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Tuesday, September 23, 2014

Continuing lower as the Dow fell 116 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues lower.  The small stocks did not decline as much as the Dow which may mean that we will see some bounce tomorrow.  However I think that it is safe to say that things have changed for the stock indices.  No longer term up trend lines have been violated yet but that could occur.  We closed right on the lows for the day on some of the stock indexes and that is not a positive.  I'll be keeping an eye on the breadth as it gave a clue as to what is going on at the moment.  My October OEX puts remain in the black for now.  GE was off a few cents and the volume was light.  GE is holding up well here.  Perhaps it is not going to be a precursor this time around.  Gold was up around $5 on the futures.  The US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU was up 1 3/8.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on average volume.  Still no love for the gold shares.  The January ABX calls that I bought are in the red.  Plenty of time for this trade and the stop loss order is in.  Perhaps some overall stock market weakness will spur some interest in the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Perhaps my timing on the October OEX puts was correct this time.  We'll see.  The short term technicals for the stock indices haven't reached oversold just yet.  The up trend line for the Dow comes in at around 16600.  We are not close to that yet.  Gold stopped falling today but that by no means says the decline is done.  Silver has held up for a couple of days as well but that doesn't really mean anything yet.  These markets are overblown to the downside in my opinion.  The gold shares indices are trying to stop at the lows made in June.  Sooner or later there will be a decent bounce here.  We'll see how the overseas markets react to todays decline in the US and take it from there.

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