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Monday, August 18, 2014

The market screamed to the upside today as the Dow gained 175 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were over 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is heading higher.  Some small stock indices are hitting new recovery highs and that is bullish leading the market here.  Getting short term overbought for the major stock indices.  The trend is now up though.  My September OEX puts are now losers.  The question is whether or not to hold them for now or just take the loss.  The stock indexes act like they want to go to new all time highs.  I'll probably wait to see how the rest of the week shapes up.  But this trade is not acting well.  GE was up 3/8 on summer average volume.  GE got above its 200 day moving average today.  My September puts here are losers as well.  Short term overbought here on the technicals.  We closed on the high of the day as did some of the major averages.  Gold fell around seven bucks on the futures as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU managed a 1/2 point gain.  ABX, GG and NEM all finished the day close to unchanged.  The volume was very light.  There is no interest in gold or the gold shares at the moment.  My October ABX calls are showing a slight loss.  I'll hold these as long as gold does not break below the trading range that it has traveled over the past two months.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  My idea for the September index puts is not looking good at the moment.  With the small stocks leading the way here, we could be in for a decent rally.  Not a lot of economic data out this week.  It's possible we could find ourselves in the summer doldrums after todays huge upside move.  But that's a guess as usual.  The only thing that the September OEX put trade has going for it now is the extra week in the option cycle.  Still waiting for the positive seasonal factors to kick in for gold.  Over halfway through August now and we have yet to see any kind of sustained rally.  The gold shares are holding up for now.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight action and go from there.

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