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Friday, July 02, 2010

The market tried to get into positive territory but failed at the close. The Dow lost 46 points on light volume. Advance/declines were negative. The jobs report was weak and that was expected. The market is so oversold it is hard to believe that it hasn't yet rallied hard for a day or crashed. The technicals are not acting as they should. The prudent thing to do would be to step aside in my opinion. I'm on the sidelines as far as the indices go but that will change. I'd like to short any bounce we get but then, so does everyone else. Gold was up a touch on the futures and in the aftermarket. The XAU was flat. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other on light volume. I'm leaving in my August ABX call ticket. I'll rethink things over the weekend. The dollar was lower today. I think that the gold earnings will be stellar at the end of this month and would like to be long something by then. But that's a guess and subject to change of course. Mentally I'm tired, did not sleep well. So it was a down week to be sure and we are still oversold. Hard to figure out why there hasn't been some kind of bounce. If the market is really that weak, I would expect a violent down day. Hasn't happened. So on we go. Volatility has decreased in the past couple of days but we are still moving lower. That's another puzzle to try and figure out. Long holiday weekend and a short 4 day week coming up. 9 days left for the July options. I'm leaning towards the OEX puts if we ever get a bounce. But it's risky. There has to be some massive short covering at some point doesn't there? Who knows? Maybe we will simply grind down all the way to the July expiration. At any rate, there is a lot to think about for the next 3 days. But for now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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