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Wednesday, July 09, 2014

Back to the upside today as the Dow gained 79 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The Fed minutes were greeted with buying eventually.  The question now is do I try the OEX puts on a rally to 1975 on the S&P 500 or not?  It is something that I'll consider overnight.  The short term technicals have turned around to the upside and that is something to consider.  No real economic data to trade off of and the summer factor also comes into play.  The McClellan oscillator did bounce form the oversold -100 level today.  GE was off a nickel but the volume was pretty good.  Back below the 50 day moving average here.  Gold was up 8 bucks on the futures and a bit more in the aftermarket.  The US dollar was lower again today.  The XAU gained 2 2/3.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains to the upside with NEM leading the way this time around.  Volume was good and the gold shares have climbed above the recent consolidation.  There is no worse feeling for me than missing a move.  That is what has happened for me with the gold shares.  I am a believer in this move higher and if there is a chance in the future to get the October calls, I will.  But it doesn't look like that's going to happen.  Mentally I'm feeling tired.  Up early and not enough sleep.  I'm considering the July OEX puts tomorrow if we get to the 1975 level on the S&P 500 and stall.  One of my concerns is that I haven't put on a trade in a while and that could be the reason to try this one.  This trade is based more so on the Summation index , which has rolled over.  We also have relative under performance from the small stocks.  One of the problems for this trade is expiration week and its positive bias is almost upon us.  I'll think things over tonight and take it from there.  Gold is overbought and staying there.  It continues to attract capital.  I do not know the reason why.  All I know is that it is happening.  I do not know how long this can continue but it is usually longer than you think.  All I can do at this stage is watch.  We'll see if the overseas markets overnight follow through with the upside action to the Dow.       

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