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Monday, July 26, 2010

We continue higher as the summer rally lives on. The Dow gained 100 points on light volume. Advance/declines were over 3 to 1 positive. The summation index remains in an uptrend. We're overbought and I'd expect some brief downside at some point this week. However we have broken above 1100 on the S&P 500 and the downtrend line from the end of April has been broken to the upside. I think the rally could have more steam than originally anticipated. I am not going to chase it here. Gold was down about $5 on the futures and the XAU lost 1 1/2. ABX fell 5/8, GG dropped 3/8 and NEM lost a buck. Volume was light. Earnings for NEM and GG on Wednesday, with ABX reporting Thursday. I canceled my ABX August call order. The technicals look like they are about to roll over to the downside. The dollar fell today and gold itself could not rally. I can't say that I know what will happen here but I'm taking the risk off the table. I could change my mind tomorrow if ABX were to fall to it's 200 day moving average. But that remains to be seen. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The end of the month is coming up on Friday. We'll see if that skews things. There is some data coming out this week, including the first look at 2nd quarter GDP. So the summer doldrums that I expected haven't materialized in the stock market.

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