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Friday, August 01, 2014

Trying to stabilize today as the Dow fell 70 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were less than 2 to 1 negative.  The employment report came in a bit less than expected but the technicals are what we need to keep an eye on for now.  The summation index is heading lower.  Blown out to the downside on the indicators here.  A decent bounce is the next expectation.  Will it be worth the risk to trade it?  Maybe.  Two weeks to go in the August option cycle.  However a bounce is all it should be as uptrend lines have been violated and the nature of the game has changed for now.  GE turned around and was higher by 20 cents on good volume.  GE led the way down and now is giving a clue as to what to expect next in the near term.  Gold recouped $12 on the futures as the US dollar was slightly lower today.  The XAU was up about 2/3.  ABX, GG and NEM had fractional gains on summer average volume.  The technicals here for the gold shares are mixed.  My October ABX calls are still slightly in the red.  I guess I'll hold on to them for now.  I'm viewing the past month here as a consolidation from the rise in June.  If that is correct, we should once again move higher in the weeks to come.  I could be wrong.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Quite a week as we saw the first major daily decline in a while.  I think that there will be more to come.  Let us not forget the January weakness and what that usually means for the market.  But in the near term, I'll consider getting some August OEX calls on Monday for a bounce next week.  It's risky but the rise in GE today combined with very oversold short term conditions may make it a good idea.  We'll see.  I really don't see any catalysts for the price of gold one way or the other.  Perhaps the rise in the US dollar will stall out here at the 81.50 level.  The Bollinger bands are starting to contract on the weekly gold chart, so a big move will eventually be coming there.  No doubt before the October ABX calls that I now have expire.  Which way gold goes is the question but we are in a favorable seasonal period there.  Plenty of charts and things to consider over this weekend.  But for now it is Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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