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Tuesday, July 15, 2014

Some volatility today but the Dow finished the day up 5 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues lower.  The market didn't like what it heard from Janet Yellen the Fed head today.  The overall market was much weaker than the Dow.  I'm still hoping to see some sort of light volume rally this week, in order to set up an OEX August put trade.  Once again the breadth here is staring to deteriorate.  Caution is still advised if you're thinking of getting long.  GE was off a nickel and the volume was pretty good.  Earnings are due on Friday and they will probably set the tone for that day.  Gold followed through to the downside as the futures fell another ten bucks.  The US dollar was higher today.  The XAU dropped 3 points.  Uptrend lines have been broken and now it is a rush to the exits.  This type of action will most likely allow me to try the October gold share calls in the coming weeks.  ABX off 1/2, GG down 3/4 and NEM shed 2/3.  Volume was good.  My thinking is to get some calls at the 50% retracement level prior to the earnings reports due at the end of this month.  Getting short term oversold here in a hurry.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I do believe that the market is running out of steam here.  I could be wrong.  The TRAN closed at a new all time high today.  However the small stocks are lagging as of late and that is not a bullish sign.  A top could be in the process of forming.  As long as the summation index is moving lower, I'd still err on the side of lower prices coming.  Gold is heading lower and rapidly.  I'd expect some kind of consolidation soon.  Good seasonality is approaching for August and September.  Plus the mining shares have outperformed the metal and that is bullish.  A little more patience here and then buying the October gold share calls should be in order.  But you really never can be sure of anything in this game.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments and see what happens tomorrow.

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