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Thursday, July 15, 2010

We were lower for most of the day and down over 100 at one point but the Dow came back to close with just a loss of 7 points. Advance/declines were about even and the volume was average. Summation index heading higher. Still overbought and it looks like the positive expiration bias remains in effect. You could have bought the OEX puts yesterday and sold them early today for a profit. But I'm more interested in sustained moves. We are getting a summer rally and I'll have to wait for its conclusion. Gold didn't do much today and the XAU lost 3/4. ABX and GG had fractional moves both ways, while NEM lost a buck. Volume was light. The dollar got clobbered today and gold did not react. The flight to safety trade in the dollar is being taken off. I'm still thinking about the ABX August calls for the earnings announcement in a week and a half. However my confidence is shot at the moment. That said, ABX is in oversold territory. Things to ponder going forward. Mentally I'm doing OK. So it looks like we are putting in back to back decent weeks in the stock market. I have some levels that I'm waiting for and then I am going to purchase some OEX puts for September or October. That's the game plan for now. It's summertime and I expect the doldrums to appear shortly.

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