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Friday, July 25, 2014

To the downside to end the week as the Dow fell 123 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  Are we about to really head lower here?  The summation index continues to the downside and has not been able to turn around.  The McClellan oscillator could not make it back above the zero line.  The stock indices are overbought on a short and medium term basis.  However, no uptrend lines have been violated.  But we are in the seasonally weak time period.  I am not sure exactly what to make of things but I'm going to lean back towards the negative side going forward.  GE was off 1/8 and is now below its 200 day moving average.  If GE is the leader, then we know which way stocks are headed.  Gold bounced $12 on the futures and more in the aftermarket despite a rise in the US dollar.  The XAU gained 3 points.  ABX and NEM rose 1/3, while GG added a point.  Volume was OK for the summer.  It looks like yesterday could have been the day to get the gold share calls.  I don't know if todays strength was just positioning for the weekend or the start of something bigger.  Considering we are coming off an oversold short term technical condition here, this could be the time to purchase the calls.  Earnings due next week as well, which makes things interesting.  Patience may not be the proper course of action now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Things did pick up a bit today for the stock market as far as volatility goes.  But we are in a tricky time period as the slowness of the summer can rear its head at any time.  I have to take into consideration the decline in the summation index, which is usually pretty reliable.  Perhaps the OEX puts are the right idea at the moment.  Gold was able to hold its 50 day moving average and the gold shares had a nice bounce.  After the big decline last week we haven't seen any follow through to the downside.  Maybe its time for the gold share calls.  I really have a lot to think about over the weekend.  There are plenty of charts to go over and decisions to be made.  The trading is never easy.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

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