Today we got a one day reversal back to the upside as the Dow opened lower and closed higher.  The Dow gained 67 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were just shy of 2 to 1 positive.  The employment numbers came in light and the market sold off in the morning.  However buyers once again stepped in and the market climbed higher the rest of the session.  My September OEX puts are just about dead, as are the rest of my open option positions.  Terrible risk management or should I say none whatsoever.  But I will say this.  The volume on this particular upswing has been horrible.  It won't end well.  GE was up 1/8 on light volume.  The short term technicals here are trying to head back to the upside.  Gold was flat on the futures, as was the US dollar.  The XAU was up 1/4.  ABX, GG and NEM were mixed with fractional moves.  Volume was about average for what we have seen lately.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit down.  The steep losses that I'm about to take are the reason.  Once again I am going to have to take a step back and implement some strict trading rules.  There is no one to blame but myself.  When the summation index turned around, that is when I should have exited the OEX put trades.  When the dollar broke above the 81.50 level, that was the time to forget about and long gold share trades.  But once again I sometimes get emotionally involved in the trades, as if I have to get them all correct.  That, as we all know, is never going to happen.  So it's back to the drawing board again.  The summation index is still trending higher.  The short term technicals for the stock indices are still overbought but they have been now for three weeks.  The TRAN continues to make new highs and that is bullish.  Gold broke down this week and the next support is at the $1240 level.  The weakness in the gold shares this week doesn't bode well for higher prices anytime soon.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend as usual and deciding my next trading move.  I obviously need to make some specific changes in my trading tactics because what I have tried so far this year simply isn't working.  But for now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

A minor one day reversal in the Dow as it opened higher and closed lower.  The most watched index lost 8 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  We did come up from the lows of the session.  The TRAN did make it to new all time high territory and that is bullish.  However the good news of lower rates overseas didn't see the market take off to the upside.  Tomorrows employment report will set the tone for Fridays trading.  I do not know what to expect.  As always, the reaction to the numbers will be key.  GE was flat on the session and the volume was average for lately.  Gold was off $4 and that much again in the aftermarket as the US dollar took off on the European rate news.  The dollar rose almost a full point in the currency market. The XAU dropped 3 1/3 and has now broken down out of the consolidation zone.  ABX, GG and NEM all fell 3/4 on good volume.  The October ABX call trade is now dead.  The strength in the dollar has finally taken effect.  The seasonal pattern for gold and the gold shares did not pan out this year.  The gold shares are leading the way lower and that is not bullish.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So we will have to see if this is the start of an actual decline for the stock indices or simply another buying opportunity.  My only hope for the September OEX put trades that I'm holding is that some type of decline has begun.  However one day doesn't make a trend.  I'm thinking that the significant rise in the US dollar will impact the profits of the big multi-national corporations at some point.  If and when the market starts to factor that in would lead to some weakness.  That my theory at the moment.  Gold can find no buyers.  The fundamentals right now don't favor gold but that has been the case for quite some time.  The weakness in the gold shares doesn't bode well going forward.  Unless there is a dramatic turnaround for gold in the near future, the trend is down and who knows by how much?  We'll see how the European markets do overnight and wait for the US employment report tomorrow.

The Dow gained 10 points today on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative again.  Just marking time here again as the stock market continues a low volume pattern.  The NASDAQ was much lower today and that is not bullish.  However that may have simply been a factor of APPL taking a dive.  The summation index continues higher.  Waiting for a catalyst one way or the other for the stock indices.  GE was up a dime and the volume was light.  Nothing has changed here as well.  Gold stabilized with a $5 gain as the US dollar was lower for a change.  The XAU lost 1/2 though.  ABX, GG and NEM were off fractionally or unchanged on the session.  Volume slacked off from yesterday.  The trend here is down now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Perhaps the employment report on Friday will get things going for the stock indexes.  Despite the return of the major players, trading remains lackluster.  That isn't really a good sign but things can change rather quickly in this game.  We will just have to wait and see what happens.  My option positions all remain losers.  We'll keep an eye on the foreign markets tonight and take it from there.

The Dow fell 30 points today on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The market sold off during the session but made most of it back.  It is a market that wants to go higher.  The summation index continues to the upside.  The small stocks outperformed and that is bullish.  The TRAN had a strong session and that bodes well for higher prices.  My over leveraged September OEX put trade is getting crushed.  I suppose I'll give it until the employment report on Friday.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume was light.  GE came off of its lows as well.  Gold broke down today as support at $1275 did not hold.  The precious metal futures were down over $20.  The US dollar made another new high for the year.  The XAU fell 3 1/2.  ABX off 1/2, GG lost 1 1/3 and NEM shed 2/3.  Volume was good to the downside for the gold shares and that is not bullish.  The positive seasonal pattern has not shown up this year.  With all the geopolitical turmoil in the world, gold cannot even rally.  That bodes ill for the bulls.  My October ABX calls are losers.  Another failed trade so far.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I expect that the stock market will be heading higher tomorrow as it tried to sell off today but barely did.  There is plenty of money coming from somewhere.  Still overbought but not as much as it was.  GE has moved lower than the overall market recently but it hasn't meant anything yet.  Gold should continue down to the $1240 level.  We'll have to see what happens when it gets there.  The gold share indices are on the verge of breaking down from their 2 1/2 month consolidation.  All of my option positions are heavy losers and it looks like I'll have to book the losses soon.  We'll follow the overnight action and see what tomorrow brings.

A pop in the last hour pushed the Dow to a gain of 18 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were a little over 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues higher.  Next week all the players will return and we will see which way things go.  Right now everything is pointing to higher prices.  The overall market is much stronger than the Dow.  The advance/decline line continues to make new highs.  My over leveraged September put position is a big loser.  Three weeks to go in the September option cycle.  GE was barely changed and the volume was light.  These September puts that I own are big losers too.  Gold was off a few bucks as the US dollar continued to climb higher.  The XAU was up 1 1/4 as the gold shares out performed the precious metal once again.  That is a bullish sign but with the strength in the dollar, I can't really see any big gains for gold coming.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains again on light volume.  My October ABX calls are losers, joining the rest of my recent poor trades.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We closed out the month with gains and the normal pattern of weakness in the market for this time period is not showing up yet again.  The near term technicals point to even higher prices coming.  I'll probably hold onto my September options until the employment report next Friday.  But unless we see a dramatic turnaround in equities next week, these trades will be losers.  There hasn't been a catalyst for gold and silver despite the continuing geopolitical turmoil.  I don't know what it is going to take to get this market going.  The positive seasonal influence is not happening here as well.  That trade goes out to October, so it still has time to turn positive.  But at the rate things are going there, it will probably just be another loser.  I'll be checking the charts over the long weekend and keeping an eye out on any news that may affect the markets.  For now it's the unofficial last weekend of summer and time for a break.

Another day of watching paint dry as the Dow fell 42 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  We sold off fast early and spent the rest of the session coming back.  Buyers arrived on the dip.  The volume is so light here that this will simply be a lost summer week.  Tomorrow should be just as lackluster.  GE was off 1/8 and volume was very light.  Nothing new to report.  Gold found a bid on the futures as they rose seven bucks.  The US dollar was flat on the day.  ABX, GG and NEM all had minor fractional gains on light volume.  Waiting for a catalyst here as well and the summer doldrums continue.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We will have to see what kind of mood the traders are in after this weekend.  The summation index continues higher.  We worked off some of the markets overbought condition today.  Right now I'm expecting a positive start to next week.  What happens after that will be the key to my September put trades.  They are all pretty big losers now.  Gold found some buyers at the $1275 level but it certainly isn't convincing.  However gold has held up OK despite a decent break out to the upside in the US dollar.  That is encouraging to the bulls.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

The middle of the week and we are simply marking time here.  The Dow gained 15 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  Nothing has changed from yesterday.  Time premium is being sucked out of any open option positions.  I would expect a quiet rest of this week.  The summation index continues higher.  GE was up 1/8 and the volume was light.  Keep an eye on GE.  Gold lost a buck or so and the US dollar was lower for a change.  We are in a holding pattern now for gold as well.  The XAU was off 1/8.  ABX, GG and NEM were all little changed on light volume.  Nothing new to report.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm holding on to losing positions and waiting for next week to begin.  It is a lousy strategy but it is all I can do at the moment.  Unless I want to close out with major losses.  Over leveraged to the downside and that was the wrong thing to do.  We'll watch what happens overnight but I would expect more of the summer doldrums for now.

Nothing but good news from the economic numbers today and that helped the Dow to a gain of about 30 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues to the upside.  No overhead resistance for the major stock indices and daily new all time prices are the norm.  I should have not tried the September OEX put trades but hindsight is always correct.  GE was off almost 20 cents and the volume slightly picked up.  If GE is the leader once again we should start to see some weakness in the indexes.  Hasn't happened yet.  Gold found a bid today as the precious metal futures rose six bucks.  The US dollar was up yet again.  The XAU gained 2 1/8.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on light volume.  Still waiting on the positive seasonal factors for gold to kick in.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Slow volume continues as we reach the end of summer.  This week is playing out as expected with a move higher to begin the week.  I don't see any bumps in the road yet for this rally.  I'm just hanging on to the losing positions that I own and waiting for next week.  Without a doubt overbought here for the stock indices.  But the market can sometimes stay overbought for long periods of time and we have yet to see any sellers arrive on scene.  Gold is hanging in there so far this week.  However the fundamentals right now are not bullish.  Plenty of time still left on the ABX call trade though.  We'll keep an eye on the foreign action overnight and take it from there.

More of the same as the Dow gained 75 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues to the upside.  Overbought, staying that way and bullishness remains.  There are no sellers.  It's the last week of summer so I would not expect much action.  My over leveraged September puts are losing money.  This idea is a disaster so far.  I don't know what it will take to turn things around.  At some point, I will have to swallow the loss.  GE was up a nickel and the volume was light.  My September GE puts are losers as well.  Nothing new to report here.  Gold was off a bit on the futures while the US dollar continued higher.  There is no resistance for the dollar here and that is not good news for the gold bulls.  The XAU lost 1 1/3.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume.  My October ABX calls are losing as well, keeping with the theme of poor trades at the moment.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Some economic data out this week.  However the major players are still out for the summer.  We should get things going next week.  Unfortunately this week will suck out some more of the time premium in the option positions.  It is basically a period to sit and wait.  The short term technicals for the stock indices are very overbought.  The medium term indicators are overbought as well.  I do expect some near term pull back but it hasn't happened yet.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.  

A mixed bag to close out the week as the Dow shed 38 points on very light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The small stocks were up on the session and that's bullish going forward.  The summation index continues to rise.  All signs are still pointing to higher prices for stocks despite the overbought condition on the indices.  I'm still over leveraged and holding on to the September OEX puts.  Four weeks remaining for this trade and I've decided to give it another week.  Unfortunately, the major players are still out until Labor day.  This trade is showing a decent loss at the moment.  GE was off 1/4 on light volume.  One day doesn't make a trend.  However there is a possibility that GE is rolling over here.  That would bode well for the September OEX put trades that I have.  The September GE puts that I own are pretty good losers.  Gold was up about five bucks on the futures and made it back to $1280.  It is on the precipice of major trouble though if this level is severely breached.  The US dollar was higher today as well.  The trend is clearly up for the greenback.  The XAU was off 1/4.  ABX, GG and NEM all dropped 1/4 on light volume.  These shares are still in their consolidation channels but at the bottom of them.  Next week could be the key and all signals appear to point to lower prices.  My October ABX calls have lost half of their value.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  One more week of summer and then I would expect volume to perk up along with volatility.  But who knows?  The past couple of years has seen the beginning of September with nice gains for the stock indexes.  Perhaps it will be three years in a row.  I've decided my course of action and it is to be positioned for a decline.  It appears that this OEX put idea will either make or break my trading year.  No one trade should determine that but it is what it is.  The market will go where it wants.  Overbought, staying there and very light volume any way you slice it.  Gold is oversold as are the gold shares but not completely.  I've commented at length on the favorable seasonal time period for gold.  We are now in it and haven't seen any kind of sustained upside for gold.  There is still time for that to happen but it certainly is late.  As usual I'll be checking the charts out over the weekend.  My thinking right now is that next week will be more of the same.  Quiet, summer like trading with a bias to the upside.  But anything can happen in this game.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Still moving basically straight up as the Dow gained 60 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues higher.  The S&P 500 hit a new all time high today.  Overbought and staying that way.  I'm still over leveraged in the September OEX puts.  This idea has done nothing but fail since I started taking positions.  At the rate the market is going, it will be one of my biggest losers.  There is nothing to suggest that the stock market is going to head lower.  Still over four weeks left in this option cycle but the main players won't return until after Labor day.  The things that I thought would cause lower prices are not happening.  GE was up a few cents and the volume was light.  The September puts that I have here are nearly worthless.  Another failed trade for now.  Gold finally got whacked as the futures fell about $20.  We are now below the important $1280 level.  We will have to see how the week closes out tomorrow.  The US dollar was slightly lower today.  The XAU was off 2 1/8.  ABX shed 1/4,   GG down 1/8 and NEM lost 7/8.  Volume picked up to the downside and that is not a good sign for the bulls.  The gold shares haven't broken down out of the nearly two month consolidation yet.  But they do appear to be on the verge of doing so.  I'm still holding on to the October ABX calls although they have lost half of what I paid for them.  My thinking is that sooner or later the positive seasonal factors will kick in.  Looks like later if at all.  Mentally I'm feeling tired, not enough sleep and dental problems.  Stocks are very overbought and I am leveraged to the downside.  This is not a good place to be.  My thinking has been atrocious and my trading tactics have been wrong.  The market does not care.  Perhaps I am just too stubborn in my attempts to trade here.  With the summation index continuing to the upside, the only smart play is to be long.  As always, I will pay for my errors.  Gold broke down today and it appears poised to head even lower.  The gold shares are out performing but in this environment it only means they aren't going down as far.  There are still a couple of months for the ABX trade to work but at this rate it won't.  When everything is going wrong perhaps it is best to take a step back.  I'll consider this overnight.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

And the beat goes on.  The Dow rose 59 points today on light volume.  The advance/declines were about even.  The Dow was stronger than the overall market and that usually isn't bullish.  However the way things have been going lately, that may not matter.  It seems as though there are no sellers.  The summation index continues to the upside.  I did move up to a closer to the money strike price on the September OEX puts but I did not yet sell the other puts that I already own.  This increases the leverage and the risk.  I should sell the earlier position tomorrow to be on the safe side.  If their is anything safe about trading options.  The major stock indices appear poised to hit new all time highs.  I'm still not a believer in light volume rallies but perhaps I am wrong.  GE is leading the way and gained 1/3 today on OK volume.  GE led the way down and is now leading the way back up.  It is something to keep an eye on.  Gold was off another couple of bucks on the futures but the US dollar had another strong session.  The dollar has broken trough some long term resistance and the trend is up.  The XAU was up 1/4.  ABX, GG and NEM were all little changed on light volume.  Considering the move in the dollar, the gold shares held up pretty good.  Not exactly sure what to make of that.  The October ABX calls that I have are still showing a loss.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  All signs point to higher stock prices at this juncture.  The Fed minutes today provided a temporary dip but it didn't last long.  Declines can be bought.  Then why try the OEX puts here?  We are short term overbought.  The second year of the presidents term usually has a decent decline at some point and we haven't seen anything like that yet.  The rally from the recent lows is on very weak volume.  There is plenty of time in the September option cycle for this trade to work.  Gold is still going nowhere.  It is a surprise that we haven't seen some kind of actual decline there.  Perhaps the seasonal positive tendency will prevail.  We'll see if the European markets can get headed back to the upside tonight. 

Another strong day to the upside as the Dow gained 80 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues higher.  The small stocks are doing good too.  I tried to move to a closer strike price again on the September OEX puts but my order wasn't filled.  I'm prepared to take yet another loss on the existing trade if I can get the closer to the money puts.  I am still a believer in this idea because the volume on this rally has been pretty anemic.  However that could just be a summer phenomena.  Time will tell on that.  GE was flat on the day, volume extremely light.  This September put trade has lost about half of its value.  It may be time to pull the plug.  Gold lost a couple bucks on the futures today.  The US dollar broke above its recent consolidation to the upside.  This isn't bullish for gold but gold is somehow hanging in there without a decline.  SO far that is.  The XAU was off 7/8.  ABX and GG had slight fractional losses, while NEM was flat.  Volume was light once again.  My October ABX calls are still showing a loss.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit drained, had a tooth pulled today.  It appears that the major stock indices are poised to hit new all time highs.  My idea for the September puts has failed pretty badly so far.  I'll probably try to get to a close strike price tomorrow and if that doesn't happen I'll simply stand pat with what I've got.  Short term overbought now for the stock indexes.  Gold is going nowhere fast and silver just keeps going down.  With a rising US dollar, things are not looking good from the long side of the precious metal complex.  Perhaps all my thinking is just wrong at the moment.  It's possible.  I'll consider what to do overnight.  We'll see if the foreign markets follow the Dow higher and get ready for Wednesday.

The market screamed to the upside today as the Dow gained 175 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were over 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is heading higher.  Some small stock indices are hitting new recovery highs and that is bullish leading the market here.  Getting short term overbought for the major stock indices.  The trend is now up though.  My September OEX puts are now losers.  The question is whether or not to hold them for now or just take the loss.  The stock indexes act like they want to go to new all time highs.  I'll probably wait to see how the rest of the week shapes up.  But this trade is not acting well.  GE was up 3/8 on summer average volume.  GE got above its 200 day moving average today.  My September puts here are losers as well.  Short term overbought here on the technicals.  We closed on the high of the day as did some of the major averages.  Gold fell around seven bucks on the futures as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU managed a 1/2 point gain.  ABX, GG and NEM all finished the day close to unchanged.  The volume was very light.  There is no interest in gold or the gold shares at the moment.  My October ABX calls are showing a slight loss.  I'll hold these as long as gold does not break below the trading range that it has traveled over the past two months.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  My idea for the September index puts is not looking good at the moment.  With the small stocks leading the way here, we could be in for a decent rally.  Not a lot of economic data out this week.  It's possible we could find ourselves in the summer doldrums after todays huge upside move.  But that's a guess as usual.  The only thing that the September OEX put trade has going for it now is the extra week in the option cycle.  Still waiting for the positive seasonal factors to kick in for gold.  Over halfway through August now and we have yet to see any kind of sustained rally.  The gold shares are holding up for now.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight action and go from there.

An interesting day to be sure as the Dow fell 50 points on a bit better volume.  The advance/declines were about even.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow.  The NASDAQ registered a gain on the day and that is bullish.  The market had a gap to the upside to start the session but an hour or so later news from the Ukraine sent the stock indices lower.  The rest of the day was spent recovering from that sell off.  The summation index is moving higher and the stock market has all the signs of wanting to move higher.  Volatility picked up today.  My September OEX puts are about at what I paid for them.  This trade has plenty of time to work but the market isn't acting bearish at the moment.  It is acting quite bullish and perhaps this idea is simply wrong.  GE fell 1/4 and volume picked up a little just like the overall market.  The September puts that I own here are break even.  The gold futures fell almost $10 today despite the trouble in the Ukraine.  Silver got walloped as well and that is not good news for the precious metals complex if you are long.  The US dollar was a bit weaker as well.  The XAU was off by 2/3.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume.  The October ABX calls that I have are slightly positive.  If gold can't rally on todays news, I don't know what it will take to get things going higher.  The positive seasonal factors haven't taken hold yet.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A positive week for the major stock indexes but the volume was pretty light.  Perhaps the next two weeks will be more of the same with regards to volume.  The major players are still out for the summer.  Maybe I was too quick in taking the September options positions.  The market appears to want to go higher despite the loss for the Dow today.  I guess a lot depends on what happens in the Ukraine over the weekend.  The short term technicals have worked back up from the oversold condition but are not overbought yet.  I think that gold really needs silver to stop going down to get any kind of sustained rally going.  The silver chart looks ugly if you're bullish.  The CRB has also been heading almost straight down for almost a month and a half.  It appears obvious that despite all the money that has been thrown around, inflation is not a concern at the moment.  That isn't bullish for gold.  But as usual, anything can happen in this game.  I'll be checking out the charts and the headlines over the weekend.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

The upward push of the market continues as the Dow gained 61 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The S&P 500 is right at the 1955 level and also poised at its 50 day moving average.  The volume has been light all the way up and I think that this rally is not going to last.  However, the September OEX puts I bought yesterday have already lost 35% of their value, so I sold them today and took the loss.  I then repurchased some September OEX puts at a closer to the money strike price for less than what I paid for the options yesterday.  If the trade does work as expected, the loss taken today will more than be made up due to the closer to the money strike price of todays option purchase.  If the trade doesn't work, it will amount to about the same loss that holding onto the September puts that I sold for a loss today would have had.  The stock indices closed at their highs today which is bullish.  Plus the small stocks are leading the way.  So perhaps my idea of getting some index puts is completely wrong.  The summation index is heading higher now as well.  GE was up a nickel and the volume was light.  The September puts I own here are showing a small loss.  Gold was flat on the session as was the US dollar.  These markets are in a summer doldrums pattern for this week so far.  The XAU fell 1 1/4.  ABX and NEM were flat, while GG fell 1/4.  Volume was pretty light.  Nothing new to report here as we wait for the next catalyst.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We'll close out option expiration week tomorrow.  We are in a light volume rally so far this week.  Light volume rallies cannot be trusted.  I do still believe that we will soon be rolling over and that we will also be taking out the recent lows in the major stock indices.  I could be wrong and often am.  The gold market is going nowhere at the moment.  Patience is required but we are going to move pretty good one way or the other soon.  The Bollinger bands on the daily chart are telegraphing that.  So we'll see.  As always we'll watch the overseas overnight action and take it from there.

Back to the upside today as the Dow climbed 91 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were about 3 to 1 positive.  Today should turn the summation index up.  I bought the September OEX puts today.  The scenario of a light volume rally after the initial drop is playing out as hoped for.  However my entry today was rushed and I could have gotten a better price on the options.  I still think this is the proper trade unless we continue to move higher past the 1955 level on the S&P 500.  So we'll see what happens.  GE was up almost 1/4 and the volume was light.  The September puts that I have here are now at break even.  It's a good idea to keep an eye on GE here as well for clues to the overall market direction.  Gold was up a bit on the futures and the US dollar was a little higher as well.  The XAU was flat on the session.  ABX was off 1/8,  GG rose 3/8 and NEM was flat on the day.  Still waiting for gold and the gold shares to break higher.  Short term overbought for now here.  My October calls for ABX are still in the black but not by as much as before.  Mentally I'm feeling frustrated with myself on the September OEX put entry.  I should have let the trade come to me but I got anxious.  There is nobody to blame here but myself.  Hopefully I'll do better on the exit.  Plenty of time for this trade to work.  Building a top here on the stock indexes would be the preferred price action.  However as always, the market will go where it wants.  Over five weeks to go in the September option cycle.  Gold remains in a trading range.  Hopefully the favorable seasonal pattern kicks in at some point this month.  August expiration is on Friday.  So we'll keep an eye on the foreign markets overnight and see what transpires.

Digestion of the recent gains as the Dow fell 9 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index has started to move sideways.  I'm trying to remain patient here but I don't want to be late for the September OEX puts.  The timing for purchase looks like it will be tough as usual.  The ideal scenario would be a nice up move tomorrow in the stock indices.  But the market rarely cooperates.  Trading the index options requires even more finesse than individual issues in my opinion.  Hopefully the upside expiration week bias will continue.  Another short squeeze would be good for the cause but that remains to be seen.  GE was off over 1/8 and the volume was very light.  The September puts that I own here are slightly in the black.  Gold was little changed on the session but did come off of its highs.  Ditto for the US dollar.  The XAU rose 1 3/8.  ABX, GG and NEM were all higher by 1/2 or so.  Volume was good for the summer.  The October ABX calls that I have are in the black.  Plenty of time to go here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We got a bounce from the oversold levels of the major stock indices and now we are waiting for the next catalyst.  Perhaps the retail sales data tomorrow will provide some direction.  Maybe if we can get some rally from the overseas markets it will propel the US stock indexes higher.  For now we're more oversold than overbought short term.  Just waiting to buy some September index puts at this point.  Gold is on hold but the daily Bollinger bands are starting to get closer, which implies some movement coming in the near future.  The gold shares are out performing now and that is a positive.  However silver is not moving higher with gold and remains oversold.  The best situation would be to get those two rising in tandem.  We can hope but hope has no place in trading.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight price action and see what tomorrow brings.

Higher today but not by much for the Dow as it gained 16 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  Getting a decent move up for now as today could turn around the summation index.  I'm still a believer in the September OEX puts though.  I plan on getting them this week on more strength if we see any as the week progresses.  The ideal scenario in my mind would to get to the 1950 level on the S&P 500.  We'll have to see how the week plays out.  GE was up 1/8 on summer average volume.  We did get to the $26 level today and I did get some September GE puts when we got there.  Plenty of time for this trade to work and it fits in with my bearish prognosis.  Gold didn't do much today and neither did the US dollar.  The XAU managed a gain of 1 1/8.  ABX was flat, while GG and NEM had fractional gains.  Volume was light.  The October ABX calls that I have are slightly in the black.  Holding on for now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm going to try and be patient when attempting to get the September OEX puts this week.  But I don't want to be late either.  It is a tough game to play.  Of course I could be wrong in my thinking and the stock indices simply rally from here.  However I am looking for more downside as the summer ends and we roll into September.  The short term technicals are still oversold for the major stock indices.  On thing in the bulls favor though is the out performance recently of the small stocks.  So it is a difficult call to make one way or the other.  Gold has been lacking a trend for a month.  We are in a good seasonal period but that doesn't always mean a rally will be coming.  At least today the gold shares found some buyers but it wasn't a huge move.  The foreign stock markets have started to bounce so perhaps the US stock indexes will keep pace.  There should be an opportunity this week to get set up in the September puts, hopefully.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight action and go from there.

We finally got a rally today as the Dow soared 185 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  The McClellan oscillator is heading back towards the zero line.  Can it make it through there is the question.  In negative markets the rallies come quick out of nowhere.  Today qualifies for that.  The light volume also is telling.  I'll look for a 50% retracement of this decline to purchase some September OEX puts.  This may or may not be the proper outlook going forward but it is the idea at the moment.  Perhaps there will be a positive bias for expiration week.  GE was up over 1/8 and the volume was light here as well.  If we make it back to 26 or close to it, I'll try the September puts here as well.  Holding onto the 50 week moving average for now.  Gold was off a touch on the futures as the US dollar was lower as well.  The XAU rose 1/8 but finished well off of the highs.  ABX and NEM were up 1/4, while GG fell 1/4.  Volume was light.  My October ABX calls are now slightly in the black.  Gold had a positive week but we'll need to see it build on that to really get bullish.  I get the feeling it could be just sideways action coming up.  But what do I know?  My guesses haven't been all that good lately.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The major stock indices managed a decent bounce today.  The markets were very oversold and due for something to the upside.  It has all the looks of short covering to me.  I certainly hope it continues next week because I am still a believer in the September put idea.  But anything can happen in this game.  There is an extra week in the September option cycle and that will add to the cost of trying September trades.  Gold and silver have gone opposite ways of late and that isn't really bullish.  Gold is now short term overbought with silver just the opposite.  It would be much more bullish if they rose in tandem.  The gold shares remain in a trading range.  Plenty of time for the October calls to work here but it may take a while to really get going.  And they could get going in either direction as well.  So on it goes.  I'll be checking signs from the various media outlets to see the reaction to todays positive market action.  The ideal scenario for the bearish cause would be an indication that all is well.  There's plenty of charts to check over the weekend.  However the game plan for the September puts remains the same.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Lower we go as the Dow fell 75 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were just slightly negative though.  The summation index continues lower.  Will we ever get a decent bounce to get short is now the question.  But everybody is waiting for the same thing it seems.  Oversold and staying there for the major stock indices.  That could be dangerous.  Caution is still advised in my book because I think we have a lot further to go on the downside.  I could be wrong.  GE was up a few cents and the volume was average.  GE hasn't led things higher near term.  I'm now considering some September GE puts since the OEX puts have gotten very expensive.  Just a thought for now.  GE is holding at its 50 week moving average.  The gold futures rose around five bucks as the US dollar gained back what it lost yesterday.  The XAU was flat on the session.  ABX, GG and NEM all had slight fractional gains on light volume.  My October ABX calls are slightly in the red.  Nothing to do but hold on here for this trade.  Plenty of time and the favorable seasonal factors hopefully kick in for gold.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Everyone knows now that the trend is down.  I don't see any sustainable rallies in the near future.  Simply waiting to get some puts on something.  Option expiration week is coming up.  Will the usual positive bias show up?  The McClellan oscillator remains in negative territory and the positive divergence there earlier in the week did not pan out.  Gold has had a bounce this week but it hardly qualifies for an uptrend.  Ditto for the gold shares, which still have yet to break out from their recent consolidation.  Volume was anemic today in this complex.  We'll close out the week and it is anybodies guess what will happen tomorrow.  The European markets have been very weak as of late and that is probably weighing on the US.  So we'll see.

A waiting game today as the Dow rose 14 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  We did not continue lower today and that is a positive for the bulls.  I did place an order this morning for the August OEX calls but canceled it later in the session.  I still think that this trade could work and may try again tomorrow.  The summation index continues lower.  Only seven days left in the August option cycle, so any trade will have to be short term in nature.  I still like the September OEX puts on a relatively longer term basis.  GE was up 3/8 and the volume was good.  GE led the way down so it figures to now lead the way back up.  It is another reason to potentially try the August OEX call trade.  Gold rallied today as the futures rose over $20.  The US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU gained 2 points.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on better volume.  My October ABX calls are now slightly in the red.  Perhaps this is the beginning of a leg up in gold.  Time will tell on that.  The volume on the gold shares was good and that is bullish.  The US dollar is also at resistance so perhaps it will be turned back down here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  To trade or not to trade here is the question at the moment.  The risk is elevated since the time is running out for the August cycle.  There is a positive divergence on the McClellan oscillator.  The short term technicals are oversold for the major stock indices.  So maybe I'll try the calls tomorrow.  The gold shares acted better today but one day doesn't make a trend.  There has been very little of the summer doldrums so far this year.  We'll keep an eye on things overnight as usual and see what tomorrow brings.

So much for a quiet week.  The Dow fell 140 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues to decline.  The market needs to hold in here or it will really get ugly.  I think that we will hold up for now.  If I had any guts, I would buy some August OEX calls tomorrow for a short term trade.  But the better idea in my mind is to get some September puts if we see some strength.  The short term technicals are oversold and staying there.  Let's remember that markets go down a lot faster than they go up.  If we see a rally, short it.  If we don't, then it is too late.  GE lost 1/4 and the volume was OK.  Keep an eye on GE.  It is oversold both short and medium term.  It needs to hold in here.  Gold was off a few bucks today as the US dollar closed above the 81.50 level.  Perhaps the dollar will continue to rally on the flight to safety trade now that it has gotten above resistance.  That would not be good for gold.  The XAU managed a 3/4 gain.  ABX was flat, while GG and NEM had fractional gains.  Volume was light.  No interest in the gold shares but at least they didn't decline with the overall market.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Interesting times I must say.  If we don't see some positive action soon, the market will fall apart.  This isn't something that can usually happen but we are getting closer to the zero line in the summation index.  There is a chance that it could occur and that is yet another reason to purchase some OEX September puts.  I do not know if the market will give me a chance to buy them though.  As for the short term, we got the bounce on Monday and today was not positive.  The McClellan oscillator remains very negative and should bounce higher than it has.  I probably won't try the August OEX calls tomorrow.  Make no mistake, the trend is down.  Gold came back a bit in the aftermarket but is simply grinding its way lower.  The gold shares have been moving sideways for almost two months.  It looks like they want to break down.  That would not bode well for my October ABX calls.  They are still in the red.  We'll see how the overseas markets react to todays negative session and go from there.

Bounce expected and it arrived on cue.  The Dow rose 75 points on summer average volume.  The advance/declines were less than 2 to 1 positive.  If you were good enough, you could have gotten the August OEX calls at around 8AM and sold them for a nice profit before the close.  I, as has been the case lately, wasn't quick enough.  We'll have to see how far this bounce goes but the summation index is still heading lower.  I'm going to have to focus on the OEX September puts and maybe leave it at that.  The short term technicals for the major stock indices remain oversold.  GE was off a few cents and the volume was average.  No trades in GE for now but I still am considering the idea for the calls of early next year.  Plenty of time to purchase though.  Gold was off over $5 on the futures.  The US dollar didn't move much today.  The XAU lost around 1 1/8.  ABX and GG had fractional losses, while NEM rose 3/8.  Volume was good for NEM, light for the others.  My October ABX calls remain in the red.  There was some major volume in the October option cycle for ABX.  The 18 strike price had over 10000 contracts traded on both sides.  The 19 strike price had over 20000 contracts traded on the call side.  I don't know what to make of it but somebody is betting big here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK considering I just missed another trading opportunity.  At least the idea worked, even if I didn't make any money off of it.  I'm a believer that rallies can be shorted now.  I'll be looking for an entry point on the September OEX puts.  Of course as always I could be wrong here and the decline has run its course.  But I'm not really thinking that will be the case.  Gold is hanging around its 50 and 200 day moving average.  The gold shares have under performed near term and that isn't bullish.  The short term technicals for the gold shares are oversold though.  Plenty of time for the October call trade to work.  Seasonal factors are in the positive camp as well.  We'll keep an eye on the foreign markets overnight and go from there.  Not a lot of economic data out this week so it may get quiet.

Trying to stabilize today as the Dow fell 70 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were less than 2 to 1 negative.  The employment report came in a bit less than expected but the technicals are what we need to keep an eye on for now.  The summation index is heading lower.  Blown out to the downside on the indicators here.  A decent bounce is the next expectation.  Will it be worth the risk to trade it?  Maybe.  Two weeks to go in the August option cycle.  However a bounce is all it should be as uptrend lines have been violated and the nature of the game has changed for now.  GE turned around and was higher by 20 cents on good volume.  GE led the way down and now is giving a clue as to what to expect next in the near term.  Gold recouped $12 on the futures as the US dollar was slightly lower today.  The XAU was up about 2/3.  ABX, GG and NEM had fractional gains on summer average volume.  The technicals here for the gold shares are mixed.  My October ABX calls are still slightly in the red.  I guess I'll hold on to them for now.  I'm viewing the past month here as a consolidation from the rise in June.  If that is correct, we should once again move higher in the weeks to come.  I could be wrong.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Quite a week as we saw the first major daily decline in a while.  I think that there will be more to come.  Let us not forget the January weakness and what that usually means for the market.  But in the near term, I'll consider getting some August OEX calls on Monday for a bounce next week.  It's risky but the rise in GE today combined with very oversold short term conditions may make it a good idea.  We'll see.  I really don't see any catalysts for the price of gold one way or the other.  Perhaps the rise in the US dollar will stall out here at the 81.50 level.  The Bollinger bands are starting to contract on the weekly gold chart, so a big move will eventually be coming there.  No doubt before the October ABX calls that I now have expire.  Which way gold goes is the question but we are in a favorable seasonal period there.  Plenty of charts and things to consider over this weekend.  But for now it is Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Well, so much for a quiet Thursday ahead of the employment report.  The Dow got clobbered today and fell 317 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 9 to 1 negative.  The summation index is still heading lower and with a vengeance now.  We were oversold and remain that way.  There were plenty of clues that we were going to head lower but once again I failed to capitalize on them.  However make no mistake going forward.  Rallies can be shorted.  We closed on the low of the day for the S&P 500 and that should spell even more trouble tomorrow.  My guess is that we'll make it to the 50 week moving average and that is 100 S&P points from here.  Look for September puts.  GE lost 1/2 on good volume.  Oversold, staying there and we just broke through the 50 week moving average here.  GE was a precursor to what's happening.  Longer term trend lines have now been broken here.  So that's a clue as to what is going to unfold in the days and weeks to come.  Gold fell $14 and dropped below the $1290 level.  The US dollar was little changed on the session.  The XAU fell 2 points.  ABX and GG lost 1/3, while NEM shed 2/3.  Volume was summer average.  The earnings came out for ABX and GG but in a market environment like this, earnings take a back seat.  My ABX October calls are now in the red.  My thinking is that perhaps I should just dump these and take the loss but I figured I'd at least wait until the employment report tomorrow.  Mentally I'm feeling OK considering.  My ideas at the moment are not working.  There were clues out there that I did not follow.  I did not figure what the inability of the McClellan oscillator to get through the zero line implied, although I knew it meant something.  The obvious breakdown in GE was there but I did not take enough notice.  The poor breadth was noted but it did not sink in to my mind to act on it.  The Bollinger bands did contract but you can never exactly know which way that they will break.  But the markets don't wait for you or hear your excuses.  It is where we go from now that counts moving forward.  The bell has sounded.  We are going lower.  How much is the question.  I'll be looking for September OEX puts on a bounce.  If the McClellan oscillator can't make it above the zero line again, the decline will get uglier.  We are moving into the favorable seasonal time for gold.  However when the market goes sideways, it usually takes everything with it.  If gold and the gold shares can hold in here and turn around, then the ABX October call trade has a chance.  That could happen if we get a flight to safety theme on fear to arise.  But that remains to be seen.  We'll get the employment report tomorrow and things will probably get volatile off of that number.  We'll watch for downside follow through overnight in the foreign markets and go from there.

It was interesting as promised as the Dow fell 31 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  We opened up over 70 points on a better than expected GDP number.  The market then lost its steam and preceded to fall down over 70 points.  The Fed announcement came and we rallied back up to get positive once again.  But then we rolled over again to finish the day in the red.  Once again the overall market was stronger than the Dow.  The small stocks are acting better here and that's bullish.  Tomorrow should be a holding pattern waiting on Fridays employment report.  GE was up almost 20 cents.  Volume was nothing special.  No trading ideas here for now.  Gold bounced around a little at the open but finished with a loss of three bucks.  The $1290 level is still holding for now.  The US dollar was higher again and hit the 81.50 level.  Important points in both the gold and dollar market right now.  The XAU was off about a point.  ABX and GG had fractional losses, while NEM was flat on its earnings report.  Volume was summer light.  ABX reports after the bell and GGs numbers will come out in the morning.  I did purchase some ABX October calls on morning weakness today.  So we'll see what happens.  Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well.  The summation index continues lower.  We have yet to see a significant decline yet in the major stock averages.  However the fact that we haven't been able to get above the zero line in the McClellan oscillator for the past couple of weeks is a concern.  Getting oversold on the Dow short term technicals but not there yet.  Gold held up OK today despite what could have been viewed as bad news.  The gold shares are mid-range the technicals and could go either way here.  We'll see how ABX and GG react to their earnings and take it from there.  As always we'll keep an eye on the overnight action as well.  I'd expect a quiet Thursday on tap.

Once again a mixed picture as the Dow fell 70 points on better volume.  The advance/declines were negative but not as much as a down 70 market would indicate.  The NASDAQ only dropped 2 points.  Tomorrow should be interesting as we get GDP and the Fed.  The summation index is still moving lower and until that turns around we won't see any sustained rallies.  The Dow closed on its low for the day and that isn't bullish.  The TRAN has been in decline the past five days as well.  Perhaps this is the start of a long awaited correction for the stock market.  GE was off another 1/8 and has been in decline for a couple of weeks.  Oversold here and below the 200 day moving average.  Those are not bullish signs.  Gold was off five bucks on the futures as the US dollar continues higher.  If the dollar can break through the 81.50 level, there would be no more upside resistance.  That would not be supportive for the price of gold.  It also would not be good news for stocks in general.  The XAU was off 1/3.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume.  I canceled the open order for the October ABX calls.  NEM reports after the bell and that should influence what happens tomorrow morning for the major gold shares.  Toss in the GDP report and the Fed rate announcement and you've got the recipe for an interesting trading session.  Then we get the earnings for ABX and GG on Thursday.  So depending on what happens in the morning tomorrow, that will determine if I get the gold share calls before the earnings announcement.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The Bollinger bands on the major stock indices are contracting.  This action implies a big move is coming up soon.  It doesn't predict the direction of the move though.  We should know soon enough.  Volatility has picked up.  It is probably prudent to be cautious at the moment.  I still think things could go either way.  Despite the recent rise in the US dollar, gold has still held above its 50 day moving average and the $1290 level on a closing basis.  If we violate this area, it could spell trouble for the bulls.  The technicals here are short term oversold.  The gold share technicals are still mid-range.  If we get a strong GDP number and some hawkish tone out of the Fed, it will not be a good day for gold.  But we will have to wait and see what the numbers are.  I'm still a believer in the October gold share calls.  Timing of the purchase is the question that needs a correct answer.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight action.  Tomorrow will be interesting and that much I'm sure of.

A mixed bag again to start the week as the Dow gained 22 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The NASDAQ was lower and the S&P 500 barely managed a slight gain.  The summation index continues lower.  Plenty of economic data out this week including 2nd quarter GDP and the employment report.  Plus we have a Fed announcement on Wednesday.  I guess just about anything can happen.  What will happen, I don't know.  I do know that as long as the summation index is heading lower, it will be hard for the market to have an extended rally.  GE was off almost 1/4 and the volume was pretty good for the summer.  With GE in a decline it is a surprise to see the overall market holding up here.  Gold was flat on the day as was the US dollar.  The XAU was up over 1/2.  ABX was flat, GG up 1/4 and NEM rose 1/2.  Volume was light.  NEM will report its earnings after the bell tomorrow.  I did place an order for some October ABX calls today.  It wasn't filled and I have left it open overnight.  I think that I am going to try and get some ABX or GG calls before the earnings come out on Thursday.  That is the plan at the moment.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  Tough call on the stock market right here in my opinion.  I'm going to sit on the sidelines with regards to the OEX for now.  The technicals for the major stock indices are about mid-range.  The October gold share calls will be the next trade.  I should be purchasing some calls tomorrow or Wednesday if all goes to plan.  This is one of those trades that I will know pretty quickly whether or not its going to work.  The short term technicals for ABX are more oversold than overbought.  I'm sticking with the idea of the month of October option series.  So we'll see what happens.

To the downside to end the week as the Dow fell 123 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  Are we about to really head lower here?  The summation index continues to the downside and has not been able to turn around.  The McClellan oscillator could not make it back above the zero line.  The stock indices are overbought on a short and medium term basis.  However, no uptrend lines have been violated.  But we are in the seasonally weak time period.  I am not sure exactly what to make of things but I'm going to lean back towards the negative side going forward.  GE was off 1/8 and is now below its 200 day moving average.  If GE is the leader, then we know which way stocks are headed.  Gold bounced $12 on the futures and more in the aftermarket despite a rise in the US dollar.  The XAU gained 3 points.  ABX and NEM rose 1/3, while GG added a point.  Volume was OK for the summer.  It looks like yesterday could have been the day to get the gold share calls.  I don't know if todays strength was just positioning for the weekend or the start of something bigger.  Considering we are coming off an oversold short term technical condition here, this could be the time to purchase the calls.  Earnings due next week as well, which makes things interesting.  Patience may not be the proper course of action now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Things did pick up a bit today for the stock market as far as volatility goes.  But we are in a tricky time period as the slowness of the summer can rear its head at any time.  I have to take into consideration the decline in the summation index, which is usually pretty reliable.  Perhaps the OEX puts are the right idea at the moment.  Gold was able to hold its 50 day moving average and the gold shares had a nice bounce.  After the big decline last week we haven't seen any follow through to the downside.  Maybe its time for the gold share calls.  I really have a lot to think about over the weekend.  There are plenty of charts to go over and decisions to be made.  The trading is never easy.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

Another mixed session as the Dow fell 2 points on better volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  We bounced around a bit today in a narrow trading range.  Waiting on the next catalyst one way or the other.  The summer doldrums are in effect.  The summation index is still heading lower.  We are back to short term overbought on some of the major stock indices.  I think that a wait and see approach is the proper call at this time.  GE was flat and the volume was very light.  Still hanging in there at the 200 day moving average.  Gold fell today, the futures lost over ten bucks.  The US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU dropped 1 3/4.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on better volume.  These issues are now short term oversold.  Perhaps it is time to consider the October calls here.  However I am going to at least wait until next week to decide.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Sideways since the beginning of the month for the large cap indices.  It seems as if everyone is still waiting for the next decline.  It will occur when everybody is bullish.  Earnings are the main driver for now.  Gold has moved back to its 200 day moving average.  The US dollar is in a rally and that is not bullish for gold.  We also have a lot of geopolitical turmoil around the globe and gold isn't moving higher.  These are not bullish signs for gold at the moment.  Throw in the gold share earnings due next week and we are perhaps at a critical trading juncture.  The October gold share calls remain on my radar.  We'll close out the week tomorrow. 

A mixed bag today as the Dow fell 26 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  Both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ were higher today.  The TRAN continues to make new all time highs.  It just simply looks like higher stock prices are coming.  The summation index hasn't turned around yet but it is on the verge of doing so.  The week so far has the feel of the summer doldrums to it.  It was bound to happen.  More earnings on tap as we move forward.  GE lost 1/8 and now rests on its 200 day moving average.  GE is not participating here and that could spell trouble eventually.  Gold and the US dollar were little changed on the session.  The XAU was off 1/2.  ABX, GG and NEM were all fractionally lower.  Volume has dried up here.  It appears that we are in a holding pattern for gold and the gold shares at the moment.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Light volume and not a lot of movement is the story for now with regards to the stock market.  Barring any unforeseen event, I don't think that a grind higher is impossible.  But I don't think there will be any type of explosion to the upside.  Gold is lightly traded so far this week.  Patience is the key idea here this week.  Summertime has arrived for now.  We'll keep an eye on the after the bell earnings along with the overnight foreign market action. 

Back to the upside as the Dow gained 61 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  You can make your case either way here for the stock indices but I now believe we are heading higher.  The summation index is about to turn around.  The TRAN continues to make new all time highs.  I'm guessing that the earnings coming out will be viewed as positive.  I'll probably wait for the September option cycle to try the OEX puts.  GE was pretty much flat on the day as it tries to hold on to the 200 day moving average.  No trades in GE for now.  Gold lost $7 on the futures as the US dollar was higher on the day.  The XAU was off 1 1/8.  ABX and GG fell 1/4 or so, NEM was up a nickel.  Volume was pretty light.  No interest in buying the gold shares here but no real selling either.  Earnings due next week.  I'm still trying to remain patient with the gold shares for now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Some tech bellwethers report after the close today and that will probably set the tone for tomorrows open.  The big cap stock indices are short term overbought but the small caps (RUT) have room to move higher based on the technicals.  I think that a drift higher for now is in order.  If that does occur on light volume, we then may have a set up for the OEX puts.  However when the summation index dropped recently and prices didn't follow, it leads me to believe that we have just completed a consolidation before moving higher once again.  I could be wrong.  Gold is in a holding pattern for now.  We had a nice run higher.  Then we had a couple of days that wiped out around 40% of the gains.  It looks like things could go either way from here.  Once again, patience is the key here.  We'll watch the earnings in the aftermarket and see what happens overseas later tonight.

A weak start to the week as the Dow fell 48 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index continues lower.  Plenty of earnings on tap as we get that season going in full swing.  The technicals here are mixed for the major averages.  I guess at this point you could make a case for either direction.  However, as long as the summation index is heading down, I would not be all that bullish.  GE was off 1/2 today and the volume was heavy.  This is another reason not to fall in love with stocks at this juncture.  GE is often the bellwether for the overall market.  Gold was up $4 on the futures as the US dollar was flat.  The XAU was flat as well but did come off of its lows.  ABX, GG and NEM all had slight fractional losses on very light volume.  Mixed technicals here as well.  I'm still considering the October gold share calls.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Once again the summation index has headed lower and stocks have just moved sideways.  It could set things up for higher prices but I don't think it would be a huge move forward.  I was looking at the August OEX puts as a possible next trade.  But I will need to see overbought technical conditions first.  Volatility has picked up lately but the summer doldrums can return at any time.  Patience is sometimes required in the game and that is what I think is needed right now for the gold shares.  Plenty of time before October and that is the month that I've chosen for the calls here.  Earnings due in less than 2 weeks.  Unless something drastically changes here, I will probably wait on purchasing the options.  We'll see what happens overnight and go from there.

Well, so much for a quiet summer.  The Dow came back today, up 123 points on lighter volume for expiration Friday.  The advance/declines were over 4 to 1 positive.  Volatility has returned as it has been a crazy couple of days.  What's it all mean is the question to be answered.  I wish I knew.  The summation index continues lower but we have really only moved sideways in the major stock indices.  I'm beginning to think that the August OEX puts are not going to be a good idea.  Oh I've got plenty of time to change my mind again.  We will really have to see how the breadth goes from here.  If it remains weak as it has been lately, then the puts may work.  If not, we could be going back to all time highs again.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume was heavy.  GE did move off of its lows as the earnings report wasn't greeted especially well.  Not sure what that means going forward.  Gold backed off $7 on the futures but came off of its lows as well.  The US dollar ended little changed and is short term overbought.  The XAU only fell 1/2.  ABX and NEM were flat, while GG had a fractional loss.  Volume was light.  The gold shares began the day lower and then found buyers for the remainder of the session.  I'm still looking at the October gold share calls which have three months of time now left on them.  ABX is the recent out performer of the big 3.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The small stock out performed today and that is a plus.  The coming days will tell if this was just an oversold bounce or the beginning of the next leg up.  Plus it is hard to say how much of todays price action was expiration related.  I'll check the charts over the weekend.  Gold started the week lower but did manage a comeback.  The question is where would gold be if that plane hadn't been shot down?  The gold shares are doing pretty good regardless.  The gold shares are overbought on the weekly charts and the earnings are due in less than two weeks.  So some more thought will have to be put in on exactly what to do here.  Plenty of things to think about over the weekend.  The trading is always a challenge and that is something that remains a constant.  It's a summer Friday afternoon and time for a break.

It was a downer of a day as a passenger plane was shot down over the Ukraine.  The Dow fell 161 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues lower.  The breadth weakness still remains regardless of the geopolitical events.  The stock indices are now oversold but I would not be a buyer here.  We are very oversold on the McClellan oscillator but the tone of things here is beginning to change.  I am still looking to get August OEX puts on a snap back.  Seasonality suggests that lower prices are in the future.  GE gave back 3/8 today and the volume was average.  Earnings tomorrow and that may set the tone for the overall market action.  Gold was up $17 on the futures today and made its move after the plane crash.  The US dollar did not see the same flight to safety and was little changed on the session.  The XAU rose 2 1/2.  ABX up 1/3, GG added 3/4 and NEM gained 1/4.  Volume was OK here.  The gold shares are already bouncing off of the oversold level and perhaps they are ready to take off again.  I'm still going to be patient here though.  Mentally I'm pretty tired as it has been a long day for me.  The price action today was indeed negative but we will have to see if it is just a knee jerk reaction to the plane crash.  Even so, I think a more defensive posture will be the proper attitude.  Gold remains interesting in my mind.  The October gold share calls may still be the next trade.  Expiration Friday tomorrow so we'll have to see how it all plays out.

The Dow climbed 77 points today on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The Dow is the leader here and that generally isn't considered bullish.  The small stocks continue to lag.  The transports however, continue to make new all time high prices.  Back to short term overbought on the major index technicals.  The Bollinger bands on the S&P 500 are converging, which suggests a big move is coming.  I'm still considering the August OEX puts.  GE was up 3/8 on very good volume today.  Perhaps someone knows about the earnings ahead of time.  That's not to say that the game is rigged.  Some are better informed than others.  Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures and is trying to stabilize.  The US dollar was up on the session.  The XAU was up around 1 1/2.  ABX, GG and NEM were all higher by around 1/2.  Volume was good for ABX, average for the others.  ABX announced a management change today and it was viewed favorably.  I'm still interested in the gold share calls.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The summation index continues lower but we have only seen sideways action in prices, not an actual decline.  The breadth is deteriorating here and that is not a good sign.  But if we take out the highs in the major stock indexes on good volume, my idea for the August puts isn't going to work.  The good move for GE today could be a sign of things to come.  It's a tough game.  Gold has had a huge move lower so far this week.  There is no rush to get the gold share calls.  I'm still thinking about taking the position ahead of the earnings due on the 31st.  Getting short term oversold on these issues.  But patience could be the key idea for now with regards to the gold shares.  Always plenty to consider.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Some volatility today but the Dow finished the day up 5 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues lower.  The market didn't like what it heard from Janet Yellen the Fed head today.  The overall market was much weaker than the Dow.  I'm still hoping to see some sort of light volume rally this week, in order to set up an OEX August put trade.  Once again the breadth here is staring to deteriorate.  Caution is still advised if you're thinking of getting long.  GE was off a nickel and the volume was pretty good.  Earnings are due on Friday and they will probably set the tone for that day.  Gold followed through to the downside as the futures fell another ten bucks.  The US dollar was higher today.  The XAU dropped 3 points.  Uptrend lines have been broken and now it is a rush to the exits.  This type of action will most likely allow me to try the October gold share calls in the coming weeks.  ABX off 1/2, GG down 3/4 and NEM shed 2/3.  Volume was good.  My thinking is to get some calls at the 50% retracement level prior to the earnings reports due at the end of this month.  Getting short term oversold here in a hurry.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I do believe that the market is running out of steam here.  I could be wrong.  The TRAN closed at a new all time high today.  However the small stocks are lagging as of late and that is not a bullish sign.  A top could be in the process of forming.  As long as the summation index is moving lower, I'd still err on the side of lower prices coming.  Gold is heading lower and rapidly.  I'd expect some kind of consolidation soon.  Good seasonality is approaching for August and September.  Plus the mining shares have outperformed the metal and that is bullish.  A little more patience here and then buying the October gold share calls should be in order.  But you really never can be sure of anything in this game.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments and see what happens tomorrow.

To the upside as the Dow gained 111 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were about 2 to 1 positive.  No reason for the advance with the exception of an oversold market.  We've also got the positive expiration week bias in effect.  I'm still looking at the August OEX puts though.  A nice light volume levitation week would be in order.  We've got the Fed head speaking on capital hill for the next couple of days and that could move things.  I'd like to let this week pass before taking on any trades.  GE was up 1/8 but the volume was light and it came off of the highs.  No trades here for now.  Gold got rocked to the downside today as the futures lost $30 on the session.  The US dollar was flat.  No explanation here why gold dropped today, nothing in the world has changed over the weekend.  The market moves when and where it wants.  Perhaps gold is anticipating some bearish comments from the Fed but that is unknown right now.  The XAU fell 2 3/4.  ABX, GG and NEM all dropped around 1/2.  That wasn't bad considering the drop in gold.  Volume was light.  If the gold shares get oversold, I'm going to try the October calls.  Hasn't happened yet.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I don't think that todays price action will turn around the summation index.  We'll need to see some more upside for that to occur.  Stocks continue to attract money but that condition won't last forever.  I am seeing weaker breadth now on the rallies and that will be a precursor to lower prices in my opinion.  It is subtle for now but that will change.  I would advise caution for anybody considering getting long the stock indices here.  Gold had a huge move lower today and has broken the near term uptrend line.  The gold shares continue to do better relative to gold and that is longer term bullish.  Earnings for the gold shares are due at the end of the month.  I'd like to have a call position before then.  We'll see.  We'll watch the overnight action for positive follow through in the foreign markets and go from there.

The Dow hung in there today as it gained 28 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  It was a good sign that we didn't continue lower but the summation index is still heading down.  With expiration week coming up, I think that things will stay together for now.  But I am looking at August and September OEX puts.  The ideal scenario is a light volume rally next week to set up the August OEX puts.  The market rarely cooperates though.  The short term technicals are oversold for the small stocks, not so much so for the large caps.  GE had a really good day, up 1/3 on OK volume.  That should lead to higher prices in the short term for the overall market if GE is once again the leader.  Earnings are due here in a week.  Gold finished the session little changed as was the US dollar.  The gold shares reversed back to the upside after yesterdays downside reversal.  There is no stopping the gold shares so it seems.  Money buys every dip.  The XAU rose 2 1/3.  Overbought and staying there.  ABX up 3/4, while GG and NEM rose 1/2.  Volume was good.  I just can't bring myself to purchase the calls here because the technicals are so overbought.  Not to mention that the CRB index has actually broken down so there isn't any imminent inflation about to occur.  But you cannot argue with price.  Money and volume are also flowing here.  Plus gold is not getting a lot of press so it probably has further to go on the upside.  But the XAU has risen 20% in a little over a month.  Some sort of pause would seem to be in order.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  As usual with the stock market it is always the question of where are we going?  The small stocks didn't have a good week and that could be a clue to the future.  Or not, if things turn around back to the upside next week.  It's never easy.  Earnings season is about to get under way and you never really know what the reaction to the numbers will be.  Plus it's the summer and things could grind to a halt as well.  I'll check things out over the weekend and try and determine the next course of action.  Gold continued higher but it was really the gold shares that have made the most progress lately.  That is bullish going forward.  But the gold shares are both short and medium term overbought and I really do not want to chase them.  I've already missed out on some decent profits.  I get the feeling that if I buy the October calls now that the gold shares will start to take the rest that they need.  Obviously my confidence is not in a good spot.  The weekly charts of ABX, GG and NEM are all on the verge of a major break out.  I would like to be on board for that.  A lot to think about this weekend.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

We opened lower and stayed there for the session as the Dow fell 70 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  There wasn't a chance to get any July OEX puts this morning as it was a down hard open.  But you are getting the idea.  My guess is that things are in the process of change.  Remember the weak start to the year and the implications of that.  Be looking for entry points for OEX puts now.  Expiration week coming up and I'll look for August and September puts going out from here.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume was average.  It looks like GE was once again a sign of things to come.  Pay attention to GE, it will help your trading of the stock indexes.  The gold futures rose $15 on the day, most likely due to the increased tension from the Gaza strip and the report of a troubled bank in Portugal.  These issues didn't help the stock market either.  The US dollar was slightly higher today.  The XAU however lost 2 points as the gold shares had a classic reversal.  They opened the day higher and closed lower.  ABX and GG lost 1/3, while NEM was off a few cents.  Volume was good here and these stocks are overdue for some weakness.  I'm still looking at the October calls for the gold shares as a possible trade in the future.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Tomorrow will be an important session in my mind.  If stocks hang in here, then more time will be taken to build a significant top in my opinion.  If we simply continue lower, then it is possible that a decent top has been put in.  The short term technicals have rolled over for the stock indices.  So we'll see what happens.  No summer doldrums for now.  The gold shares had what looks like a major one day reversal today.  Perhaps this will give us a set up to purchase the October calls.  But there isn't any rush to do anything after todays price action.  The only thing that would change that is if we have a huge up move tomorrow for these stocks.  I don't see that happening but you never know.  Yesterday the foreign markets did not follow the Dow higher.  We'll see what transpires tonight.

Back to the upside today as the Dow gained 79 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The Fed minutes were greeted with buying eventually.  The question now is do I try the OEX puts on a rally to 1975 on the S&P 500 or not?  It is something that I'll consider overnight.  The short term technicals have turned around to the upside and that is something to consider.  No real economic data to trade off of and the summer factor also comes into play.  The McClellan oscillator did bounce form the oversold -100 level today.  GE was off a nickel but the volume was pretty good.  Back below the 50 day moving average here.  Gold was up 8 bucks on the futures and a bit more in the aftermarket.  The US dollar was lower again today.  The XAU gained 2 2/3.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains to the upside with NEM leading the way this time around.  Volume was good and the gold shares have climbed above the recent consolidation.  There is no worse feeling for me than missing a move.  That is what has happened for me with the gold shares.  I am a believer in this move higher and if there is a chance in the future to get the October calls, I will.  But it doesn't look like that's going to happen.  Mentally I'm feeling tired.  Up early and not enough sleep.  I'm considering the July OEX puts tomorrow if we get to the 1975 level on the S&P 500 and stall.  One of my concerns is that I haven't put on a trade in a while and that could be the reason to try this one.  This trade is based more so on the Summation index , which has rolled over.  We also have relative under performance from the small stocks.  One of the problems for this trade is expiration week and its positive bias is almost upon us.  I'll think things over tonight and take it from there.  Gold is overbought and staying there.  It continues to attract capital.  I do not know the reason why.  All I know is that it is happening.  I do not know how long this can continue but it is usually longer than you think.  All I can do at this stage is watch.  We'll see if the overseas markets overnight follow through with the upside action to the Dow.       

Interesting, as the Dow fell 117 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative but not as much as a down 117 point market would suggest.  The McClellan oscillator did give a signal for a significant move on Friday and we got that move today.  That indicator has been working well in that respect lately.  The summation index is now heading lower.  Maybe it is time to look at the OEX puts if we see some upside in the next couple of days.  Only 8 sessions left in the July option cycle though.  Perhaps this will be the next trade.  It is something to ponder.  GE was off 3/8 and the volume increased from yesterday.  On this daily chart we have a break of the up trend line that began in February, a snap back to that line and now a drop again.  Textbook technically so far but is it a precursor for the overall stock market?  Gold was little changed on the futures, rose a few bucks in the aftermarket.  The US dollar was little changed on the day.  The XAU was up 1 1/8 and continues to not sell off.  ABX was up 3/8 and broke out to the upside from its consolidation with good volume.  GG rose almost 1/2, while NEM gained just a few cents.  Volume was OK here.  The gold shares are out performing and there has been no move lower.  NEM is the laggard here.  It is very tempting to just get long the gold shares here but I just can't bring myself to do it.  I will have to see some kind of downside first.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A couple days lower for the stock indices with the small stocks leading the way.  The indication is bearish.  I am considering trying the OEX puts for July in the next couple of days if we see some consolidation or upside.  I could be wrong.  A move back to the 1975 level in the S&P 500 will get my attention to attempt the trade.  We'll see.  Gold and the gold shares remain interesting to me because their relative strength here has been very good.  We haven't seen this for quite some time.  It is as if they are not giving you a chance to participate on the long side.  The charts remain overbought and are staying there.  I'll of course keep an eye on things here but it could simply be an opportunity missed.  We'll keep an eye out for the Fed minutes tomorrow but it is really a week without much economic data due out.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

A down day to start the post holiday week as the Dow fell 44 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  Still overbought here as one day of selling isn't a trend.  No real reasons for the activity today as nothing has really changed.  Technically overbought on most levels and all up trend lines remain in place.  Light trading should dominate from here until the end of summer barring some unforeseen event.  The small stocks are extremely overbought on some indices, hence the under performance of RUT today.  Could it be a sign of things to come?  Hasn't yet.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume was light.  Gold didn't do much on the day and neither did the US dollar.  The XAU was off 1 1/2.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses.  Volume was good for ABX, light for the others.  Yes, I still like the idea of the October gold share calls.  I need to see the technicals get to oversold though and we are no where near that yet.  Gold has held up pretty good after the run up though.  That leads me to believe that higher prices are in the future.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Not much else to report about todays price action.  Slipping from all time highs and there is no reason for concern at the moment.  However let's not forget the negative January price action for the stock indexes and what that implies down the road.  OEX puts are going to make sense at some point I believe as well.  The gold shares under performed today and that is a negative looking ahead.  Still plenty of geo-political turmoil in the world though.  I think it would be prudent to wait for some type of pullback in the gold shares.  But it may be wise to own the gold share calls before the earnings releases at the end of the month.  As usual plenty of questions in the game with no easy answers.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments and get ready for Tuesday.

In a holiday shortened session the Dow rose 92 points on very light volume.  The advance/declines were positive but not as much as an up 92 market would project.  The employment report was cheered as we expected yesterday.  When the market is in a bull mode, everything has a positive spin to it.  It's not a bad thing and we'll enjoy the ride.  However the volume once again is lacking and some sort of pause is overdue.  GE gapped up 1/4 and the volume was light.  On the move higher here and we'll have to see if it is for real or just a snap back to the broken uptrend line.  Gold fell $10 on the futures as the US dollar was higher on the day.  Gold did come off of the lows of the session though as buyers remain evident.  The gold shares did not follow gold lower as the XAU added 1/8.  ABX was up a dime, while GG and NEM had fractional losses.  Volume was light.  I would really like to see some extended decline for the gold shares in the next couple of weeks to get positioned in the October calls.  However the strength in the gold shares at these levels cannot be denied.  Just like the overall stock market, buyers are coming in on the dips.  It is not a good idea to go against that trend.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It seems like it is just up, up and away for the stock indexes.  The Dow reached 17000 for the first time today.  There is no overhead resistance.  The summation index has been trending higher but it hasn't had huge gaps higher.  The general public isn't enamored with the stock market even at these levels.  That tells me we have higher to go.  When everybody is out there talking about how great the market is, that will be the time to get worried.  We are not there yet and it may take years.  That doesn't mean I don't think that we will see some extended downside action in the autumn.  I do.  But that should set things up for the next leg higher.  Gold has stalled in the past two weeks after a two week run up.  The gold shares continue to out perform and that is a positive.  It may simply be that I have missed this trade to the upside.  The US dollar was higher this week and that is not supportive for gold.  But the dollar hasn't closed above the 50 week moving average yet, so the jury is still out there.  A long weekend coming up and then only two weeks left in the July option cycle.  I'll be checking the charts and trying to come up with a game plan going forward.  For now it's Thursday afternoon and time for a break.

A wait and see session after yesterdays stellar gains.  The Dow rose 20 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The technical condition of the market hasn't changed.  Overbought and staying there.  We'll get the employment report tomorrow ahead of a long summer holiday weekend.  We'll see what happens.  GE was up almost 1/4 but the volume was light.  Slightly back above the 50 day moving average here.  Gold was up a buck on the futures as the US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU rose 1 3/8.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on light volume.  I would really prefer to see the gold shares drop back before trying the October calls.  However the market rarely does what you'd like it to.  I may just have to chalk this up to another missed opportunity and look elsewhere for the next trade.  Mentally I'm feeling tired.  Not much else to report really.  The trend in the stock indices remains up.  There is nothing on the horizon to think that the rally can't go on.  Perhaps things will run up into the July expiration and then we'll see where we go from there.  There seems to be plenty of liquidity to go around.  Gold has found buyers.  We never got the snap back return to the near term broken down trend line.  The gold shares went back to out performance today and that is bullish.  Declines are being bought here now and that is the opposite of the preceding price action.  It looks like patience did not pay off this time around.  Tomorrows employment report will key the trading for the day.  It seems like no matter what the result, the market will find a way to view it as bullish.  It is that kind of game for now.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight action and go from there.

A jump to start off the month of July as the Dow rose 129 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  I expected a quiet market and was wrong.  Money flows came in much more than I anticipated.  More new all time highs for the major stock indices.  There is no overhead resistance.  The summation index continues higher.  There seems to be no stopping the market from continuing higher.  Still overbought all the way around.  GE was up 1/8 and the volume was average for summer.  I still have no trades in mind here near term.  Gold was up a few bucks on the futures as the US dollar was flat on the session.  The XAU was off 7/8.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume.  The gold shares didn't follow the market higher today for a change.  I'm still a believer in the October gold share calls and I am still trying to be patient.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  What more can you say about this market?  It just keeps moving on.  I still think that it won't end well when it does end but you cannot argue with price.  A summer rally is in place.  How high it gets is anybodies guess.  We'll see how things go after the employment report on Thursday.  Gold is overbought as well but that doesn't mean that it cannot go higher.  I would have expected to see more beginning of the month and quarter money flow into there but that was not the case.  Also today did not see the gold shares have good relative strength vs. the movement in gold itself.  It may or may not mean anything but we'll find out in the days ahead.  I would wait until after the holiday weekend to take on any trading positions.  Obviously it is too late for any index calls.  We'll see if the foreign markets follow the Dow higher and go from there.