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Wednesday, August 11, 2010

Today we got clobbered as the Dow lost 265 on average volume. Advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative. The McClellan oscillator will be turning negative today. The expected decline has begun. The S&P 500 could not make it past the 200 day moving average line. I will be looking to purchase some September OEX puts when we get a snap back. Hopefully we will and I expect this to occur early next week. We have gotten oversold in a hurry. The gold futures were little changed on the day but the XAU lost 4 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM all fell more than a buck on light volume. The dollar had a very good day on the flight to safety trade. Gold held up rather well considering. Obviously things have changed and I am considering a short term ABX call trade now for August. I expect a bounce by Monday in the stock indices and the gold shares should participate. The buy signal has returned for the Gold/XAU ratio. I'll no longer consider going out to September on the gold share trade after todays negative market action. Mentally I'm doing OK. So we have todays very negative action to consider going forward. Was this just a one day wonder? It could be but I doubt it. The technicals have now rolled over for the major indices. My thinking is to perhaps try the short term gold share trade immediately followed by getting the OEX puts for September. I'll have to look things over again tonight and take it from there. I do expect a bounce by Monday but the market will do what it wants.

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