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Tuesday, September 02, 2014

The Dow fell 30 points today on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The market sold off during the session but made most of it back.  It is a market that wants to go higher.  The summation index continues to the upside.  The small stocks outperformed and that is bullish.  The TRAN had a strong session and that bodes well for higher prices.  My over leveraged September OEX put trade is getting crushed.  I suppose I'll give it until the employment report on Friday.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume was light.  GE came off of its lows as well.  Gold broke down today as support at $1275 did not hold.  The precious metal futures were down over $20.  The US dollar made another new high for the year.  The XAU fell 3 1/2.  ABX off 1/2, GG lost 1 1/3 and NEM shed 2/3.  Volume was good to the downside for the gold shares and that is not bullish.  The positive seasonal pattern has not shown up this year.  With all the geopolitical turmoil in the world, gold cannot even rally.  That bodes ill for the bulls.  My October ABX calls are losers.  Another failed trade so far.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I expect that the stock market will be heading higher tomorrow as it tried to sell off today but barely did.  There is plenty of money coming from somewhere.  Still overbought but not as much as it was.  GE has moved lower than the overall market recently but it hasn't meant anything yet.  Gold should continue down to the $1240 level.  We'll have to see what happens when it gets there.  The gold share indices are on the verge of breaking down from their 2 1/2 month consolidation.  All of my option positions are heavy losers and it looks like I'll have to book the losses soon.  We'll follow the overnight action and see what tomorrow brings.

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