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Monday, July 14, 2014

To the upside as the Dow gained 111 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were about 2 to 1 positive.  No reason for the advance with the exception of an oversold market.  We've also got the positive expiration week bias in effect.  I'm still looking at the August OEX puts though.  A nice light volume levitation week would be in order.  We've got the Fed head speaking on capital hill for the next couple of days and that could move things.  I'd like to let this week pass before taking on any trades.  GE was up 1/8 but the volume was light and it came off of the highs.  No trades here for now.  Gold got rocked to the downside today as the futures lost $30 on the session.  The US dollar was flat.  No explanation here why gold dropped today, nothing in the world has changed over the weekend.  The market moves when and where it wants.  Perhaps gold is anticipating some bearish comments from the Fed but that is unknown right now.  The XAU fell 2 3/4.  ABX, GG and NEM all dropped around 1/2.  That wasn't bad considering the drop in gold.  Volume was light.  If the gold shares get oversold, I'm going to try the October calls.  Hasn't happened yet.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I don't think that todays price action will turn around the summation index.  We'll need to see some more upside for that to occur.  Stocks continue to attract money but that condition won't last forever.  I am seeing weaker breadth now on the rallies and that will be a precursor to lower prices in my opinion.  It is subtle for now but that will change.  I would advise caution for anybody considering getting long the stock indices here.  Gold had a huge move lower today and has broken the near term uptrend line.  The gold shares continue to do better relative to gold and that is longer term bullish.  Earnings for the gold shares are due at the end of the month.  I'd like to have a call position before then.  We'll see.  We'll watch the overnight action for positive follow through in the foreign markets and go from there.

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