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Friday, July 11, 2014

The Dow hung in there today as it gained 28 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  It was a good sign that we didn't continue lower but the summation index is still heading down.  With expiration week coming up, I think that things will stay together for now.  But I am looking at August and September OEX puts.  The ideal scenario is a light volume rally next week to set up the August OEX puts.  The market rarely cooperates though.  The short term technicals are oversold for the small stocks, not so much so for the large caps.  GE had a really good day, up 1/3 on OK volume.  That should lead to higher prices in the short term for the overall market if GE is once again the leader.  Earnings are due here in a week.  Gold finished the session little changed as was the US dollar.  The gold shares reversed back to the upside after yesterdays downside reversal.  There is no stopping the gold shares so it seems.  Money buys every dip.  The XAU rose 2 1/3.  Overbought and staying there.  ABX up 3/4, while GG and NEM rose 1/2.  Volume was good.  I just can't bring myself to purchase the calls here because the technicals are so overbought.  Not to mention that the CRB index has actually broken down so there isn't any imminent inflation about to occur.  But you cannot argue with price.  Money and volume are also flowing here.  Plus gold is not getting a lot of press so it probably has further to go on the upside.  But the XAU has risen 20% in a little over a month.  Some sort of pause would seem to be in order.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  As usual with the stock market it is always the question of where are we going?  The small stocks didn't have a good week and that could be a clue to the future.  Or not, if things turn around back to the upside next week.  It's never easy.  Earnings season is about to get under way and you never really know what the reaction to the numbers will be.  Plus it's the summer and things could grind to a halt as well.  I'll check things out over the weekend and try and determine the next course of action.  Gold continued higher but it was really the gold shares that have made the most progress lately.  That is bullish going forward.  But the gold shares are both short and medium term overbought and I really do not want to chase them.  I've already missed out on some decent profits.  I get the feeling that if I buy the October calls now that the gold shares will start to take the rest that they need.  Obviously my confidence is not in a good spot.  The weekly charts of ABX, GG and NEM are all on the verge of a major break out.  I would like to be on board for that.  A lot to think about this weekend.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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