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Wednesday, August 06, 2014

A waiting game today as the Dow rose 14 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  We did not continue lower today and that is a positive for the bulls.  I did place an order this morning for the August OEX calls but canceled it later in the session.  I still think that this trade could work and may try again tomorrow.  The summation index continues lower.  Only seven days left in the August option cycle, so any trade will have to be short term in nature.  I still like the September OEX puts on a relatively longer term basis.  GE was up 3/8 and the volume was good.  GE led the way down so it figures to now lead the way back up.  It is another reason to potentially try the August OEX call trade.  Gold rallied today as the futures rose over $20.  The US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU gained 2 points.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on better volume.  My October ABX calls are now slightly in the red.  Perhaps this is the beginning of a leg up in gold.  Time will tell on that.  The volume on the gold shares was good and that is bullish.  The US dollar is also at resistance so perhaps it will be turned back down here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  To trade or not to trade here is the question at the moment.  The risk is elevated since the time is running out for the August cycle.  There is a positive divergence on the McClellan oscillator.  The short term technicals are oversold for the major stock indices.  So maybe I'll try the calls tomorrow.  The gold shares acted better today but one day doesn't make a trend.  There has been very little of the summer doldrums so far this year.  We'll keep an eye on things overnight as usual and see what tomorrow brings.

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