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Tuesday, July 08, 2014

Interesting, as the Dow fell 117 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative but not as much as a down 117 point market would suggest.  The McClellan oscillator did give a signal for a significant move on Friday and we got that move today.  That indicator has been working well in that respect lately.  The summation index is now heading lower.  Maybe it is time to look at the OEX puts if we see some upside in the next couple of days.  Only 8 sessions left in the July option cycle though.  Perhaps this will be the next trade.  It is something to ponder.  GE was off 3/8 and the volume increased from yesterday.  On this daily chart we have a break of the up trend line that began in February, a snap back to that line and now a drop again.  Textbook technically so far but is it a precursor for the overall stock market?  Gold was little changed on the futures, rose a few bucks in the aftermarket.  The US dollar was little changed on the day.  The XAU was up 1 1/8 and continues to not sell off.  ABX was up 3/8 and broke out to the upside from its consolidation with good volume.  GG rose almost 1/2, while NEM gained just a few cents.  Volume was OK here.  The gold shares are out performing and there has been no move lower.  NEM is the laggard here.  It is very tempting to just get long the gold shares here but I just can't bring myself to do it.  I will have to see some kind of downside first.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A couple days lower for the stock indices with the small stocks leading the way.  The indication is bearish.  I am considering trying the OEX puts for July in the next couple of days if we see some consolidation or upside.  I could be wrong.  A move back to the 1975 level in the S&P 500 will get my attention to attempt the trade.  We'll see.  Gold and the gold shares remain interesting to me because their relative strength here has been very good.  We haven't seen this for quite some time.  It is as if they are not giving you a chance to participate on the long side.  The charts remain overbought and are staying there.  I'll of course keep an eye on things here but it could simply be an opportunity missed.  We'll keep an eye out for the Fed minutes tomorrow but it is really a week without much economic data due out.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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