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Tuesday, August 05, 2014

So much for a quiet week.  The Dow fell 140 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues to decline.  The market needs to hold in here or it will really get ugly.  I think that we will hold up for now.  If I had any guts, I would buy some August OEX calls tomorrow for a short term trade.  But the better idea in my mind is to get some September puts if we see some strength.  The short term technicals are oversold and staying there.  Let's remember that markets go down a lot faster than they go up.  If we see a rally, short it.  If we don't, then it is too late.  GE lost 1/4 and the volume was OK.  Keep an eye on GE.  It is oversold both short and medium term.  It needs to hold in here.  Gold was off a few bucks today as the US dollar closed above the 81.50 level.  Perhaps the dollar will continue to rally on the flight to safety trade now that it has gotten above resistance.  That would not be good for gold.  The XAU managed a 3/4 gain.  ABX was flat, while GG and NEM had fractional gains.  Volume was light.  No interest in the gold shares but at least they didn't decline with the overall market.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Interesting times I must say.  If we don't see some positive action soon, the market will fall apart.  This isn't something that can usually happen but we are getting closer to the zero line in the summation index.  There is a chance that it could occur and that is yet another reason to purchase some OEX September puts.  I do not know if the market will give me a chance to buy them though.  As for the short term, we got the bounce on Monday and today was not positive.  The McClellan oscillator remains very negative and should bounce higher than it has.  I probably won't try the August OEX calls tomorrow.  Make no mistake, the trend is down.  Gold came back a bit in the aftermarket but is simply grinding its way lower.  The gold shares have been moving sideways for almost two months.  It looks like they want to break down.  That would not bode well for my October ABX calls.  They are still in the red.  We'll see how the overseas markets react to todays negative session and go from there.

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