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Wednesday, July 07, 2010

Today we got the long awaited oversold bounce as the Dow gained 275 points. Advance/declines were over 5 to 1 positive and the volume was average. So now what? That is the question. I put in an order for some OEX puts which I will leave in overnight. I think we can go a bit higher here in the near term but I do not expect some type of straight up rally. As usual I could be wrong. We are at 1060 on the S&P 500 and I think there's a lid at 1075. We'll see. In downtrends you get these one day short covering rallies that then peter out. Time will tell. Gold came back today too, up $4 on the futures and a bit more in the aftermarket. The XAU gained 4 3/4. ABX and GG were both up around 3/4 or so and NEM led the way by 1 1/4. Volume was light. The dollar lost a touch. ABX is bouncing off of it's daily trend line that has held since February. I still have an order in for the August ABX calls but it won't be filled if we rally from here. I'll have to reconsider this idea tonight. Perhaps now is the time to just purchase some August gold share calls. We are in a seasonal weak period for gold though. However I expect the earnings to be good at the end of this month for ABX. Things to ponder. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. So where do we go from here? Could the market be sold out right now? Always plenty of questions with no clear answers in this game. Will the summation index turn around here? I'm still a believer that this rally today won't last long. Another possibility is that we enter a sideways light volume summer doldrums period. That scenario will not be conducive to outright option positions. So there's a lot to think about tonight. Tomorrows blog will be later in the day as I am taking a half day off to get out of town for a while.

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