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Thursday, July 17, 2014

It was a downer of a day as a passenger plane was shot down over the Ukraine.  The Dow fell 161 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues lower.  The breadth weakness still remains regardless of the geopolitical events.  The stock indices are now oversold but I would not be a buyer here.  We are very oversold on the McClellan oscillator but the tone of things here is beginning to change.  I am still looking to get August OEX puts on a snap back.  Seasonality suggests that lower prices are in the future.  GE gave back 3/8 today and the volume was average.  Earnings tomorrow and that may set the tone for the overall market action.  Gold was up $17 on the futures today and made its move after the plane crash.  The US dollar did not see the same flight to safety and was little changed on the session.  The XAU rose 2 1/2.  ABX up 1/3, GG added 3/4 and NEM gained 1/4.  Volume was OK here.  The gold shares are already bouncing off of the oversold level and perhaps they are ready to take off again.  I'm still going to be patient here though.  Mentally I'm pretty tired as it has been a long day for me.  The price action today was indeed negative but we will have to see if it is just a knee jerk reaction to the plane crash.  Even so, I think a more defensive posture will be the proper attitude.  Gold remains interesting in my mind.  The October gold share calls may still be the next trade.  Expiration Friday tomorrow so we'll have to see how it all plays out.

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