the OEX calls again today but did not. The next trade will be the OEX puts. The timing will have to be good because things will probably remain slow until around Labor day. It won't be easy. However I've been waiting all summer to put on this trade and if correct it will have been worth the wait.

The Dow lost 17 points today on very summer light volume. Advance/declines were negative. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. The market bounced around and closed practically on its low for the day. I took a chance here and bought some OEX calls near the close. I had an open order in for most of the session and it got filled near the end of trading. I'm still expecting some type of bounce on Monday but if we don't get one, then I'll know the market is even weaker here than I thought. This should be a quick trade if it works. The stop loss order is in. Gold was flat on the day but the XAU lost 1 3/4. ABX lost 1/4, GG down 1/2 and NEM fell a buck. Volume very light here as well. The dollar had a bit of strength today. The Gold/XAU ratio is in the buy zone. I'm bouncing back and forth as whether to get the September gold share calls. The weekly charts look bullish but the daily charts not so much. I'll have to go over things again this weekend. Mentally I'm a bit tired, could have slept more. Short term oversold here and I do expect some upside. However the summation index is heading lower and the major trend is now down in my humble opinion. I'll be looking to get some September OEX puts at some point here in the near future. The problem is that it is still summer and the volume is pathetic. Things can easily be moved around or just go nowhere. Expiration week coming up so we'll see how it goes. I'll check the charts over the weekend and be ready for Monday morning. However it could just be a slow summer Monday. We'll see. It's a summer weekend and time for a rest.

We continued lower as the Dow lost 58 points on light volume. Advance/declines were negative. We were in the red for the full trading session. That said, we are shirt term oversold and I do expect a bounce by Monday. I had an idea to try and play the OEX calls today for the expected bounce but did not. I'll have to mull things over tonight. I think that it is a trade that could work. I'm still going to get some September OEX puts though, perhaps next week. Gold had a good day and was up $17. The XAU gained 3 1/2. ABX was up 3/4, GG up a buck and NEM led the way, up 1 3/4. Volume was light but better than it has been. I'm still liking the gold shares because even though we've moved higher the Gold/XAU ratio is still close to the buy zone. Perhaps I will go out to September for the calls. We're overbought here though but that doesn't mean the precious metal won't move higher. The weekly gold share charts look pretty bullish. I'll ponder this idea tonight as well. The dollar moved up today as well but it did not affect gold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I do have a couple of ideas for trades that I did not consider until this weeks market action. I'll decide exactly what to do tonight. I do not want to lose focus on the main idea going forward though. That is to buy some OEX September puts on a move back towards the S&P 500 200 day moving average line. Gold looks good on the weekly charts and it would not be out of the question for it to rise on a stock market drop. 6 days to go on the August option cycle and next week is expiration. I'll check the charts tonight and take it from there.

Today we got clobbered as the Dow lost 265 on average volume. Advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative. The McClellan oscillator will be turning negative today. The expected decline has begun. The S&P 500 could not make it past the 200 day moving average line. I will be looking to purchase some September OEX puts when we get a snap back. Hopefully we will and I expect this to occur early next week. We have gotten oversold in a hurry. The gold futures were little changed on the day but the XAU lost 4 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM all fell more than a buck on light volume. The dollar had a very good day on the flight to safety trade. Gold held up rather well considering. Obviously things have changed and I am considering a short term ABX call trade now for August. I expect a bounce by Monday in the stock indices and the gold shares should participate. The buy signal has returned for the Gold/XAU ratio. I'll no longer consider going out to September on the gold share trade after todays negative market action. Mentally I'm doing OK. So we have todays very negative action to consider going forward. Was this just a one day wonder? It could be but I doubt it. The technicals have now rolled over for the major indices. My thinking is to perhaps try the short term gold share trade immediately followed by getting the OEX puts for September. I'll have to look things over again tonight and take it from there. I do expect a bounce by Monday but the market will do what it wants.

We got the Fed out of the way as the Dow lost 54 points on light volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. We were down over 100 at one point but came back on the Fed keeping rates low "for an extended period of time". This is nothing new from the Fed. We have hovered around the 200 day moving average line in the S&P 500 for a few days. Haven't been able to break through to the upside yet but I think it will happen. I still want the OEX puts for the autumn but would like to wait for now. It isn't easy trying to be patient. Gold was down in the regular session but shot up after the Fed announcement. The dollar was higher early but also turned around on the Fed. That was the reason for the upside in gold in my opinion. The XAU was little changed after being lower early. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional upside gains after selling off early in the day as well. Volume was light but more than it has been lately. It has been such a light volume rally in the gold shares that getting the September calls may not be the thing to do. However if we do get a pullback, I'm still considering it. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. So here's my trading dilemma at the moment. I do expect a decent fall in the overall market in the coming weeks. But I would like to get long the gold shares. Getting long will not work if the market takes a hit. The weekly charts for gold look very promising for an upside move. Also gold has a pretty good correlation with the price of wheat. The price of wheat recently went parabolic to the upside. Could the same thing happen with gold? On the flip side the overall stock market has had a light volume rally that appears to be running out of steam. The over the counter shares have been weaker than the Dow and you really want to look for NASDAQ and Russell 2000 to be leaders, not laggards. If we are building a top here the resulting drop could be severe. I would like to be on the short side if that occurs. So there's my problem. I am at least going to try and wait until expiration week to do anything at this point. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

A summer doldrums Monday as the Dow gained 45 points on extremely light volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. Waiting on the Fed announcement tomorrow. Summation index continues higher. All indications are for the market to move higher. I have no OEX trades in mind right now. Gold lost a couple bucks and the XAU was flat. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other on very light volume. The dollar had a slight gain today. If we get a pullback in the gold shares I will probably try the September ABX calls. But that remains to be seen. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well. 9 days left in the August option cycle. I don't foresee anything happening in the near future to bring me off of the sidelines. I still would like to get some OEX puts when I feel the time is right. The rally in the stock market has been on light volume and I simply do not trust it. I could be wrong and often am. Perhaps market forces can keep things going up until Labor day. But unless the volume picks up I will not be a believer. We'll see what the Fed has to say tomorrow.

The Dow sold off early with the disappointing employment report and was off over 150 points. However we made a late day comeback and the Dow closed with a loss of 21 points. Advance/declines were negative and the volume was light. The market has shown great resilience lately and wants to go higher. Summation index still moving to the upside. You cannot argue with the market. The only fly in the ointment is the volume but it is summertime. I'm still leaning towards getting some OEX puts for the autumn. Gold was up $6 and the XAU gained 1 2/3. ABX, GG and NEM were all higher by 1/2 to 2/3. Volume was the usual light here. The dollar was weaker on the poor jobs report and gold finally acted as it should in relation to the dollar. If we get a pullback in the gold shares, I may try the September ABX calls. The weekly charts in the gold shares are looking bullish. So we'll see. The reality is that I probably missed it though. Mentally I'm doing OK. So the jobs report has come and gone. We've got the Fed next Tuesday with the announcement on interest rates. The volume here is slow. It is hard for me to believe in this move higher having any staying power. I cannot fight the market though. 2 weeks to go for the August option cycle. I do not think I'll have any trades for the August options. But you never know. It's Friday afternoon in the summer. Time to forget about the markets for a while and relax.

The Dow traded in negative territory all day and closed with a loss of 5 points. Advance/declines were negative and the volume was light as usual. Today was a waiting game for tomorrows employment report. We are overbought but that doesn't mean that we can't stay there. I'm undecided about what to do here so I'm remaining on the sidelines as far as the OEX is concerned. Perhaps next week or later in the month. Gold was up $3 and the XAU was little changed. ABX and GG were little changed as well, while NEM rose 3/8. Volume was extremely light here as well. The dollar just hung around today as well. If we get a pullback in the gold shares, I'll try the September ABX calls. Otherwise it is too late for now in my opinion. So it's time to be patient. Mentally I'm feeling OK. So we'll digest the employment report and go from there. 2 weeks and a day left on the August option cycle. I don't anticipate any trades for me in the August cycle but we'll see how things develop. Volume is very light and that is a problem discerning what is really going on. But that won't stop me from making a trade if a decent signal appears. However there is nothing wrong with sitting things out for now.

The Dow gained 44 points on light volume. Advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive. Summation index continuing higher. Employment report on Friday. I'm thinking about getting some OEX puts tomorrow. We are just above the 200 day moving average line on the S&P 500 and stalling. If we break out to the upside there will be a lot of room to go. However if we fail here, it's possible that a top has been put in. That said I will ponder this idea tonight. Breadth has been very good on this uptrend but the volume hasn't. Gold had a good day, up almost $10 on the futures. The XAU rose 3 2/3. ABX and GG were both up over a buck, while NEM gained 3/4. Volume was light here as well. ABX has shown good relative strength here. If I do try the gold share calls, ABX will be the choice. The dollar was stronger today but gold rose anyway. The dollar/gold relationship has not made much sense lately. This could just be light volume summer gyrations of no consequence. I don't know. Mentally I'm feeling good, slept well. So I'm thinking of putting on a trade but I'm not quite sold on exactly what to do here. I will need to make sure that I'm not trading just to do something. That I'm not trading out of boredom or just for the sake of making a trade. I'll go over things tonight and come up with a plan for tomorrow. Perhaps remaining on the sidelines will be the best course of action after all.

The Dow lost 38 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were negative. The market is digesting yesterdays big gain before the next move. The employment report is out on Friday and that should be the next major catalyst. We are still hovering just above the 200 day moving average on the S&P 500. I'm still on the sidelines regarding the August OEX options. Gold was up a couple bucks today and the XAU closed flat. ABX was up 3/8, while GG and NEM had fractional losses. Volume was light here as well. The dollar continued lower and gold cannot rally. I'm not sure exactly what is going on with that relationship lately. I still may try the September gold share calls though. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK, could have slept better. So it's the beginning of August and we continue in a positive mode for stock prices. As I said yesterday the question is how long can it last? I'll try and remain patient for now. As for the gold shares, we are in the seasonal strength period for gold. That doesn't mean that higher prices are in the offing but it should help the bullish cause there going forward. The volume has been very light for the gold complex and that makes me hesitate to put on a trade here at the moment. Summer doldrums for now in gold. We'll see what happens Wednesday.

August started with a bang as the Dow rose 208 points albeit on light volume. Advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. The summation index remains in a steady uptrend. The short term oversold condition was worked off and the rally resumed. How much longer will it go is the question. I certainly don't have the answer. I'm still looking to get some OEX puts for September when I feel the time is right. The S&P 500 just broke through its 200 day moving average. I'm going to try and remain patient. I will take time for a decent top to be put in when and if that formation does occur. Gold was little changed on the day as was the XAU, which gained 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume. The dollar was again pretty weak today but it isn't helping the price of gold. There's a disconnect going on there. Other commodities rallied but the precious metal just didn't do much. I'm still looking at the September gold share calls though. We are oversold on a daily basis and getting there on a weekly time frame as well. The Gold/XAU buy signal isn't in effect as yet. Plus the volume has been pitiful, indicating not much interest at the moment. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. 3 weeks in the August option cycle and I don't have anything that stands out trading wise at this time. It may be best to just wait things out until the summer is over. That won't be easy to do but it could be the prudent course of action.

We started the day down over 100 points, came back into positive territory during the last hour and closed the day off a point. Advance/declines were positive and the volume was summer Friday low. GDP was a bit less than expected but the market shrugged it off. The indices have the feel of wanting to go higher. Summation index remains to the upside. We'll see what happens next week. Gold had a good day, up $12. The XAU gained 2 1/8. ABX up 1/2, GG up 3/8 and NEM up 1/4. Volume was very light again. The technicals are moving up on the gold shares but the volume is lacking. I still may try the September calls. We are back to almost having a buy signal on the Gold/XAU ratio. The dollar didn't do much today. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The markets did move around a lot today but they had a lackluster attitude about it. It's a summertime market here to be sure. That's why the trading could be tougher than usual, volatility wise. There's no rush to do anything really. So I'm going to wait for a decent set up, hopefully. I'm still leaning towards waiting for the expected decline in autumn. But who knows? It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

An up and down type of day as the Dow closed with a loss of 30 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. End of the month tomorrow. Summation index still heading higher. I'm trying to remain patient here as I think we still may have some room to go on the upside. GDP report tomorrow as well. Gold was up $8 today and the XAU rose 3/4. ABX had good earnings but only went up 1/2. GG was flat on the earnings news and NEM gained 1/3. Volume was light. If good earnings can't move the gold shares, then what will? No interest there but I'm still going to look at the September calls as a seasonality play. The dollar was weaker today which helped the metal but not the mining shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. 3 weeks to go in the August option cycle, so there is plenty of time to consider something. We are working off the overbought condition of the stock market. I think that we could head higher when that is complete. The gold shares are oversold on the technicals but not doing much despite that. I'll remain on the sidelines for now and we'll see what happens tomorrow.

The Dow lost 40 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. Once again the overall market was weaker than the Dow. We are are stalling at the 200 day moving average on the S&P 500. I do think that we will get through there in the near term. But I could be wrong. The summation index continues higher. GDP and the end of the month on Friday. So we'll see. I have no OEX trades in mind at the moment. Gold was up a touch on the futures and the XAU gained 1/2. ABX and GG were flat on the day. NEM reported disappointing earnings and dropped 3/8. Volume was nothing special for the gold shares. I did place an overnight order for the ABX September calls but it wasn't filled and I canceled it before tomorrows earnings announcement. I may try them again later. We are oversold on the daily chart and just about there on the weekly as well. We're also near the seasonally strong period of August and September for gold. So a gold share trade may be in order shortly. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. As much as I'd like to have some ABX calls before the earnings come out, I did not feel comfortable taking the risk. This is probably a byproduct of the lousy trading year so far. Also a factor is my prognosis for lower equity prices down the road in a few weeks which would affect the gold shares as well if indeed we see weakness. So it's the sidelines for now.

The Dow edged higher today by 12 points on average volume. Advance/declines were negative. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. We are due for some type of pullback here to relieve the current overbought condition. A lot of time left in the August option cycle. I'm not looking to get short here. I will wait for that sometime next month if all goes as planned. Which it rarely does. Gold broke down today, off $25. The XAU fell 5 1/2. ABX lost 1 3/4, GG dropped 1 1/2 and NEM was minus 2 1/3. Volume was heavy to the downside. ABX broke through its 200 day moving average line. Yes, I am still thinking about getting some ABX calls but I think that I'll go out to the September contract if I do anything. Plenty of gold share earnings in the next 2 days. We are oversold now. Almost a a buy signal on the Gold/XAU ratio as well. So perhaps now is the time for some calls. But it's risky and we have just broken out of a support zone in gold itself. We'll see how it goes tomorrow. The dollar is also due for a possible bounce here as there is a positive divergence on the RSI indicator. That would not be a positive for gold. The flight to safety trade is over for now. Mentally I'm doing OK. Remaining patient for now with regards to the overall stock market and the OEX. Might try an ABX trade Wednesday. It's a tough call after todays action and the looming earnings announcement. So we'll see.

We continue higher as the summer rally lives on. The Dow gained 100 points on light volume. Advance/declines were over 3 to 1 positive. The summation index remains in an uptrend. We're overbought and I'd expect some brief downside at some point this week. However we have broken above 1100 on the S&P 500 and the downtrend line from the end of April has been broken to the upside. I think the rally could have more steam than originally anticipated. I am not going to chase it here. Gold was down about $5 on the futures and the XAU lost 1 1/2. ABX fell 5/8, GG dropped 3/8 and NEM lost a buck. Volume was light. Earnings for NEM and GG on Wednesday, with ABX reporting Thursday. I canceled my ABX August call order. The technicals look like they are about to roll over to the downside. The dollar fell today and gold itself could not rally. I can't say that I know what will happen here but I'm taking the risk off the table. I could change my mind tomorrow if ABX were to fall to it's 200 day moving average. But that remains to be seen. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The end of the month is coming up on Friday. We'll see if that skews things. There is some data coming out this week, including the first look at 2nd quarter GDP. So the summer doldrums that I expected haven't materialized in the stock market.

We closed the week on a positive note as the Dow gained 102 points on light volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. We got the results from Europe's "stress" tests of their banks. The only stress it caused was if you were short the market. I'll stick to the technicals. We're short term overbought but that doesn't mean that we can't stay there. Summation index still heading higher. GE increased its dividend and went higher which could be a precursor for the overall market. Perhaps playing this summer rally was the thing to do. I'm still going to wait and get short eventually. Gold fell $7 but the XAU rose a point. ABX, GG and NEM all had slight fractional moves to the upside on light volume. I adjusted down my August ABX call order but I'm thinking I may just cancel it. We are midway between overbought and oversold. There is no buy signal from the Gold/XAU ratio. The volume has been anemic lately. Earnings are due next week for the gold shares. That should be a catalyst but who knows? Again, I'll have to sort things out over the weekend. I think the July gold futures contract expires next week as well. Mentally I'm feeling good. We're right at the 1100 level on the S&P 500 and it looks like we could break through. That would propel us higher. The light volume would work in my favor for the case of shorting this market sometime next month. So we'll see. Gold isn't doing much and neither are the gold shares. That could change but I'm really going to have to consider passing on that ABX trade as well. Things to ponder. But right now it's Friday afternoon in the summertime. Time for a rest.

Right on back to the upside as the Dow gained 201 points on average volume. Advance/declines were about 6 to 1 positive. The summation index continues higher and that portends higher prices. Yesterdays decline can be chalked up to Bernanke. So we'll see if we can get above 1100 on the S&P 500 and go from there. I'm still going to wait for the OEX puts for September or October. That's the game plan for now. Gold was up $3 on the futures, while the XAU gained 3 2/3. ABX and GG were both up about 1/2. NEM was higher by 7/8. Volume was light as it has been. I don't know how much longer that I'll leave in the ABX August call order. The slight recent rise has been on very light volume. We are moving up from oversold on the technicals. So we'll see. I still expect the earnings next week to be good. The dollar took a big hit today and gold didn't rally that much. That's another warning sign about getting long the gold shares here in my opinion. It could just be a summer sideways pattern in the gold shares for a while. So I will have to think about this trade overnight. Mentally I'm feeling good. The stock market has had more movement than I expected so far this summer. We'll have to see if that continues. My scenario remains the same and patience is necessary. I'm trying my best to wait things out. So far, so good.

The Dow lost 109 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The market moved lower on Bernankes blabbering. That's about the only reason I can find. That doesn't mean we can't just go lower here. However the summation index remains to the upside. I'm still thinking sideways to higher for a while but I could be wrong. Gold was flat on the futures and down in the aftermarket. ABX and GG had fractional losses, while NEM fell 7/8. Volume was light as it has been lately and probably will be this summer. The XAU dropped 1/3. I'm still leaving in the open order for the August ABX calls. If it isn't filled before the earnings announcement, I'll cancel it. Mentally I'm tired today and it has been a long day. More of the same tomorrow. We'll see if there is any follow through to todays negative action.

Sold off early today over 100 points and came all the way back to finish the day up 75. Advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive and the volume was average. Bullish action to be sure. It is looking more like Friday was an aberration for now but there's still 3 days left in the week. I'm going to let the market run here and focus on getting short when this rally concludes. It will take some patience but I'm hopefully up to the challenge. My forward market projection still calls for weakness in late summer, early autumn. Gold was up $10 today, erasing yesterdays loss. The XAU rose 3 7/8. ABX and GG gained 2/3, while NEM was up a buck. Volume was light. I'm leaving in the open order for the ABX calls. Hopefully we'll build a bottom here and then rise on the earnings news next week. If not we could just head up from here and I'll cancel the order. The dollar was slightly higher today. Mentally I'm a bit tired but not bad. Bernanke is speaking this week and that always has the potential to be a market mover. The housing data out today was viewed as mixed. Summation index moving higher and that implies that the trend will be up. I have an appointment tomorrow and on Thursday, so the posting for the blog will be later in the evening.

The Dow gained 56 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. The question is whether Fridays negative action was simply option related or not. The summation index continues higher. I'm inclined to think that we will slowly move upwards or create a trading range before heading lower later in the summer or at the beginning of autumn. But that's a guess. Gold lost $6 today and the XAU fell a couple of points. ABX off 1/2, GG fell 3/8 and NEM lost 7/8. All were lower earlier. Volume was better than it has been. Oversold on the gold shares and I placed an order for some ABX August calls. I'll be leaving it in overnight. Not exactly sure this is the most prudent thing to do but the Gold/XAU ratio is in the buy zone and the shares are oversold technically. So if there was a time to try the calls, now is it. We'll see what happens. The dollar didn't do much today. Mentally I'm feeling OK. We'll have to see if the market can regain its footing this week after last Fridays debacle. It is summer and as I've said before things can slow down. I'm willing to give the gold shares a try here because the earnings will be out next week as well. But they could sell off on good news too. There are never any easy trades in the game. Not a lot of data out this week, mostly housing numbers and I can't expect them to be anything bullish. So we'll see.

It was a sell off expiration as the Dow dropped 261 points. Now that's what I had been looking for a bit earlier this week. Volume was a little higher than lately. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 negative. So now the question will be is this decline the start of something bigger or simply a one day wonder? I have no answers at the moment. I can say the technicals will be oversold in a hurry. I also think after today things will slow down but I could be wrong. Gold lost $20 on the futures but came back a bit in the aftermarket. The XAU lost 5 2/3. ABX dropped 1 1/4, GG fell 1 1/8 and NEM lost 1 3/4. Volume was light. The dollar ended the day with little change. The gold share charts look negative but the Gold/XAU ratio is back on a buy signal. Earnings are coming out in a week and a half. Perhaps this will be the next trade. Mentally I'm feeling good, slept well. The August option cycle has an extra week so the premiums are high. I'll have to look things over again this weekend. Volume has slowed and the best course of action could very well be to do nothing. Trading earnings alone is never a good strategy. Plenty to think about over the weekend. It's a Friday afternoon in the summer. Time for a break.

We were lower for most of the day and down over 100 at one point but the Dow came back to close with just a loss of 7 points. Advance/declines were about even and the volume was average. Summation index heading higher. Still overbought and it looks like the positive expiration bias remains in effect. You could have bought the OEX puts yesterday and sold them early today for a profit. But I'm more interested in sustained moves. We are getting a summer rally and I'll have to wait for its conclusion. Gold didn't do much today and the XAU lost 3/4. ABX and GG had fractional moves both ways, while NEM lost a buck. Volume was light. The dollar got clobbered today and gold did not react. The flight to safety trade in the dollar is being taken off. I'm still thinking about the ABX August calls for the earnings announcement in a week and a half. However my confidence is shot at the moment. That said, ABX is in oversold territory. Things to ponder going forward. Mentally I'm doing OK. So it looks like we are putting in back to back decent weeks in the stock market. I have some levels that I'm waiting for and then I am going to purchase some OEX puts for September or October. That's the game plan for now. It's summertime and I expect the doldrums to appear shortly.

An up and down session as the Dow ended the day basically flat, with a gain of 3 points on summer average volume. Advance/declines were slightly negative. Good news from Intel led the way but it wasn't enough for a sustained rally. Still overbought here as the market seems to be holding up for the expiration on Friday. I canceled the OEX put trade with only a couple of days left in the July cycle but there's still a chance that I may try tomorrow. Very risky though. Gold dropped around $5 and the XAU was off 1/4. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional moves on light volume. The dollar was a bit weaker today. Gold share earnings are due in a couple of weeks. I was going to play the ABX calls on this news but now I'm not so sure. The technicals are oversold here on a daily basis. However there doesn't seem to be any conviction in the gold market here as we simply move sideways. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. It is summertime in the markets. I really think that we are going to slow down even more as we continue into August. I could be wrong. If I don't try this OEX put trade then I'll be on the sidelines for a while I presume. I may simply wait to try the puts in autumn. So we'll see. There's 5 weeks in the August option cycle, which means that there is no hurry to do anything.

The market took off to the upside today as the Dow gained 146 points. Advance/declines were 6 to 1 positive and the volume was average. The strong open blew through my stop order and I had to take a bigger loss than anticipated. About 80% on that OEX put trade as I'm starting off the 2nd half of the year right where I left off the first half. Overbought and staying there but I'm still a believer that this rally isn't for real. 3 days left for the July option cycle. I am leaving in another open order for OEX puts and moving to a higher strike price. It's risky to be sure but the short term sell signal is in place. We'll see. Gold had a good day as the dollar was weaker. The precious metal gained about $15 on the futures. The XAU only rose 1/3 after being higher early. ABX, GG and NEM were mixed with fractional moves after being higher early as well. Volume was light to average. It looks like the flight to safety trade is still being unwound here in the gold shares. I will try them again at some point this summer. That's my thinking at the moment. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well. Another trade and another loser as this year is like a broken record. Plenty of time left, however it may be time to take a break and wait for the anticipated drop in autumn. I'll wait and see if this next OEX trade gets filled tomorrow. Perhaps I'll simply cancel it but there will be some downside at some point by Friday.

Not much movement for a typical summer Monday as the Dow gained 18 points today. Advance/declines were negative and the volume was light. My OEX puts almost got stopped out today and probably will be tomorrow. 10 points out of the money and 4 days to go. Not really enough time for this trade to work. We're short term overbought now. However it looks like the positive expiration week bias is in effect for now. I still might roll up to a closer strike price on the OEX towards the end of the week if we continue higher. We'll see. Gold lost $10 today and the XAU fell 1 1/3. ABX, GG and NEM held up rather well with fractional moves one way or the other. Volume pretty light here as well. The dollar was higher on the day. I'm still interested in the August ABX calls if we get some weakness in ABX. Mentally I'm feeling OK. So unless we get a downside open tomorrow, this OEX trade will be dead. The timing wasn't right, again. I may sit things out for a while since it's summer and things really seem to be slowing down. No data out until Wednesday with retail sales. So we'll see what happens tomorrow.

It was a good week for the bulls as we had another up day on Friday. The Dow closed higher by 59 points on summer light volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. My order for the OEX puts was filled. It's already in the red as the timing was a bit early. However light volume rallies are not to be trusted, so we'll see how it goes. We are at the resistance level that I had in mind , so some type of pullback is expected in my estimation. But I could be wrong. Perhaps we'll just continue higher for option expiration week. The stop loss order is in. Gold had a good day, up $14. The XAU rose 4 1/4. ABX and GG were up a buck and NEM tacked on 1 1/2. The volume was light however and these issues were higher earlier. I still may try the August ABX calls before the earnings announcement at the end of this month. I'll have to ponder this over the weekend. The dollar was up a touch today and hasn't been moving much in the past few days. Mentally I'm feeling OK. So we're a bit overbought now and the Dow is at its down trend line from the beginning of May. Grounds for a pullback in my opinion. But anything can and will happen. The summation index has turned around and is moving to the upside. So there are some crosscurrents out there. I don't see any major events moving gold one way or the other in the near term as well. We could enter the summer doldrums period, which would not help the OEX put trade. Volatility has disappeared this week as well. So we'll see what happens over the weekend and take it from there. It's summertime, Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

The Dow continued higher today, up 120 points. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index should be turning higher. The market opened higher, traded lower later in the day and then came back in the final hour. Perhaps the decline has ended. However I still have an open order for the OEX July puts. We're not overbought yet but getting there. The S&P 500 is 5 points away from what I consider resistance at 1075. So we'll see what happens tomorrow. Gold lost $3 today and the XAU shed 2 1/4. ABX was down over a buck and a quarter on good volume. GG dropped 34 and NEM was actually up 1/3. Both on light volume. I canceled the open order for ABX August calls. I still may do that trade but not right now. Mentally I'm very tired at the moment. I'm going to check on a few more things here tonight and then determine if I still want to try the OEX puts. It's been a long day and I need some rest.

Today we got the long awaited oversold bounce as the Dow gained 275 points. Advance/declines were over 5 to 1 positive and the volume was average. So now what? That is the question. I put in an order for some OEX puts which I will leave in overnight. I think we can go a bit higher here in the near term but I do not expect some type of straight up rally. As usual I could be wrong. We are at 1060 on the S&P 500 and I think there's a lid at 1075. We'll see. In downtrends you get these one day short covering rallies that then peter out. Time will tell. Gold came back today too, up $4 on the futures and a bit more in the aftermarket. The XAU gained 4 3/4. ABX and GG were both up around 3/4 or so and NEM led the way by 1 1/4. Volume was light. The dollar lost a touch. ABX is bouncing off of it's daily trend line that has held since February. I still have an order in for the August ABX calls but it won't be filled if we rally from here. I'll have to reconsider this idea tonight. Perhaps now is the time to just purchase some August gold share calls. We are in a seasonal weak period for gold though. However I expect the earnings to be good at the end of this month for ABX. Things to ponder. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. So where do we go from here? Could the market be sold out right now? Always plenty of questions with no clear answers in this game. Will the summation index turn around here? I'm still a believer that this rally today won't last long. Another possibility is that we enter a sideways light volume summer doldrums period. That scenario will not be conducive to outright option positions. So there's a lot to think about tonight. Tomorrows blog will be later in the day as I am taking a half day off to get out of town for a while.

We got somewhat of a bounce today as the Dow gained 57 points. Advance/declines were positive and the volume was average. We gapped higher at the open and were up 170 points early. Gave it all back and then some but rallied into the close. So the volatility remains. I'm still considering the July OEX puts if we get some upside. But things remain uncertain. We're still oversold and haven't relieved that condition. So we'll see what happens. Not a lot of data out this week and it is summer. Gold dropped around $15 today and the XAU fell 1 1/3. ABX GG and NEM all had fractional losses on summertime average volume. GG led the way. I still have the August ABX call order in but we are right at the multi week uptrend line and if that is broken I may have to cancel. We are oversold on the gold shares though and the Gold/XAU ratio is in the buy zone. However the dollar was weaker today as well and that may mean that the flight to safety trade is being unwound. That's a guess as usual. Mentally I'm feeling OK after the long holiday weekend. 8 days remain in the July option cycle. Nothing imminent on the radar at the moment. It won't hurt to be patient here either. So I'll stay on the sidelines and see what the market brings.

The market tried to get into positive territory but failed at the close. The Dow lost 46 points on light volume. Advance/declines were negative. The jobs report was weak and that was expected. The market is so oversold it is hard to believe that it hasn't yet rallied hard for a day or crashed. The technicals are not acting as they should. The prudent thing to do would be to step aside in my opinion. I'm on the sidelines as far as the indices go but that will change. I'd like to short any bounce we get but then, so does everyone else. Gold was up a touch on the futures and in the aftermarket. The XAU was flat. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other on light volume. I'm leaving in my August ABX call ticket. I'll rethink things over the weekend. The dollar was lower today. I think that the gold earnings will be stellar at the end of this month and would like to be long something by then. But that's a guess and subject to change of course. Mentally I'm tired, did not sleep well. So it was a down week to be sure and we are still oversold. Hard to figure out why there hasn't been some kind of bounce. If the market is really that weak, I would expect a violent down day. Hasn't happened. So on we go. Volatility has decreased in the past couple of days but we are still moving lower. That's another puzzle to try and figure out. Long holiday weekend and a short 4 day week coming up. 9 days left for the July options. I'm leaning towards the OEX puts if we ever get a bounce. But it's risky. There has to be some massive short covering at some point doesn't there? Who knows? Maybe we will simply grind down all the way to the July expiration. At any rate, there is a lot to think about for the next 3 days. But for now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The market tried to have a positive day but it was not to be as the Dow lost 41 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were negative. We are very oversold here and really due for some type of short-covering bounce. But we've been oversold for a while. The Dow was down 150 at one point. We've got the employment report tomorrow ahead of a long weekend. Anything can happen. We are in a down trend. Rallies will be sold. Gold got clobbered today, down about $40 on the futures. The XAU fell 7 3/4. ABX, GG and NEM all were over 2 point losers on good volume. I canceled the ABX July call order. I placed another order for ABX calls going out to August. I'm not sure if today was a one day wonder for gold or the start of something bigger. The dollar got clobbered as well so the flight to safety trade was taken off in a big way. Perhaps the markets here sense a rally about to happen for the indices. Hard to believe that though. Maybe traders were trying to lock in some 2nd half of the year profits on the first day. It's all a guess but you cannot ignore the price action. Mentally I'm feeling fine, slept well. The summation index continues lower, we are in dangerous territory and the market cannot seem to get even one day of rally. Interesting times indeed. Who knows what tomorrows employment numbers will look like? I'm on the sidelines as far as the stock indices are concerned for the moment. So we'll see what tomorrow brings.

A weak attempt at a bounce and then the Dow lost 96 points to close out the month of June. Volume was average and the advance/declines were negative. Summation index heading lower, oversold and staying there. This is a dangerous market right now. We are possibly going to go through the zero line on the summation index. We haven't even had a short covering rally. I think that you can by puts on a bounce when we get one. But what do I know? Gold was up $3 today and the XAU was flat. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on light to average volume. The gold shares are showing good relative strength. Almost at a buy signal for the Gold/XAU ratio. I placed an order for some July ABX calls in case we have a big drop in the markets in the next couple of days. However getting long anything is very risky in this market at the moment. So we'll see what happens. The dollar was a bit lower today as the flight to quality trade took a day off. Mentally I'm feeling somewhat tired, did not feel well last night. I closed out the first half of the year on a down note and that was the story generally for 2010 so far. Plenty of time left in the year to turn things around. All eyes are waiting for the employment report on Friday. Perhaps we'll get a short covering rally in the next couple of days. If we don't, it could get very ugly and fast.

Oversold and staying there as the Dow lost 268 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 8 to 1 negative. We never got the bounce that was overdue and I dumped the OEX calls for about an 80% loss. The summation index is now heading lower and the market could easily fall apart here. The bellwethers have already broken down and the S&P 500 should take out 1040 and head lower. That doesn't mean that we won't bounce tomorrow because we are so oversold. It does mean that we are headed lower and caution is advised. I thought we would move sideways into the July expiration but I was wrong again. 9800 is the key level for the Dow. Once we break that, we are heading much lower. GE lost 1/2 on heavy volume. No trades there. Gold held up rather well and gained $3. The XAU followed the overall market and was down over 5. ABX lost a buck or so, GG down 1 1/2, with NEM off 1/3. Volume was average. I guess I'm going to look at the gold shares here again. The dollar was stronger today and it could be that the safe haven plays come back in vogue for the July expiration cycle. The Gold/XAU ratio is almost back to a buy signal. I'll look things over tonight. Mentally I'm doing OK, could have slept better. So I closed out another loss for the 1st half of the year, which doesn't help my confidence going forward. But it will be forgotten because the markets don't care. I think that we are in a precarious position and I would not be surprised by anything at this point. When the markets don't act as they should technically, we're in for something. The best course of action here could just be to step aside. That's a possibility. End of the month tomorrow and the employment report on Friday ahead of a long holiday weekend. It will be interesting to say the least.

We still can't generate a rally as the Dow lost 5 points today. Advance/declines were negative and the volume was light. My OEX calls are in the red and staying there. I really expect a big upside day tomorrow. If we don't get one, I really will be confused. But that is nothing new. The market is oversold both short and medium term. It should have showed some type of upside by now. So we'll see. I don't think that the OEX calls will be coming back into the black. GE barely moved on light volume. Nothing doing there. Gold took a hit, off $17. The XAU dropped 2 points. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on what looks like average volume. The dollar was stronger today. No gold share trades for now. Overbought and staying there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. 2 days left for the month of June. The market seems extremely weak here and the weekly candlestick charts are bearish. If we get a pop to the upside I will dump the OEX calls and perhaps try the OEX puts again before Fridays employment report. Or not. We should see some decent upside in the indices tomorrow. Stay tuned.

The Dow lost 9 points today as we continue to remain oversold. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive and the volume was good. Hard to figure what is going on here because we should have had a decent upside day by now. My OEX calls are solidly in the red and it looks like this will be a cut the loss trade. The bellwethers on GE, INTC and MSFT all continued lower today on good volume. The OEX will not get any upside traction with action like that. Gold was higher today by $10 and the XAU rose 6 1/2 points. ABX was up 1 3/4, GG up 1 1/4 and NEM up 2 3/4. Volume was average. Money continues to flow into the gold shares. Perhaps I should have been looking here. Overbought now so getting the July calls is risky. But you cannot ignore that there are buyers for gold, even at record levels. I will have to ponder this over the weekend. Mentally I'm feeling good, slept well. So we're oversold and not getting a bounce. What does that mean going forward? That is the question. I do feel that we will get some real upside in the next couple of days. Technically that has to happen. If it doesn't we could be in for some real trouble. We might be in trouble anyway, down the road. End of the month coming up in the middle of next week. The employment report comes out on Friday before a long weekend. So there will be plenty to ponder over the next couple of days. It's time for a break.

Oversold and staying there as the Dow lost 145 points today. Advance/declines were over 3 to 1 negative and the volume was average. The OEX calls I have are in the red. Todays developments have me questioning whether or not this trade will work. The summation index will be turning back down after todays action. Perhaps just sticking with the puts is the proper course of action. I expect some type of bounce here but now I suspect it will not be a sustained move higher. So we'll see. GE lost more ground today on increased volume. No time for buying calls there now. They are certainly cheap but maybe headed to zero. Gold was up over $10 today but the XAU fell 1 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM were all off fractionally after being higher early. Volume was light. The dollar didn't do much today. No solid idea of what to do here with respect to the gold shares except stay on the sidelines. Mentally I'm feeling good, slept well. So I'm in a trade that doesn't look good now but there is plenty of time and we are oversold. I originally wanted to hold it for 4 days and I'm going to stick with that. However the market isn't acting well here and that must be taken into consideration going forward. Volatility has picked up which will help keep the option premiums juiced. We'll see how we close out the week.

A day of indecision as the Dow gained 5 points on light to average volume. Advance/declines were about even. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. The Fed announcement came and went with no surprises. We were up over 50 and down over 50. I sold the OEX puts for about a 50% profit. We are now back to short term oversold. I bought some July OEX calls as I expect some upside for the next 4 days. So it's out of one trade and into another this time around. The calls usually take longer to develop a profit unless we see a dramatic move to the upside. I don't expect that. GE was down again on heavier volume and that is worrisome. The July GE calls are cheap now but I decided to go with the OEX. That could change tomorrow. Gold was down $6 but the XAU was up 1/2. The gold issues were mixed, with ABX flat, GG up 3/4 and NEM off 3/8. Volume was light. The gold shares did mount somewhat of a comeback from earlier in the day. The dollar was weaker today. I don't have any gold trades in mind at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling tired, haven't slept enough the past couple of days. That will change tonight. Feeling good about the trade closed out today, finally did something right for a change. But that trade is over and now my attention will be on the OEX July calls. The fact that the market sold off today and did not close on it's low could be a positive going forward. The transports held up after falling early as well. So we'll see what happens tomorrow.

To the downside as the Dow lost 149 points today. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative and the volume was average. My OEX puts are in the black but we are now short term oversold. I did not sell them today because the down trend was strong. Also the transports were really weak and can be a harbinger of things to come. But I should dump them tomorrow if my brain is working. We have the Fed announcement on interest rates tomorrow. I don't expect anything new there and neither does anyone else. GE lost 30 cents today on light volume. Not exactly sure I want to try the calls there now. The daily chart doesn't look bullish. Gold was flat today but the XAU followed the overall market lower, down 1 7/8. ABX and NEM were flat, while GG lost 3/8. Volume was light. The dollar didn't do much today. Mentally I'm a little tired, did not sleep enough. So we've seen some weakness and the OEX puts are showing a profit. Monday morning would have been the correct time to purchase them but that is hindsight. However it does remind you that overnight risk cannot be taken lightly. In that case it was over the weekend risk. However I have to go from here. The puts should be sold tomorrow and then we'll see where we go from there.

A one day reversal to the downside as the Dow was up around 140 points early but ended the day with a loss of 8 points. Advance/declines were negative and the volume was light to average. I still have the OEX puts that I bought on Friday. If we would have opened lower I would have dumped them but that was not the case. I should get rid of them tomorrow on any weakness. I don't think that this is the beginning of a sustained down move but what do I know? The overall market was weaker than the Dow. The OEX puts are about break even. Today would have been the ideal purchase date. GE was up fractionally on light volume. I still may try the July calls there if the price drops to my level. We'll see about that. Gold fell $17 and even more in the aftermarket. The XAU dropped 4 points. ABX and GG were down about 1 1/2, while NEM lost 1 3/4. Volume was average. Is this time to try the gold shares? Not after todays action. Perhaps if we make it back to the rising daily trend line on the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Volatility returned today but I have to wonder, is it just a one day affair? Could be, because we will move to short term oversold tomorrow with a simply flat market. However the action today was bearish. But this also could have just been a reaction to the expiration on Friday. So as usual there are lots of questions without a lot of solid answers. I should sell the OEX puts tomorrow unless we completely collapse and I doubt that is in the cards.

We ended the week on a whimper as the Dow gained 16 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. Overbought now and I got some OEX July puts today for what I believe to be a 2 day trade. In on Friday and out on Monday if all goes according to plan. The puts are right where I bought them. I expect weakness Monday. So we'll see what happens. I canceled the GE call trade because I did not want to hold it over the weekend. Might try it again next week. GE was flat today on light volume. Gold broke out to new highs today, up $10. The XAU rose 3 1/3. ABX and NEM both gained 1 1/2 on good volume. GG was up a buck on light volume. NEM has been the leader and is breaking out to the upside. I need to find a way to get long the gold shares. I may have to wait for a pullback to the breakout line though. It is dangerous to chase moves. The gold shares had a great move this week considering it was expiration week. A lot of money was made. Perhaps that will happen again in the future. I'd like to be on board when it does. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. So I've got the OEX puts for July and I expect to sell them on Monday for a profit. Volatility has slowed down so far in June and that could be the case going forward for the summer. It happens and is known as the summer doldrums. We'll see. It's Friday afternoon and time for some rest. I'll check the charts over the weekend and go from there. The summation index continues higher, so the trend is up. That is why this OEX put trade has got to be short term.

We were lower for most of the day but a late last half hour rally carried the Dow to a gain of 24 points on average volume. Advance/declines were slightly negative. I continued to have an order in for some OEX puts but it looks like it won't be filled. There's only one day left for the June options as it is. If I could get the price I wanted, I would do it. But it is not going to happen. We should be lower tomorrow or Monday. Short term overbought here. GE was up a few cents and I'm leaving in the July call order there. Volume was light. I'll need to have a pullback there for that trade to be filled. Gold is the place to be this week as it gained almost $20 on the day. The XAU rose 3 2/3. ABX gained 1 2/3, GG about a buck and NEM 1 1/3. Volume was average but a bit heavier in NEM. The dollar was lower today. NEM is leading the way higher here and looks to break out above $60. ABX did meet it's rising uptrend line from February earlier this week. That was the time to try the calls. I was instead focused on the OEX. Perhaps gold is ready to break out to new highs here. I'll have to consider this scenario going forward. Mentally I'm a bit frustrated. Timing a day off, watching the wrong index, a losing trade during the week. There are many opportunities in the markets but doing the right thing at the right time eludes me once again. The money to be made is out there. Doing what is necessary to be successful isn't impossible. It hasn't been a good first half of the year trading for me. I'll have to improve over the next 6 months.

It was an up and down day as the Dow gained 4 points on average volume. Advance/declines were negative. 2 days left in the June option cycle and I'm leaving in an open order for some OEX puts. It's a risky trade with 2 days left but I do think that there will be some decent downside before Fridays expiration. If we get some upside early tomorrow there is a chance the order will be filled. Of course I could be wrong and this will just be another losing trade. We'll see. GE was up a few cents on average volume. I'm still leaving in the open order there for the July calls. Gold lost a few bucks today but the XAU was up 1 3/4. NEM led the way with a 2 dollar gain on good volume. ABX and GG were up fractionally on light volume. The dollar didn't do much today. The gold shares are looking overbought to me here but that doesn't mean that they can't stay that way for a while. I'm not planning any trades here in the near term but that could change. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well enough. Yesterdays losing trade is in the rear view mirror and I'll see if this next OEX trade will work. With 2 days left I do wonder if it is even worth the risk? That is something that I will ponder tonight. Perhaps I'll simply cancel the order tomorrow morning and look for greener pastures elsewhere. The trend is now up and July calls look to be the best play going forward post expiration.

The Dow exploded to the upside today as it gained 214 points on average volume. Advance/declines were over 5 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving higher. I tried the OEX puts halfway through the day. Yes, it was a loser and I dumped them in the final hour. It was a 40% loss but not a lot of money involved, thankfully. The risk is high in the last week of the options as I have said. I was simply wrong on the timing and got out. I still believe that there will be a decent downside day this week. With that thought in mind I am leaving in an overnight order for some OEX puts again. We are short term overbought. GE was up about 40 cents on light volume. I'm leaving in the open order for the GE July calls. Gold was higher by $10 and the XAU gained 4 1/3. ABX and GG were up almost a buck, while NEM rose 1 1/3. Volume was light. The dollar was weaker today as the flight to safety there is taking a break. The daily uptrend line for ABX has held once again. That looks like the trade that should have been done. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not feel well this morning. So I tried the OEX puts today when I shouldn't have and I'm going to try them again. The summation index is heading higher so the path of least resistance is actually higher according to this indicator. Maybe I'm just wrong in my assessment of Junes expiration week. Perhaps just waiting on the GE trade to be filled is the better course of action. I'll consider these things tonight and take it from there.

We opened higher and closed lower, which usually isn't a bullish sign. The Dow lost 20 points on light volume. The advance/declines were solidly positive though. Today looks like it was the day to try the OEX puts. I did not get any. We broke through the daily downtrend line on some indices but the volume was light. I still might try the OEX puts if things line up to do it later this week. However with only 4 days in the June option cycle the risk will be very high. I still have an open order in for the GE July calls. GE was down a bit today on light volume. My thinking here is that we will build a small base and that process is happening now. From there we will rally and then I can dump the calls at a profit. Could be wishful thinking as well. Gold lost $5 today and the XAU fell 2 2/3. ABX, GG and NEM all fell over a buck on light volume. ABX is at it's rising trend line and it's 50-day moving average. It's possible that the line will hold and the June calls can be bought here for a quick trade. It's also possible that the rising trend line will be broken and the rally from February is over. But we are at the moment of truth. Still a buy signal on the Gold/XAU ratio. So I'll have to think about that one tonight as well. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well. It's expiration week and I do have a couple of ideas. Might be too late for the OEX puts though. The safer trade to do would be to go out to July with the GE call trade. So we'll see. Time will be compressed with just 4 days to go here in the June cycle. Timing will be even more important and it will have to be close to exact. A tough order in the markets. So I'll mull things over and decide which path, if any, to choose.

We traded lower for most of the day and then rallied in the final hour for a gain of 38 points on the Dow. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. The volume was light though. We are starting to break through the daily downtrend line on the S&P 500 but the volume will need to pick up. If we continue with a light volume rally here then I will be looking to get some OEX puts next week. GE had a fractional loss on light volume and I'm leaving in the open order for the July calls. I'm going to reevaluate this trade over the weekend. Perhaps there just isn't enough volatility or price movement in GE to warrant the risk of the trade. We'll see. Gold rose $8 today, while the XAU was up 1/3. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other on very light volume. Here is a case where the interest could wane for the gold shares unless there is some global instability. The dollar was up a bit today but it too is overbought and due for a rest or a pullback. Normally that would be supportive for gold, however these haven't been normal times. If the flight to safety trade loses popularity, then gold will fall. Hasn't happened yet. Mentally I'm feeling fine, slept well. It really looks like the market wants to hold up here and that would tie in with the summation index turning around. I'm not saying that there's going to be some rip roaring rally but at least the decline in the indices should stop for a while. I'm still calling for sideways to higher for at least a month or so. But as always that's a guess and subject to revision going forward. I'm going to have to go over the charts this weekend and have a plan of attack ready for next week. It will be option expiration week so anything can and will happen. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

I think we can say that the decline in the stock indices is over for now as the Dow gained 273 points today. Advance/declines were over 5 to 1 positive and the volume was average. The summation index should start moving higher here. That's not to say that there won't be some down days going forward, there will. But I think the trend is going to be sideways to higher here for the next month or so. I look for another drop in the autumn and that should be a good longer term buying opportunity. I'm leaving in the open order for the GE July calls in case we get a drop in the coming days. GE was up 1/3 today on light to average volume. Gold fell $5 on the futures and a bit more in the aftermarket. The XAU was up 2 1/2, following the overall market. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on light volume. The dollar fell pretty good today but it did not help the price of the precious metal. Perhaps the flight to safety trade is losing steam here with the stability in the stock indices. I canceled the June ABX call trade. I think that I will have to wait on the gold shares. Mentally I'm doing OK. We are right at the daily downtrend line in the stock indices. It looks like we will break through to the upside. If we continue higher I may attempt the OEX puts before expiration. We will have to get short term overbought and we are not there yet. I also think there is a chance that the volatility will slow down as we begin the summer. That will make the trading a lot tougher. But that's a guess. Let's see how we close the week tomorrow.

Opened higher and closed lower as the Dow lost 40 points on average volume. Advance/declines were about even. Hard to say what will happen next as we move sideways attempting to hold around the important 1060 level on the S&P 500. I still have an open order for some GE July calls. My thinking is that we will hold up here but that could all change tomorrow. Oversold on the daily charts of the indices. However the summation index continues lower and we haven't seen a selling washout that usually accompanies a bottom. Gold lost $15 on the futures but came back in the aftermarket. The XAU fell over 2 points. ABX and GG fell about 5/8. NEM dropped 3/4. Volume was light to average. I placed an open order for some ABX June calls. ABX would have to have a pretty good drop for this order to be filled. The daily chart isn't looking exactly bullish but if we get to the 50 day moving average line on a pullback, then I'm willing to take the risk. The dollar fell a bit today. There is still a lot of uncertainty out there. That's the feeling that I get. Mentally I'm a bit tired, could have slept better. Only a couple of days left in the week and who will be buying stocks in this atmosphere? So I have a couple of open orders out and we'll see what happens.

We bounced around a bit and closed higher on the day as the Dow gained 123 points. Advance/declines were positive and the volume picked up from yesterday. Could the decline be over? Perhaps. We have not exactly fallen apart here and technically we have every reason to. So maybe the sideways to upside action that I expect is going to begin now. That's a guess and it could all change tomorrow. However I did put in an order for some July GE calls. Yes, GE doesn't move around as much as the overall market as I've said before. But I'm going to give it a shot and see what happens. We're oversold on GE and today could have been the bottom with a hammer candlestick on the daily chart. We'll see. Gold was up a bit on the futures but fell in the aftermarket. The XAU gained 2 1/3. ABX and GG were only up fractionally after being much higher earlier. NEM gained 1 1/4. It was also higher early. Volume was heavy. It looked like almost a one day reversal to the downside for ABX. I canceled my open order for the June ABX calls. However there is still a buy signal on the Gold/XAU ratio. But the daily ABX candlestick chart doesn't look so good at the moment. Perhaps I'll try the calls again if we get to the 50 day moving average line. But again, it could all change tomorrow. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. So these are interesting times no doubt. We should see some positive action in the overseas markets tonight and that should carry through to a positive open tomorrow in the US. In theory at least. 8 days left for the June options. Risky but I may still attempt something there.

The market tried to hold on all day but couldn't as the Dow lost 115 points on average volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. The S&P 500 closed below the 1060 level. We have crossed the zero line in the summation index. There are no compelling reasons to buy stocks here. In my mind it is a question of just how low are we going to go here. It will be interesting to say the least. We could really start to fall apart. Gold saw safe haven buying as it rose over $20 and is knocking on the door to a new all time high. The XAU was up over 3 points. ABX gained 1 3/4, GG was higher by almost 2 and NEM rose 1 1/2. Volume was average. I placed an early order for some ABX calls but it wasn't filled. I'm still a believer here though and am leaving in an overnight order for the ABX calls at a higher strike price. The Gold/XAU ratio remains on a buy signal even with the positive action today. I don't like to chase things but I'll make an exception this time. Of course it could just blow up in my face with less than 2 weeks to go in the June option cycle. Not to mention the possibility of a market free fall here that will take the gold shares with it. So we'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Looked over everything this weekend and decided that the gold shares were the place to attempt a trade. Might be too late, time will tell. Looking over the stock indices, I think that this will be the drop that will complete a 5 wave pattern to the downside from the April highs. That's what it appears to me. It will set up for some type of sideways or upwards trend for the beginning of the summer before we head lower again. That's my guess at the moment. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

I had thought that perhaps we would break through the daily downtrend line on the major indices. Wrong again. The Dow lost 324 points on good volume. Advance/declines were 8 to 1 negative. The summation index will be heading back down after today. Am I sorry that I wasn't filled on the OEX puts yesterday? Of course but there is nothing I can do about it today. Next week should be interesting. We are in dangerous territory technically so stay tuned. Gold held up today gaining $7. The XAU fell 4 points though. ABX and GG were both off 7/8, while NEM fell 5/8. Volume was average. The Gold/XAU ratio is still on a buy signal. My thinking at the moment is to purchase some gold shares calls on the downside follow through on Monday if there is any. Gold is holding up rather well considering the upside in the dollar. The dollar had another strong day today. Gold is not paying attention. I'll consider things more over the weekend. Mentally I'm still quite tired. I need some rest to clear my thoughts. The problems overseas and with the euro are affecting the indices here in the US. That uncertainty isn't going away anytime soon. We are at the 1060 level in the S&P 500 again and that is key. Monday morning will be interesting. I will need to be ready. I'll be checking the charts over the weekend to get prepared. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

We were up and we were down with the Dow finally ending up with a 5 point gain. Advance/declines were positive. Volume was average. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. The McClellan oscillator moved back into positive territory and the summation index moved higher for the first time in weeks. I did have an order in for some OEX puts today but it wasn't filled. We never did get all the way back to the daily down trend line. Perhaps we will with the reaction to tomorrows employment report. Maybe even break through to the upside. But that's a guess as usual. Gold fell $12 today and the XAU fell 3 3/4. ABX dropped 3/4, GG lost a buck and NEM shed 1 3/8. Volume was light. The dollar was up on the day. I still may consider getting long the gold shares for the June option cycle. The Gold/XAU ratio remains near the buy signal. But there isn't a solid technical reason so I'm holding off for now. Mentally I'm tired, did not sleep enough. Tomorrow probably will be an important day. We are close enough to the daily down trend line on the major indices that it very well may be broken to the upside. We also could fail here and head back down. The reaction or lack of to the employment report should be the catalyst. GE hasn't really moved much lately and I'm not thinking of trying a trade there again at the moment. So we'll see what happens tomorrow and if there is a trade there for me.

Back to the upside with a vengeance as the Dow gained 225 points. Advance/declines were better than 4 to 1 positive and the volume was average. The market is trying to hold on and it looks like it should succeed. But tomorrow is another day as we move back and forth here. We haven't made it to the down trend line yet but could tomorrow. I'm still leaning towards getting the OEX puts if and when that happens. However if we bust through the line on good volume, we'll know that the decline is over. Hasn't happened yet but it looks like it will based on todays action. Employment news on Friday. Gold lost $4 but the XAU was up 4 points following the overall market. ABX was up 1/2 while GG and NEM tacked on about a buck apiece. Volume looked a bit light there. You can't argue with price though. The Gold/XAU ration flashed another buy signal at the beginning of this shortened week. The dollar was up a touch today after being higher early. The gold shares continue to move higher but the volume has been light. No trades there for now. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well. We should get some upside follow through tomorrow. I believe that I'll try to get some OEX puts if we reach 503 on that index. That is the level where the down trend line comes into play. That's the game plan at the moment.

We started the week and the month to the downside as the Dow lost 112 points on average volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. I am waiting for a snap back to the downtrend line in the OEX but it isn't happening. It has the feel again that we are just going to collapse. We are in the technical territory that I explained before that it could happen. I hope it doesn't but anything could happen here. The OEX puts a very expensive so I didn't get any. I'd like to own some before Fridays employment report but it doesn't look like that will happen at this point. Gold was up $8 on the futures but the XAU fell a point. ABX up 1/2, GG up 1/8 and NEM up 7/8. All were higher earlier in the day but fell with the overall market. Volume was good. If we do get a collapse in the stock market, I'll look to pick up some gold share calls. The metal itself has held up pretty good with the stock market volatility. We'll see what happens. Mentally I'm feeling pretty good, slept well. So we are at the moment of truth again for the stock market. Will it hold up here? A solid break of the 1060 level on the S&P 500 with a close below that level will spell big trouble in my opinion. But I've been wrong before as readers of the blog are aware. So we'll see how it plays out. Summation index heading lower with todays action and about the cross the zero line. Dangerous times again in my opinion. We'll see what tomorrow brings.