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Friday, September 26, 2014

Quite an interesting day as the Dow climbed back 167 points.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive.  That is better than we have seen lately.  The volume was light though.  The summation index continues lower.  Volatility has really picked up.  I thought we would simply be heading down but now it looks like anything could happen.  With todays price action the daily S&P 500 candlestick chart is showing a bullish belt hold pattern.  We will have to see if this rise continues next week.  My October OEX puts are still in the black but they lost a lot of their value today.  GE was up a few cents on around average volume.  Trying to hold the 50 week moving average here.  Gold was off $6 on the futures as the US dollar had another strong session.  Well above the 85 level for the dollar and there is no indication that the rally will end.  Overbought and staying there for the dollar.  The XAU lost another point.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume.  I have expected a bounce in the gold shares for weeks now.  The positive seasonals never kicked in.  The gold shares have remained oversold for weeks.  Gold will not rally with the dollar continuing its strength.  There is nothing on the horizon that will change that scenario.  I suppose I should have not tried the gold share calls again.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It wasn't exactly the way I would have liked to see the week end in the stock indices.  Todays up move was not what I expected.  Perhaps the decline is over but I'm not sold on that idea just yet.  Plenty of time in the October option cycle.  We do have the end of the month and the quarter coming up on Tuesday.  Plenty of economic data due out next week including the employment report.  I would expect more of the same 100+ point moves next week unless there is a dramatic change in the landscape.  I have no idea when the decline in the precious metals will end.  Oversold for many weeks now and I think perhaps I may even stop trading there and simply focus on the stock indexes.  The US dollar has gone straight up for three months.  It eventually won't end well there for the bulls but I cannot predict when that will be.  With all the turmoil around the world, normally you would expect to see a flight to safety.  Usually that includes the gold market.  This time around it looks like money is concentrated in the US dollar for that reason and the looming rise in US interest rates.  So gold and the gold shares continue to suffer.  That's my view there.  Plenty of work to do over the weekend.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

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