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Thursday, September 04, 2014

A minor one day reversal in the Dow as it opened higher and closed lower.  The most watched index lost 8 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  We did come up from the lows of the session.  The TRAN did make it to new all time high territory and that is bullish.  However the good news of lower rates overseas didn't see the market take off to the upside.  Tomorrows employment report will set the tone for Fridays trading.  I do not know what to expect.  As always, the reaction to the numbers will be key.  GE was flat on the session and the volume was average for lately.  Gold was off $4 and that much again in the aftermarket as the US dollar took off on the European rate news.  The dollar rose almost a full point in the currency market. The XAU dropped 3 1/3 and has now broken down out of the consolidation zone.  ABX, GG and NEM all fell 3/4 on good volume.  The October ABX call trade is now dead.  The strength in the dollar has finally taken effect.  The seasonal pattern for gold and the gold shares did not pan out this year.  The gold shares are leading the way lower and that is not bullish.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So we will have to see if this is the start of an actual decline for the stock indices or simply another buying opportunity.  My only hope for the September OEX put trades that I'm holding is that some type of decline has begun.  However one day doesn't make a trend.  I'm thinking that the significant rise in the US dollar will impact the profits of the big multi-national corporations at some point.  If and when the market starts to factor that in would lead to some weakness.  That my theory at the moment.  Gold can find no buyers.  The fundamentals right now don't favor gold but that has been the case for quite some time.  The weakness in the gold shares doesn't bode well going forward.  Unless there is a dramatic turnaround for gold in the near future, the trend is down and who knows by how much?  We'll see how the European markets do overnight and wait for the US employment report tomorrow.

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