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Wednesday, August 20, 2014

And the beat goes on.  The Dow rose 59 points today on light volume.  The advance/declines were about even.  The Dow was stronger than the overall market and that usually isn't bullish.  However the way things have been going lately, that may not matter.  It seems as though there are no sellers.  The summation index continues to the upside.  I did move up to a closer to the money strike price on the September OEX puts but I did not yet sell the other puts that I already own.  This increases the leverage and the risk.  I should sell the earlier position tomorrow to be on the safe side.  If their is anything safe about trading options.  The major stock indices appear poised to hit new all time highs.  I'm still not a believer in light volume rallies but perhaps I am wrong.  GE is leading the way and gained 1/3 today on OK volume.  GE led the way down and is now leading the way back up.  It is something to keep an eye on.  Gold was off another couple of bucks on the futures but the US dollar had another strong session.  The dollar has broken trough some long term resistance and the trend is up.  The XAU was up 1/4.  ABX, GG and NEM were all little changed on light volume.  Considering the move in the dollar, the gold shares held up pretty good.  Not exactly sure what to make of that.  The October ABX calls that I have are still showing a loss.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  All signs point to higher stock prices at this juncture.  The Fed minutes today provided a temporary dip but it didn't last long.  Declines can be bought.  Then why try the OEX puts here?  We are short term overbought.  The second year of the presidents term usually has a decent decline at some point and we haven't seen anything like that yet.  The rally from the recent lows is on very weak volume.  There is plenty of time in the September option cycle for this trade to work.  Gold is still going nowhere.  It is a surprise that we haven't seen some kind of actual decline there.  Perhaps the seasonal positive tendency will prevail.  We'll see if the European markets can get headed back to the upside tonight. 

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