A day to digest yesterdays gains as the Dow lost 7 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The market sold off during the session when big Ben Bernanke spoke.  Hard to get a good grip on what is going on this week since it is a holiday week and lightly traded.  You really just have to hang around until all the players return next week.  GE was flat on the day with the same light volume.  Gold dropped a bit, off $10 on the futures despite a flat US dollar.  The XAU fell 1 1/2.  ABX, GG and NEM were little changed or off just a touch.  Volume was light.  My January ABX calls are still in the red.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Just 2 trading days left in the week and we'll close early for Fridays trade.  It is a time to simply sit tight.  The time premium will decay for the options.  I don't expect a lot of movement in the stock indices until next week barring some type of unexpected event.  It is a time to relax, go over the charts and your trading ideas.  Preparation for next week would be the prudent course of action for now.

Today we saw the bounce that we were waiting for as the Dow climbed 207 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were over 8 to 1 positive.  The reasons could be anywhere from the "fiscal cliff" positive thoughts or the European mess suddenly sorting itself out.  Doesn't matter.  We were technically in an area that should of seen a bounce earlier than this, so it was bound to show up sooner or later.  Where we go from here is what matters.  Today had everything but the volume but it is a holiday week.  We'll see if we can build on this for the rest of this week.  GE had a gap to the upside and gained 1/2 on the day.  Volume was average.  The 200 day moving average held for GE, unlike the major averages.  Does that mean anything?  Perhaps.  Maybe GE will show better relative strength moving forward.  Gold had a decent day as the US dollar was weaker for a change.  The precious metal futures rose almost $20.  The XAU gained 4 7/8.  ABX up 1/2, GG added 1 1/8 and NEM higher by 2/3.  Volume was light.  I would have liked to see ABX move better with such a good day in the markets but was not to be.  My ABX January calls are still in the red.  I'm willing to give this trade some time to work as we are still oversold here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  One day doesn't make a rally so we will have to see how the rest of the shortened week plays out.  The volume was light and we don't trust light volume rallies.  So we'll see.  Gold continues to outperform the gold shares and that isn't a positive going forward.  I will say though that if ABX can hold up here in the next couple of weeks, there is a chance that this trade will work itself out.  Hasn't happened yet.  We'll see what goes on overnight and take it from there. 

The market is trying to hold in here but the rally attempt has been weak so far.  The Dow rose 45 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive.  Those numbers will move the McClellan oscillator from the deeply oversold condition but the accompanying price movement was tepid.  We have a holiday week coming up and there is really no reason to buy stocks.  I would like to see more of a decent snap back before I believe the decline is over.  Hasn't happened yet.  The technicals remain oversold.  GE didn't do much again on average volume.  Hovering around the 200 day moving average here.  Gold didn't do much today but the US dollar closed up for the day after being much higher during the session.  The XAU gained 1 1/3.  ABX and NEM had fractional gains, while GG had a fractional loss.  Volume was good for the gold shares.  My ABX January calls are underwater.  It looks as though I have bought these calls too early.  Plenty of time for this trade to work but it already has the feel of a loser.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It appears that the stock indices went lower into the expiration today before bouncing back a little.  That was a possible scenario discussed earlier.  Where we go from here it what matters now.  The December options have an extra week on them.  We're still oversold on the technicals and still haven't seen a good rebound.  That is a problem going forward.  Gold has held up pretty good here but the gold shares have gotten pummeled.  This relationship has to change if the ABX call trade is going to work for me.  The fact that we have a lot of recent Mideast turmoil and the price of gold hasn't rallied is troublesome for the bullish cause.  Plenty to ponder over the weekend and the charts must be checked as well.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break. 

The general malaise continues as the Dow fell 28 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  Very oversold on all levels here and I would expect a snap back tomorrow or Monday.  I doubt it will be anything sustainable but at least we'll take a rest from the drop.  If that doesn't happen we may actually simply collapse but I do not think that will occur.  However we have to be aware that it could.  The market as always goes where it wants.  The McClellan oscillator is deeply oversold and it doesn't stay that way for long.  So we'll look for some type of rally attempt and go from there.  GE was up a nickel as it tries to hold on at it's 200 day moving average.  Volume was good.  No trades here for now.  Gold fell today as the futures lost $16.  The US dollar continues to meander, with not much price action.  The XAU dropped another 4 1/8.  ABX fell 2/3, GG off 1 1/3 and NEM lost 1/4.  Volume was good on the gold shares.  I bought some more of the January ABX calls and averaged down my original cost.  This is something that usually doesn't work.  However I am a believer that this trade will work out.  I could be wrong and have been wrong a lot this year.  The charts for ABX look ugly to the downside.  It very well could be the falling knife syndrome.  But when nobody else wants something it is sometimes the right time to buy.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Interesting times in the marketplace right now.  The stock indices have broken down.  There can be no denying that.  We are due for a bounce and it should come soon.  I would not be a buyer of stocks for the longer term until sometime next year.  Gold has held up rather well so far during this decline but the gold shares have not.  However there is a lot of tension in the Middle East at the moment and gold hasn't rallied.  That could be a problem for the gold bulls going forward.  We'll see.  We'll close out the week with option expiration tomorrow.   

Oversold and staying there is never a good combination for the bulls.  The Dow is now in the fall apart mode as we lost 185 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 9 to 1 negative.  No positive expiration week bias this month.  The summation index continues lower.  The McClellan oscillator has broken down from the -150 level.  We will now probably see a washout decline and then a snap back rally.  Within the next 3 days or so, if I had to guess.  The S&P 500 couldn't hold the 200 day moving average and followed the over the counter stocks through that level.  The game has changed and did so about a month ago.  GE fell 2/3 on heavy volume.  We've reached the 200 day moving average here.  Probably won't hold here as well.  It obviously isn't a time to own stocks and probably won't be for a while.  Gold was up $5 on the futures and fell back a few bucks in the aftermarket.  The US dollar again had very little change on the day.  The XAU followed the overall market lower and dropped 8 1/4 points.  ABX, GG and NEM all lost over a dollar and change on good volume.  The gold shares continue to under perform gold itself.  My open order for the January ABX calls was filled.  It is already a loser by about 20%.  Plenty of time for this trade to work itself out.  However if the overall liquidation mode continues, the gold shares will continue to fall as well.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  How much lower can we go here?  Probably lower than most think at the moment.  We may just run down into the expiration on Friday.  Rallies will most likely be sold into from now on.  Any compelling reasons to own stocks here?  The psychology of the market has changed.  Gold still is holding up rather well.  The Gold/XAU ratio is clearly in the buy zone for the gold stocks.  But we saw this before earlier this year and it did not work.  I was looking at IAG for a possible candidate for the January calls as well.  It missed on earnings last night and was clobbered today, off 20% in just one session.  Perhaps my idea on the gold shares is off the mark here as well.  We'll see what happens overnight and go from there.

We opened lower, climbed out of that hole to be positive most of the day, only to roll back down in the final hour.  The Dow fell 59 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  Oversold, staying there and that is not a good sign.  The summation index continues lower.  We closed below the important line in the sand level of 1380 on the S&P 500.  So I would have to say that we need to watch out here for a big decline.  Perhaps things can turn around tomorrow but it doesn't feel like it.  Caution would be the word that best describes the current stock market environment.  GE lost almost 1/4 on average volume.  Here too we are breaking to new lows for the move.  It looks like we are heading to the 200 day moving average at around $20.  The gold futures fell 6 bucks today as the US dollar again didn't do much of anything.  The XAU fell 2 points.  ABX, GG and NEM all fell at least 1/2 or more on light volume.  These issues have the same I'm going lower feel to them as the overall market.  I'm still leaving in my open order for the January ABX calls.  Could be another mistake but I will check it out again tonight.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock indices tried again to rally today and failed.  That is troublesome.  The smaller stocks have already broken down below their 200 day moving averages and perhaps now the larger caps will follow.  Tomorrow could get interesting.  Gold has held up rather well lately but the gold shares have lagged.  Sometimes when nobody wants something, it's the time to step up to the plate.  The gold shares are oversold technically.  I'm willing to take the chance here but I may be early.  We'll see.  I'll keep an eye on developments overnight and go from there.   

A semi-holiday today as the banks and bond markets were closed for Veterans Day.  The Dow drifted all session and finished the day basically unchanged on very light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  Still trying to hold or bounce from the important 1380 level on the S&P 500.  Where we move from here will be worth watching.  Still oversold on the short term technicals for the stock indexes.  GE fell 1/8 on the same very light volume.  No trades there for now.  The gold futures were flat on the day and off a bit in the aftermarket.  The US dollar didn't do much today either.  The XAU however fell 2 3/8 as it is now under performing the precious metal itself.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on very light volume.  I'm leaving in my open order for the January ABX calls.  Not sure if it will get filled at the price that I'm willing to pay.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Option expiration week and all the players should return tomorrow.  The Dow transports rallied today and perhaps the overall market will follow tomorrow.  Summation index still heading lower though.  It's anybodies guess as to what happens this week.  We'll watch the overseas markets tonight and go from there. 

The market tried to rally today but when it was all said and done the Dow only managed a gain of 4 points.  Volume was average and the advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index continues lower.  The McClellan oscillator is trying to hold in at the -150 level, which has been the stopping point in momentum since June.  The stock indices remain oversold on a daily technical basis.  Expiration week is coming up.  It remains to be seen if the usual positive bias will be in effect this time around.  I'd simply be guessing if told you where we are heading next for the S&P 500.  We are right at the 200 day moving average and this is where the battle will be to stop the decline.  It has held so far.  GE was up 1/8 on average volume.  No trade there for now.  Gold gained $5 on the futures and the US dollar was higher as well.  The XAU was off 2 1/2 though.  ABX down 3/8, GG and NEM dropped 3/4.  Volume was light.  I've left in the open order for the ABX January calls for now.  I may switch to IAG.  The technicals for gold itself are short term overbought now, while the gold share technicals are mid-range.  I'll have to ponder this idea once again over the weekend.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We got the US election out of the way but the market not only didn't care, it sold off.  Probably because the outcome only guarantees more of the same political infighting that has gone on since the beginning of politics.  The stock indexes are technically oversold and staying there.  That is not bullish.  Perhaps expiration week can start to turn things around but I don't know.  Gold caught a bid this week and that has stopped the month long decline.  Whether or not this is the beginning of another attempt to the $1800 level remains to be seen.  The gold shares lagged this week.  With only 5 days to go in the November option cycle, I won't be trying any trades on that short of a duration.  The December options have an extra weeks time on them but one of the week there is a holiday week.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend to try and make some sense of things.  Friday afternoon is here and it is time to start to enjoy the weekend. 

What a time to take a couple of days off, which I rarely do but was already committed to.  A brief recap of the 2 days I missed posting the blog.  Tuesday saw a 133 point rally in the Dow as the election uncertainty was going to finally pass.  The gold futures rallied as well, over $30.  The XAU didn't rally as much though.  Wednesday saw a nasty sell-off for stocks as the Dow fell 312 points.  Gold was flat on the day and the XAU rallied slightly again.  Which brings us to today.  The Dow followed through to the downside and that isn't good sign if you're bullish.  The Dow dropped another 121 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues lower.  The S&P 500 is at its 200 day moving average.  I would expect some attempt to stabilize here but who knows?  We are in a liquidation mode for whatever reason.  We will have to see how long this lasts.  The McClellan oscillator still has more room to the downside before we get to the snap back stage.  So it is time to keep an eye on things for sure.  GE dropped 1/4 on average volume and broke to new recent lows.  The 50 week moving average comes in at just below $20.  Not trades here for now.  The gold futures had another good day in the flight to safety.  They rose $12 as the dollar had slight gains as well.  The XAU only moved up 1 1/4.  ABX and GG up 1/4, while NEM was flat.  Volume was average here.  Before I took off for a couple of days, I did place an order for some ABX January calls.  It wasn't filled.  The major gold shares are not moving as much here as I would expect.  Perhaps the recent earnings reports have kept traders away.  I may move over to a second tier gold producer such as IAG.  At least the percentage moves here lately have been better.  I have left the ABX January call trade open though, to see if it will get filled.  I'm still considering if this is a viable idea considering we've had a decent move in gold for the past few days and the major gold shares haven't participated.  Mentally I'm pretty tired, haven't slept well for a couple of days.  The stock indices have the look and feel as if they are simply breaking down here.  I'm not sure how long this will last but I don't think that it is done just yet.  7 days to go in the November option cycle so perhaps we will drop into that.  That's a guess as usual.  Gold has moved up this week but the gold shares haven't followed as much as they should.  No hurry to trade there either I suppose.  We'll keep and eye on how the foreign markets react to todays drop and go from there.

A bit higher on Monday as the Dow gained 19 points on very light volume.  The advance/declines were about even.  It's a waiting game on the election at this point.  Perhaps we'll see a rally when that unknown has passed.  The technicals are still more oversold than overbought on the stock indices.  At this juncture, things could go either way.  If I had any real conviction, I'd try something here but I don't.  GE was up 1/8 after opening lower.  Volume was light.  The technicals appear to be turning up here.  Gold bounced back a little, up $8 on the futures.  The US dollar was higher today as well.  The XAU fell over a point though.  No love for the gold shares.  ABX off 1/4, GG up 1/4 and NEM shed 1/3.  Volume looks to be about average for the gold shares.  I'm still considering the gold share calls for January.  It may take a while to build a base though.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It is simply a time of wait and see for the stock indexes here.  Wednesday will be an interesting session.  Regardless of who wins the election the markets will move on.  Nobody wants the gold shares here.  That should tell us something.  It's usually the time to buy unless we simply continue the recent free fall.  Obviously I have no conviction one way or the other there.  That said, I'll be trying the gold share calls again at some point.  I'll be away from my desk for the next few days due to a previous commitment.  I may or may not be able to post remotely.  Tomorrow should be slow again and then we will key off of the markets reaction to the election results.  I'm expecting Obama to win and we'll see how much of that is factored into prices already.  However I could be wrong and have been a lot this year.

Friday was a one day reversal to the downside as the Dow opened higher and closed lower.  The most watched index fell 139 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index started heading lower again.  We will really need to see things turn around rather quickly or we could be heading towards new recent lows for the stock indices.  The technicals remain oversold and that will be a problem if we don't start a rally here.  We got a bounce but there was no follow through.  The employment report was a bit better than expected but it didn't mean much to stocks.  Next week should be very interesting.  GE was flat after opening higher and the volume was a little better than average.  No trades here for now.  Gold got pounded lower on a stronger US dollar.  The precious metal futures lost $40, which was the biggest one day loss in quite a while.  The XAU fell 8 1/8.  ABX off 1 1/3, GG dropped 2 1/4 and NEM led the way down by 4 1/2.  Volume was heavy in the gold shares as traders headed for the exits in a hurry.  I think the prevailing wisdom here is that the US dollar is starting a longer term rally here and the commodity complex is going to head lower.  That's my guess as to what occurred on Friday.  Whether or not that is true only time will tell.  Of course I'm still reeling from the ABX November call trade but I'm  willing to take a look at the gold share calls again for January.  However the drop at the moment is so steep that I will have to reassess this idea.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock indexes need to hold on here or it could get ugly.  Still oversold and we should have had more upside than the bounce on Thursday.  Perhaps we will get some rally this week but the market will go where it wants.  Gold is in a down trend.  There is a bit of support where we are right now but much more at $1625.  The charts of the gold shares look ugly to the downside.  I'll be away from my desk starting on Tuesday.  I may or may not be able to provide the daily market updates until Thursday or Friday.  I might be able to post remotely but we'll see.  Enjoy the rest of the weekend.  

The expected upside showed up today as the Dow gained 136 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  Perhaps the market knows something about tomorrows employment report.  Or not.  Technically we needed a bounce and we got it.  We'll have to wait and see if it is the start of something more.  GE gained 1/4 on average volume.  Perhaps we are trying to put in a base here as well.  No trades there for now.  Gold lost a few bucks as the dollar didn't do much again today.  The XAU fell 1 1/8.  ABX was the story of the day as it got clobbered on a poor earnings report.  ABX down 3 7/8, GG up 1/8 and NEM fell 1 1/3.  Volume was extremely heavy on ABX, about average for the others.  My ABX November calls were a complete 100% loss.  ABX gapped down at the open and blew past my stop loss order.  I never seem to do well with the short term trades and this was no exception.  I wasn't expecting anything like this but the market as usual will go where it wants.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We will have to see if we get any follow through to todays rally in the overall market tomorrow.  If so, we could be at the beginning of some type of rally here.  If not, it will be more of the same sideways activity pre-election.  So we'll see.  Gold seems to be in the same stand by mode.  I'm not sure if I'll try the gold share calls again.  I'll have to try and regroup from todays debacle.  I might go with the GDX for the next gold trade as the single stock risk would be less.  Trading a basket of the gold shares vs. a single company in theory has less risk.  We'll see.  Perhaps I simply expected ABX to have the same upside movement that GG had on its earnings release.  We'll get the employment number tomorrow and go from there.

We tried to rally but fell off as the Dow dropped 10 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  October trading has ended and we're on to November.  We've got the employment report on Friday and then the US election on Tuesday.  Technically the stock indices are still oversold and I believe that regardless of the numbers, near term we will move higher.  The S&P 500 has gone sideways for 4 days in a row.  Although the summation index is still heading lower, I expect an upside pop in the major averages within the next 2 days.  I could be wrong but I don't think so.  GE was off a nickel on about average volume.  Short term oversold here as well.  Gold moved higher to close out the month.  The futures rose $7.  The US dollar didn't do much today but had been lower when the US markets were closed.  The XAU gained 5 1/2 as it continues to outperform than precious metal.  ABX up 1 1/3, GG added 1 /2 and NEM rose 1 1/4.  Volume was average for the gold shares.  Higher prices were expected in the gold shares and we got them.  I ended up getting some ABX November calls before tomorrows earnings report.  I'm not a big fan of chasing moves but I think that ABX is going to go higher.  I still like the January calls as well if there is some pullback down the road.  Of course I could be mistaken and the stock sells off on the earnings report.  I have a stop loss order in place.  Regardless, it looks like last week was the time to purchase the January calls for ABX.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  Oversold on the stock indexes and staying there.  That is usually a recipe for disaster but we've only been moving sideways.  Perhaps another day of wait and see before the numbers on Friday.  It's anybodies guess.  Gold moved up today but the gold shares have really been acting well lately.  We'll see if that trend continues.  I'm not sure how long I will hold on to the November ABX calls.  I have a commitment on Friday halfway through the trading day. That will delay the blog posting until Saturday.  I will also be away from my desk for a couple of days next week due to a prior engagement.  The blog might be late or not posted in the middle of the week.  We'll see how ABX reacts to the earnings and go from there.  

A mini-holiday for those not dealing with the wrath of the storm named Sandy.  Wall Street should get back to business tomorrow.  The S&P 500 futures sold off over 10 points yesterday but we are back to being a bit higher.  I do expect some strength in the stock indices before the employment report on Friday.  Gold hasn't done much in the past 2 days.  The US dollar however did have some weakness today.  The gold shares have made some gains over the past 2 days on the Toronto exchange.  I will try and purchase some ABX calls ahead of the earnings that are out early Thursday however the premiums will probably be inflated.  It most likely would have been easier to attempt this trade under normal market conditions but that isn't the case.  It's hard to say what the conditions will be like tomorrow with the end of the month.  Perhaps we'll see some volatility but it's really anybodies guess.  The foreign markets have generally been slightly higher the past 2 days.  So we'll see what happens tomorrow morning and go from there. 

The stock market tried to sell off today but didn't as the Dow gained a mere 3 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  We've moved sideways for 3 days and I think we are going higher.  We're still short term oversold.  My gut feeling is that if we were going to continue lower, we would have already.  When the market is in a decent decline, it doesn't hang around for 3 days.  It falls and we haven't, even though there has been plenty of bad earnings lately.  The GDP report was better than expected but this is a number that will be revised a couple of times.  I'm not saying that we will go to new yearly highs but we should rally in the beginning of next week.  GE lost 1/8 on average volume.  Oversold here as well.  No trades in mind at the moment.  The gold futures as well as the US dollar were flat on the day.  The XAU lost 1 3/8.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume.  I've left in the open order for the January ABX calls.  The earnings for ABX are due on November 1st.  I believe that I will need to make the purchase ahead of the earnings if GG was any type of indicator.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  The stock indices have had every reason to fall after Tuesdays drop and they haven't.  That's bullish moving forward.  The summation index is still heading down but that could change with one decent up day.  We should see higher stock prices in the beginning of next week.  The employment report on Friday should be the next major mover.  Gold has been in a downtrend for the month of October.  The gold shares have basically moved sideways in the same time period.  I will be trying to get some ABX calls at a good premium in the beginning of next week.  I would like to go out to January because the weekly chart here shows a potentially bullish head and shoulders pattern.  Potential because it hasn't happened yet and may not.  I may just get the near month for the earnings report but the risk would be much higher.  We'll see.  Plenty to think about over the weekend.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Got somewhat of a bounce today as the Dow gained 26 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The day started with a nice rise but then the sellers took over for most of the rest of the day.  We're still short term oversold.  We should move off of the GDP report tomorrow.  Which way is anybodies guess.  GE was flat on the day with average volume.  We have at least stopped going down for now.  No trades for GE in mind at the moment.  Gold gained $11 on the futures and the dollar was a bit higher as well.  The story was in the gold shares as the XAU gained 4 7/8 on a strong earnings report from GG.  ABX and NEM were up a buck, GG soared 2 3/4.  The volume was light though, however you cannot argue with the price movement.  I still have the open order in for the January ABX calls.  Earnings are due for both ABX and NEM on November 1st.  I will probably want to own the calls before then if todays market action in GG is any indication of the future.  Or perhaps I'm too late once again.  Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well.  The summation index continues lower but there is the possibility that if we rally tomorrow that the decline is over.  That's a guess as usual.  There's still a chance that we could unravel as well.  That is the type of market environment we are in at the moment.  There is no clear picture but we have moved lower lately.  Gold has held the level of $1700 so far and that would be a positive going forward if we can hold up.  I think the gold share calls can still be purchased for ABX.  Perhaps tomorrow if we see some weakness. 

The Dow closed down 25 points today on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The Fed came and went with no real market reaction.  That was anticipated by most of the players.  The stock indices tried to rally today but to no avail.  We are short term oversold so some type of bounce should appear.  But the trend is down and support lines have been violated.  The Dow transportation index was down heavy today.  GDP on Friday and that should be the next market mover.  GE was flat today on average volume.  Oversold here as well.  Gold fell again today, off $7 on the futures.  The US dollar was flat today.  The XAU fell 3 1/8 as near term support appears to have been broken.  ABX down 3/8, GG lost 1 1/2 and NEM fell 1 1/4.  Volume picked up a bit and that isn't positive going forward.  The gold shares look like they're breaking down here on the daily candlestick charts.  ABX has held up better than the rest lately, however that could change at any time.  I still have the open order in for the January calls there but I might adjust it overnight.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  No buyers lately for stocks.  I don't feel any sense of impending doom here but the summation index continues lower.  Oversold on the stock indexes and that is a condition that needs to change or things could get dicey.  Oversold and staying there is a recipe for downside surprise.  Gold has gotten to $1700 and it really needs to hold on here.  There is some other support at $1675 but I would not like to see that happen.  The market will go where it wants though.  Commodities in general are falling now.  I'll have to ponder the ABX trade tonight and decide what to do.  We'll see if we can mount some type of rally tomorrow.

There was no upside follow through as the Dow fell 243 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were about 3 to 1 negative.  After yesterdays nice comeback, the stock indices just could not hold up.  We are short term oversold here, so a bounce tomorrow would not be out of the question.  The Dow transports actually were higher on the day.  The breadth of the market wasn't so bad either considering the magnitude of the decline.  The summation index continues lower though.  Rising trend lines on many of the stock indices have been broken.  We're heading lower and perhaps sideways is the best we can hope for near term.  GE fell another 3/8 and the volume was good.  This chart has broken down and that doesn't bode well for the overall market.  No trades in mind here.  Gold fell today as well on a stronger US dollar.  The precious metal futures dropped over $15.  The XAU fell 5 2/3.  ABX off 3/8, GG lost 1 1/8 and NEM led the way down, weaker by 1 2/3.  Volume was light.  ABX held up considerably well with todays market sell off.  I still have in an open order for the January calls here but I may have to adjust it to get filled.  The option premiums are staying quite high for the ABX January series, which tells me that this idea may actually work.  We'll see.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The tone of the game here has changed.  We are heading lower on the S&P 500, perhaps to 1400 or 1380 in my view.  Anything below that and we could be in big trouble.  I don't see that happening.  Gold is getting close to the $1700 level and it will be important to hold that in my opinion.  Might get there tomorrow.  We've got the Fed tomorrow but there really isn't much to expect from that this time.  I could be wrong.  We'll see how the overseas markets react to todays decline and go from there.

The Dow made quite a comeback today as we were down over 100 points and came back to finish up 2.  The advance/declines were slightly negative and the volume was light.  We rallied in the last hour and that is a positive going forward.  We'll see if we can follow through to the upside tomorrow.  I'm not completely sold on the idea that the recent decline is over though.  But it could be as we hover at the 50 day moving average on the Dow.  The summation index continues to the downside.  We've got the Fed to deal with this week and the GDP report on Friday.  GE fell 1/3 on heavy volume.  GE cut it's loss for the day more than half as well.  However the GE daily chart looks like it is breaking down.  If GE is a precursor for the overall market, we'll see lower overall stock prices ahead.  Gold gained a couple of bucks on the futures as the US dollar was pretty much flat on the day.  The XAU rose 2 1/4.  The gold shares continue to outperform.  ABX, GG and NEM all were higher by about 1/2 on light volume.  I'm leaving in the open order for the January ABX calls.  The open interest expanded on the strike prices that I observed on Friday and that's bullish.  I would ideally like to purchase some gold share calls this week on weakness.  May not get the chance but it's early in the week still.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It was a nice comeback for the stock indices today.  Follow through seems to me to be more important than usual considering where we are on many indexes.  The over the counter indexes have been weaker and that isn't a good sign for the bulls.  But if the major indices can hold up here, perhaps the decline is actually done.  I'm not exactly sure but my guess would be lower prices this week.  I could be wrong.  Gold is right on it's 50 day moving average.  The chart on the gold shares has been moving sideways for over a month.  I'll be looking for an upside breakout at some point.  Hence, I'd like to own some calls before that happens.  But the markets will do what they please, as always.  We'll see what transpires tomorrow.   

An interesting expiration Friday as the Dow fell 205 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative.  Earnings disappointments were the norm for today.  The S&P 500 is right back to the 50 day moving average and the technicals have rolled over.  It appears that we are going to head lower.  My call for new yearly highs looks like another bad idea on my part.  I expected some weakness next week but not of this magnitude.  The uptrend line that has been in effect since June has been broken and the next support that I see is at around 1420 and then 1400 if that doesn't hold.  Anything could happen but todays action changes the near term tone of the market.  GE fell on its earnings report.  It was down 3/4 on heavy volume.  On the weekly chart here the uptrend line is at $21.50.  That line has been in effect since late 2011.  It is important that we stay above that level on a weekly closing basis or it could spell trouble for the overall markets.  That's my thoughts there at the moment.  Gold fell $20 on the futures as the US dollar was higher on the day.  However the gold shares did not follow as the XAU only lost 1/4.  ABX, GG and NEM were mixed with fractional moves.  The volume here picked up and they closed well off of their lows of the day.  Money sought the gold shares as a safe haven today in my opinion.  I left in the open order for the January ABX calls.  I noticed extremely heavy volume in the January 42 ABX calls today.  If the open interest expands on Monday it would be a positive sign.  The same type of action occurred in the ABX calls prior to the August-September run up.  I'm still a believer in the gold shares moving higher in the medium term future.  I could be wrong and often am.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Today was possibly a game changer for the overall stock indices.  The tech shares are leading the way down.  If the bank shares roll over here as well, we will probably be in a longer term decline.  Hasn't happened yet.  The fact that gold sold off today also makes the possibility of asset liquidation look real.  I'm going to try and purchase some gold share calls next week.  That is the game plan as of right now.  I'll be checking all the charts over the weekend to decide the best course of action.  I'll also be watching the financial media to see the reaction to todays sell off.  If the tone is bullish then we are most likely headed lower.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest. 

A bit lower today as the Dow fell 8 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is heading higher.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  Getting short term overbought on the technicals for the stock indices.  That doesn't mean that we can't go higher though.  The NASDAQ had a big dip thanks to Google.  I'm not sure that means anything going forward.  I still think that the presidential re-election rally is in place.  GE was off 1/8 on average volume.  The earnings should be a factor tomorrow.  I have no idea what will happen there.  Todays daily chart candlestick was bearish though.  Gold fell about $8 on the futures as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU fell 5 points and closed practically on its low.  That's bearish going forward.  ABX, GG and NEM all lost a buck or more on what passes for average volume lately.  I dropped the strike price on my open order for the January ABX calls.  I would ideally like to purchase some gold share calls next week.  I believe that we'll see some overall market weakness next week and the gold shares should follow.  I could be wrong.  That is the game plan at the moment.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  Expiration Friday on tap with a bunch of earnings reports as well.  Perhaps we'll see some volatility.  Otherwise it's a wait and see mode for me at the moment.  I might switch to the December gold share calls but that is something that I'll consider over the weekend.  We'll see what comes out of Europe overnight and go from there.

Just hanging around today as the Dow gained 5 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  The summation index is heading higher.  The Obama re-election rally lives on.  Look for new yearly highs in the S&P 500 in the next few days.  The positive expiration week bias remains in effect.  No telling how long this uptrend will last but higher is the path of least resistance for now.  GE was up 1/4 on light volume.  A waiting game on the earnings here.  A good number could propel this issue to new yearly highs as well.  Gold gained $6 on the futures as the US dollar was lower again.  The XAU rose 2 1/8.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on light volume.  I'm leaving in the January ABX call open order for now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A European summit meeting tomorrow will grab the headlines and could possibly be a market mover.  The market is trending higher regardless.  We could continue to the upside until the US presidential election.  That's a guess as usual.  The gold shares continue to outperform the price of gold itself.  That remains a positive going forward.  We'll  keep an eye on the overseas markets and go from there.     

Continuing higher as the Dow gained 127 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  Getting some OEX calls yesterday was the obvious trade that I failed to do.  Once again an opportunity has been wasted because I simply did not want to take the risk.  No risk, no reward in this game.  The summation index could turn back to the upside with todays numbers.  It appears that the stock indices want to rally into the election, which discounts an Obama victory.  2 solid up days are the beginning of a trend, as there are not any apparent sellers so far this week.  GE was flat on the day and the volume wasn't anything special.  Probably just waiting for the earnings on Friday here.  Gold bounced back as the US dollar was weaker today.  The yellow metal futures were up over $10 today.  The XAU gained 3 3/4.  ABX up a buck, GG added 1/2 and NEM led the way higher by 1 1/4.  Volume was light but the price action was positive.  I've left in the open order for the January ABX calls but we may start to rally in the gold shares as well.  The daily candlestick charts look constructive to the upside with todays action.  Perhaps the November calls are in order here.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, could have slept better.  The positive expiration week bias remains as we have gained over 2oo points in the first couple of days this week.  Not taking advantage of that is painful.  But you have to move on.  It looks like new yearly highs for the stock indexes are coming soon.  The gold shares are outdoing the price of gold once again and that is a positive moving forward.  ABX, GG and NEM should follow the overall market higher unless we see some sort of breakdown in gold but I don't see that happening.  Gold is still attracting capital.  We'll see what happens tomorrow after tonights second presidential debate.  That may or may not influence the price action on Wednesday.

We got a bounce today as the Dow gained 95 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  Some upside was expected and the next question is whether we can sustain it.  The market did rally in the last hour which is a positive going forward.  We've held the 50 day moving average on the S&P 500 daily charts.  The summation index is still moving down but that could change with another day like today.  There is a school of thought that says that we will rally into the election because of the re-election of Obama.  That could be true.  But we'll stick with the technicals and they are oversold and starting to move up on the stick indices.  So there is room to go higher.  GE was up 1/8 on light volume.  No trades here and the earnings are due on Friday.  Gold fell today as the futures lost over $20, breaking support.  The US dollar was lower as well.  The XAU sold off early but followed the overall market back to finished up 1/4.  The gold shares outperformed gold itself and that bodes well for the gold shares moving forward.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume.  I still have the open order in for the January ABX calls.  I'd like to see it filled before the earnings come out on November 1st.  May or may not happen.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  The positive expiration week bias looks intact after todays market action.  But we still have the rest of the week to go.  Plenty of earnings being reported this week along with a number of economic reports.  Time will tell if this is the beginning of a new leg up for the stock indexes.  I'm not sure one way or the other but we could rally into the expiration.  After that, we'll have to wait and see.  Gold broke down today on the daily chart.  The technicals are just getting oversold.  The 50 day moving average could act as support and that comes in at around $1710.  I'm still a believer in higher prices going out in time.  But for now it appears that gold is going to take a rest.  I'd still like to get some gold share calls though.  We'll see if the stock indices can follow through to the upside tomorrow.  

We closed the week with a whimper as the Dow gained just 2 points on pretty light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative, the opposite of yesterday.  Summation index heading lower.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  Short term oversold and a bounce is overdue.  The S&P 500 is trying to hold its 50 day moving average on a daily basis.  The Dow as well is trying to hold on here but it has broken the uptrend line that began in June.  The over the counter markets remain above their uptrend lines.  It's a mixed bag but we are oversold and expiration week is coming up with its usual upside bias.  GE was flat and the volume was light.  It's possible that we are trying to put in a short term bottom here at around 22.50.  Gold was weaker on the day as the futures fell over $10.  The US dollar was weaker as well.  The XAU dropped 3 3/8.  ABX off 7/8, GG lost 2/3 and NEM down 3/8.  Volume was very light.  I canceled the open order for the November ABX calls and left in the order for the ABX January calls.  I may try the November calls again next week.  Earnings for ABX are due on November 1st.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, could have slept better.  The weekly chart for the S&P 500 now has a bearish engulfing candlestick and the technicals have rolled over.  Perhaps we'll see some more weakness next week but I do believe that we will see some type of bounce first.  I could be wrong and often am.  I'm choosing not to take any risk there for now though.  I could change my mind over the weekend.  I still like gold for higher prices going forward but if the overall market falls here, the gold shares will probably follow.  I don't have any problem going out to January with the options.  But like anything else, it's just a guess.  I'm willing to take the chance here though.  The gold share weekly candlestick charts look bearish here as well, with the exception of NEM.  I'll have to double check the charts over the weekend.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

We tried to hold onto the gains made early today but could not.  The Dow lost 18 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive though.  Short term oversold and a bounce is coming.  The indices were mixed today.  I'd expect some type of rally attempt tomorrow into early next week.  We are still right at the uptrend line for the S&P 500 and I expect it to hold for now in the short term.  But if it doesn't, the game will have changed.  Hasn't happened yet.  GE had a slight gain and the volume was very light.  No trades here for now.  Gold was up $5 on the futures as the US dollar lost some ground today.  The XAU gained 7/8.  ABX and GG had fractional losses, while NEM was up 1/2.  Volume remains light here.  I adjusted down the price for the November ABX calls again.  I also placed an open order in for some January ABX calls.  I am now thinking that October could be a consolidation month for the gold shares.  That's a guess as usual.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  6 days to go in the October option cycle.  If I had the guts, I'd be willing to try the OEX calls tomorrow on any weakness.  The problem there is that if we break the uptrend line in the S&P 500, we'll be heading lower rather quickly.  The summation index is heading lower as well so I'm not willing to take the risk.  Gold is still meandering around here.  I'll keep an eye on Europe overnight and take it from there.

We are right at the point of ending the months long rally as the Dow fell 128 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The S&P 500 is sitting on the uptrend line that began in June.  The summation index continues lower.  On the plus side, we haven't broken down yet.  We are also short term oversold.  Plus the advance/declines for today were not as bad as a down 128 point market.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow as well.  But we are at a point in time where things might change and we have to be aware of that.  GE was off 1/4 on light volume.  It looks like we are rolling over here and that would not be bullish for the overall stock indices.  Gold was flat on the day as was the US dollar.  Waiting on a meeting in Europe tomorrow is my guess.  The XAU gained 1 1/3.  ABX, GG and NEM were mixed with slight moves one way or the other on light volume.  I left in the open order for the November ABX calls after adjusting the price lower.  I am also looking at going out to the January calls here.  ABX is trying to hold the $40 level and a break of that should take us to the 50 day moving average at the $38.5 level.  That may actually be the spot to get long.  All just theory there.  I remain a longer term believer in higher prices for gold and the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  Just as today was important, tomorrow is even more so.  We probably should bounce but after that it could get dicey.  What I'm saying is that being careful here would not be a bad idea.  That said, the decline could also be done and now we rally to new yearly highs.  Take your pick but I think we'll know pretty soon what is going to happen.  Gold is still holding up pretty good for now as the US dollar is at an important juncture as well.  Any strength in the dollar will break through a down trend line that has been in effect since late July.  It is something to keep an eye on with respect to gold and the stock indexes as well.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Weakness today as the Dow fell 110 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index will be back to heading lower.  We closed almost on the low of the day for the S&P 500 and that isn't exactly bullish.  A decline in the early part of this week was expected.  The uptrend line from June comes in at around 1435.  We need to hold on there or the game will be changed.  Haven't broken it yet but beware if we do.  1435 would be a logical spot to get some calls if you were so inclined.  I've had a bullish stance on the overall market for a while but the technicals have rolled over.  I'm on the sidelines with regards to the OEX as the time to buy the puts there has probably already passed.  GE fell 1/3 on average volume.  The same story here as the technicals are heading south.  No trades here for me now.  Gold fell $10 on the futures as the US dollar had a good day.  The XAU dropped 4 points.  We've got the technical rollover here as well.  ABX off 7/8, GG fell 1 1/2 and NEM down 1 1/4.  Volume remained light.  I adjusted down the strike price for the November ABX call order.  I will have to ponder this trade tonight because if the overall market starts to fall here, the gold shares will most likely follow suit.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Important session tomorrow for the stock indices in my opinion.  We're not overbought or oversold at this juncture, so anything is possible.  I'd like to see the rally continue but that doesn't mean that it will.  So we'll see what happens.  I'm still a believer for higher gold prices in the future.  However this market can get moving pretty fast one way or the other at times.  If we break down from these levels it could get ugly pretty fast.  Again, hasn't happened yet and I'm still ready to try the gold share calls here.  Perhaps going further out to January is a possible trade.  I'll consider that tonight as well.  We'll watch how the foreign markets react to todays US stock index action and go from there.  

It was a semi-holiday today as the bond market was closed for Columbus Day.  The Dow fell 26 points on extremely light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  I expect a bit of weakness in the early part of this week.  After that, who knows?  Not a lot of economic data out this week.  The trend is still up.  GE fell almost 1/4 on the same very light volume.  We're still overbought on GE, so there is room to head lower near term.  That doesn't mean that will happen but the technicals won't remain overbought forever.  Gold lost $5 on the futures as the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU fell 1 1/2.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on the very light volume.  Still moving sideways here.  I did place an open order for some ABX November calls.  This will be my next trade if it gets filled.  This is the idea for now but that could change going forward.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm still a believer in new yearly highs for the S&P 500 going forward.  We've been moving sideways for 3 weeks.  No uptrend lines have been broken.  Earnings season is upon us.  Gold is moving sideways as well.  If and when we get through 1800 should signal the next up leg.  Patience is required for now.

A mixed market once again as the Dow gained 35 points while the overall stock indices were weaker.  The advance/declines were positive and the volume was light.  We rallied on a better employment percentage number early in the day and then sold off for the remainder of the session.  There was a huge drop in the rate of unemployment but by now we all know that these numbers are byproducts of government.  The group in power would like to remain so and an election is imminent.  As traders we only care how things affect the market, regardless of the party in the White House.  The fact that the rally could not sustain itself could be a negative in the short term.  The summation index was higher yesterday but not by much.  The stock indexes are approaching short term overbought.  GE was up 1/8 on light volume.  GE is saying that the rally here still has legs.  I can't argue with that yet.  Gold fell $15 on the futures and the US dollar closed the day about unchanged.  The XAU dropped 2 points.  ABX and NEM had slight fractional losses, while GG was unchanged.  Volume was very light.  I'll be looking at the gold shares closely over the weekend to try and come up with some type of game plan for next week and beyond.  I'm still a believer in higher prices for the precious metal shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Todays market action does not look positive going forward in the short term.  We could not hold the early gains.  Of course that could all change on Monday but I really don't think that it will.  I could be wrong.  I'll be checking the charts closely over the weekend.  2 weeks to go in the October option cycle.  Gold had a slight sell off today but the fundamentals remain in place.  We've been overbought here for quite a long time and perhaps it is finally time for gold to take an extended rest.  We've been moving sideways for 3 weeks.  I'm not exactly sure here and will ponder this over the weekend.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break. 

Moving back to the upside as the Dow gained 80 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to1 positive.  We've worked off the overbought condition in the stock indices.  Higher prices are the next logical conclusion.  Todays action should send the summation index back to the upside.  We should hit new yearly highs for the S&P 500 in the next couple of days.  I'll go out on a limb and say that tomorrows employment report won't make a difference.  We'll probably move higher regardless.  That's my guess at the moment.  GE was little changed on average volume.  No trades there for now.  Gold moved higher on a weaker US dollar.  The gold futures rose $16.  The XAU gained 5 1/2.  ABX and GG tacked on over a buck, while NEM added 3/4.  Volume was light.  It looks as though I've missed the chance for the October gold share calls.  The XAU closed on its high and should continue to the upside tomorrow.  I still may try the November ABX calls.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The OEX calls a couple of days ago looks like another missed opportunity.  Of course that's always easy to say after the fact.  Like I've said before, no uptrend lines have been violated in the stock indexes so the trend is up.  Gold continues to attract capital.  That trend remains in place.  The same things that have been working continue to work.  We'll look to the unemployment report tomorrow for direction but it may be to the upside now matter what.  We'll see.    

Muddling through the days here as the Dow rose 12 points on what now passes for average volume.  The advance/declines were even.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow again.  We also rose in the final hour and that is short term bullish.  Not much for me to say here as it appears that we are simply in a holding pattern awaiting the Friday employment report.  I'm sticking with my bullish resolution.  I may try the OEX calls tomorrow on weakness.  GE was up 1/8 on light volume.  Nothing doing here but we remain overbought.  Gold was up a bit today as was the US dollar.  The XAU fell 2 3/4 as the gold shares diverged from the precious metal.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on very light volume.  I have yet to put in an open order for some calls here as we haven't reached an oversold condition.  However I will be getting some calls eventually because the trend here is up and I don't think that it's over.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So we wait for Friday and that is the next market moving event.  A little over 2 weeks left in the October option cycle.  My thinking remains that higher prices are in the offing but I could be wrong.  The summation index continues lower but prices haven't followed.  The uptrend lines on the indices have not been violated yet either.  The presidential re-election rally remains in place.  Gold has been moving sideways for 3 weeks.  A rally in the stock market may not mean a rally in gold though.  We are almost back to the uptrend line in gold that now is at the 1760 level.  We'll see if it holds.  

Another mixed bag today as the Dow fell on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow today.  I really feel that we are about to take off to the upside soon.  We've had plenty of time to fall here but it just isn't happening.  I think that I will look at the October OEX calls tomorrow to try and find a trade.  We've been moving sideways for a week and it is time to get going.  I could be wrong but I don't think so.  GE was off a touch on average volume.  No trades here for now.  Gold fell $7 on the futures and the US dollar was lower a bit as well.  The XAU fell 1 1/4.  ABX, GG and NEM had fractional losses on light volume.  The gold shares have been moving nowhere for a couple of weeks since the huge move that began in August.  I'm still a believer in higher prices here.  I'm not sure if I'll try the October or November gold share calls though.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It could be that we are just waiting for Fridays employment report at the moment.  The summation index continues lower but I am guessing that it will turn around soon.  When markets drop, they usually go straight down and we have been hanging around now for a while.  A short squeeze rally could be in order.  Gold is hesitating but the underlying fundamentals for higher prices haven't changed.  We'll see what happens tomorrow.

A mixed market today despite the 78 point rise in the Dow.  The NASDAQ showed a slight loss.  The advance/declines were positive.  Volume was light.  We should be seeing a rise here in my opinion, ahead of the employment report on Friday.  But the action lately has been sloppy.  The summation index continues heading lower.  I'm sticking with a bullish stance unless we break the uptrend line in the S&P 500 at 1420.  GE was up 1/8 on average volume.  As long as GE continues higher it should bode well for the stock indices.  Gold was up almost $10 on the futures today as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU rose 1 1/8.  ABX and GG showed slight gains, while NEM had a fractional loss.  Volume was light.  I'm still considering the October gold share calls but have not put in another order just yet.  I may go out to November here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It's never a good sign when the Dow is the strongest index and the over the counter market lags.  That's what we got today.  It's a short term negative in my opinion.  The technicals here are getting mixed, which makes for a tough directional call.  But like I said before as long as 1420 holds on the S$P 500, I'll still look for higher prices.  It's still a presidential re-election rally for now.  Gold is still above the uptrend line from mid-August.  The short term technicals for gold remain overbought.  We'll check the overseas markets overnight and go from there.

We closed out the month to the downside as the Dow fell 49 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  I would have liked to have seen some follow through to the upside following yesterdays gains.  But it didn't happen.  I still think higher prices are coming and that we will take out the recent highs in the S&P 500.  But I could be wrong.  The summation index is pointing down.  We are short term oversold here on the stock indices but we haven't gotten a decent bounce.  Perhaps the beginning of the month money flows on Monday can get us going to the upside.  No major trend lines have been broken so I'm sticking with a bullish stance.  GE lost just a touch and the volume was heavy.  We're not short term oversold here, in fact it's just the opposite.  I'm not looking to trade GE here.  The gold futures fell $6 on the day as the US dollar had a decent move to the upside.  The fact that gold didn't drop that much lets you know that the money simply continues to flow there despite being overbought.  That won't last forever but you cannot fight it.  The XAU was off 1 1/8.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on average volume.  I canceled the open order for the October ABX calls.  No need to leave that out there over the weekend.  I'll consider what to do in the next couple of days and then decide whether to place another order.  I'm pretty sure that I will but perhaps at a different strike price or price.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  As usual the question is where do we go from here for the stock indexes.  I'm still a believer in higher prices.  We've got plenty of economic data out next week with the employment number on Friday.  So we will see where the market takes us.  Gold remains an attractive place for money to go from what I can see.  Nothing has stopped that trend yet.  I will look over the charts this weekend and try and come up with some type of trade for next week.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Back to the upside today as the Dow gained 72 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  I expect further upside tomorrow.  The only negative today was the light volume.  However positive market action was due and it showed up.  We will most likely set new highs for the year in the S&P 500 on this leg up.  That is my guess at the moment.  With GE having a very good day I believe that this will help lead the market higher.  GE gained 2/3 on good volume.  Today GE set a new high for the year and I think the overall market will follow.  Still overbought on GE but that is a condition that could last for a while.  Gold had a good day on the weaker US dollar.  The precious metal futures rose $26.  The XAU gained 5 2/3.  ABX up 7/8, GG higher by 1 1/3 and NEM higher by 1 1/4.  Volume was OK here.  It looks like that I've missed the chance to get long the gold shares this week as my open order wasn't filled on the decline yesterday.  I'm leaving in the October ABX call order for now but I doubt that it will be filled.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The presidential re-election rally is still in place.  We should continue higher into the beginning of November.  After that, it's anybodies guess.  Gold should continue higher as well and it is.  We'll probably see new highs on this leg up but I don't know when that will occur.  Any pull back in the gold shares looks like it can be bought.  The money continues to flow there.  We'll end the week, the month and the quarter tomorrow. 

Continuing lower today as the Dow fell 44 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  As much as I have remained bullish here and still believe that a decent up day is coming soon, I cannot ignore the recent market action.  We're oversold and staying there.  That can be a dangerous condition.  The summation index is heading lower, implying lower prices.  I can't say that I have a good feel for what is happening right now.  European worries have finally resurfaced, so we could once again go into a headline driven environment.  This is a problem that isn't simply going to go away.  I have no OEX trades in mind at the moment.  GE was off 1/4 on light volume.  I'll hold off on any trades here for now as well.  Gold fell $12 on the futures as the US dollar had a bit of strength.  The XAU sold off hard early but made it back to finish the day higher by 2/3.  ABX was flat, while GG and NEM had slight gains.  Volume was average.  The fact that the gold shares were able to come back after early morning losses is encouraging going forward.  I'm leaving in the open order for the October ABX calls.  Gold itself remains above the critical 1740 level.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  The S&P 500 remains above the uptrend line that began in June, so despite the recent swoon no real technical damage has occurred.  If we somehow break that line, then the game changes.  Hasn't happened yet.  Gold is taking a rest here and I expect the uptrend there to continue.  The only problem for the markets here is if we would all of a sudden fall apart in an already oversold condition.  I think the possibility of that is slim but what do I know?  I'll continue to leave the order in for the gold share calls unless we break 1740 in gold itself.  If that happens I'll have to reassess the situation.  All eyes will be on Europe tonight so we'll see what happens. 

A one day reversal to the downside today as we opened higher and closed lower.  The Dow fell 101 points and the volume was nothing special.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index has turned lower.  I was expecting higher prices near term and it hasn't happened.  I still think we will see a decent move up within the next couple of days.  That's what my technical work is saying.  I could be wrong.  No real reason for todays lower prices but we fell off in the last hour and that isn't bullish going forward.  The uptrend line in effect since June has not been broken.  GE was off a touch on better volume.  I'll wait until we get back to the 50 day moving average and go from there.  Both the gold futures and the US dollar were up slightly today.  However the XAU lost 3 1/8.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on average volume.  I'm leaving in the open order for the October ABX calls for now.  The uptrend line for the XAU comes in around the 180 level.  We aren't there yet.  I don't think that we are beginning a huge decline in gold but with gold you never know.  Things could get volatile.  I'm still a believer in higher prices going forward though.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We'll have to see if we get any follow through to the downside in the stock indices tomorrow.  Perhaps my take on things is wrong here but no technical damage has occurred yet.  I still think we should rally into the November election.  Even if gold decides to take a rest here I think it will be a chance to get the calls once again.  On the daily gold chart 1740 looks to be the key level that should hold.  If not then I will have to readjust my thinking.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.   

A lower start to the week as the Dow fell 20 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  Still basically moving sideways for the S&P 500.  I continue to believe that this is simply a pause before we head higher.  I see nothing to change that view for now.  Plenty of economic data out this week so maybe that will get things moving.  GE was off 1/8 or so on light volume.  I'll get the calls here when we get to the 50 day moving average, when and if that happens.  Otherwise it's a waiting game.  Gold fell today, the futures dropped $13 on a slightly higher US dollar.  The XAU lost 6 1/8.  The gold shares underperformed today.  ABX off 1 1/2, GG down 1 7/8 and NEM lost a buck.  Volume was average.  The gold shares were due a pullback and this is probably the start.  I've placed an open order for the October ABX calls since I believe that we will head back up to test the highs again before the end of the October option cycle.  No real hurry though as I have priced the ticket away from todays premium.  If ABX continues to drop the order may be filled.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I saw a lot of press this weekend about the divergence of the Dow transports, which I mentioned last week.  When everybody sees the same thing in the markets it usually doesn't mean anything.  We'll see.  The transports got a bounce today.  My work actually shows that we should see a move up in the stock indices this week despite the overbought conditions.  Time will tell soon on that.  Haven't had any news from Europe in a while to get things going.  End of the month and the 3rd quarter coming up on Friday.  We'll keep an eye on things overnight and go from there.

A slight one day reversal to the downside as the Dow opened higher and closed lower.  The major average finished the day with a loss of 17 points on expiration good volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  I think we are just waiting for the next leg up at this point.  I've been expecting some end of September weakness and it is just not happening.  The Dow transports continue to fall though.  I don't have any trades in mind for the OEX at the moment.  GE was up 1/8 on average volume.  I'm waiting for an entry point there as we are both short and medium term overbought.  Or you could just say that I missed the move higher unless we simply continue to move straight up.  Gold gained $7 on the futures as the US dollar lost just a touch.  The XAU was up 1 3/4.  Remaining very overbought here on a short term basis.  I really cannot try the calls here unless we work off some of the overbought condition.  ABX and GG had fractional gains, while NEM had a fractional loss.  Volume was good.  I'm still keeping an eye on the October calls for the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  There still aren't a lot of sellers of stock here.  The presidential re-election rally remains in place.  Rallies can last longer than you think and that seems to be the case with this one.  Gold continues to move higher and there aren't any sellers there either.  I'll simply have to try and remain patient.  We'll start the October option cycle on Monday and go from there.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest. 

Still consolidating the gains here in my opinion as the Dow gained 19 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  Sold off early and came all the way back.  Overbought, staying there and that hasn't changed.  The Dow transports have sold off hard this week while the Dow itself hasn't.  That's a divergence that shouldn't be ignored going forward.  The fact that oil dropped this week and the transports didn't rally makes you wonder as well.  But as long as the stock indices go higher, there is nothing that says they just can't keep on doing that.  Any pull back will be bought most likely.  GE was up over 1/8 on OK volume.  GE continuing to the upside bodes well for the overall market as well.  I'd like to get the calls here but not until we get back to the 50 day moving average if and when that happens.  Gold was flat today despite a rise in the US dollar.  That's bullish going forward.  The XAU dropped 1 1/3 though.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses.  Volume was average.  Like the overall market, there is nothing stopping the gold market from moving higher.  We're very overbought here and it hasn't mattered.  It will at some point but trying to figure out when that will be is a guessing game.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  September expiration tomorrow and my guess is that we'll be higher.  Sometimes when the beginning of September is strong the second half is weak.  That hasn't happened yet for this year.  The gold shares have gone straight up for two months.  This won't last forever either.  I'm a buyer on a pullback when that eventually happens.  For now it's patience and a waiting game for the next trade.

We bounced around a little today but not much on the end result as the Dow gained 13 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The technical story for the stock indices remains the same.  My thinking is that the recent sideways action is simply another pause before we head higher.  But I could be wrong and often am.  Still, I think we'll head up from here.  GE was up about 1/4 again on light volume.  Very overbought here on a short term basis but have been for a while.  Won't last forever.  Gold was flat on the futures today as the US dollar fell just a touch.  The XAU gained 1 3/4.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on average volume.  Very overbought on the gold shares as well but there are no sellers.  I'd still like to try the October gold share calls if I get the chance.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The trend remains up for the stock indexes.  The summation index is moving higher.  There really isn't any overhead resistance and any decline will probably be bought.  We should keep moving up into the November election.  The market is telegraphing an Obama victory.  The market action is consistent with the president being re-elected.  The worlds central banks have indicated that they will print as much money as needed to keep the game alive.  That is extremely bullish for gold going forward.  The gold shares continue to outperform the precious metal.  That is bullish for them.  Just 2 days left here in option expiration week.  We really haven't seen any volatility yet.  We'll watch what happens overseas tonight and go from there.

Not much volatility yet for expiration week as the Dow gained 11 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  I still think we'll go higher this week but there really isn't a catalyst for prices yet.  Still overbought on the stock indices.  No need to risk a trade anymore in the September option cycle.  GE was up almost 1/4 on light volume.  Overbought, staying there and who knows how long that will last?  October GE calls on a pull back is the plan for now.  The gold futures were flat on the day which represented a comeback from the sell off in yesterdays aftermarket.  The Dollar showed a gain again today but the precious metal did not sell off.  This is a positive going forward.  The XAU gained 1 1/2.  ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other.  Volume was average.  Very overbought here but that can last a while in an extended up move.  That appears to be what's happening here.  Any sell off in gold or the gold shares can be bought.  However it seems everybody knows this already, hence no sell off.  I'm going to wait for some weakness though.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  I'm still in a wait and see mode.  I believe that the end of this month will produce some weakness but not necessarily this week.  The summation index is still heading higher.  Gold is practically going parabolic here and that is a dangerous thing to chase.  I have to wait for some weakness here.  A quick decline in gold would most likely set things up for the next rise.  That's a guess as usual.  Gold has gotten a lot of attention lately and that could be a precursor to a cooling off period.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.
 

A weekend hangover Monday as the Dow fell 40 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  We made a bit of a comeback in the final hour.  The market still has the feel of wanting higher prices although we remain overbought on a short term basis.  Expiration week usually has a positive bias so we'll have to see if it holds true for September.  Some economic data out this week.  However all the news from the Fed and the ECB is already out.  We will have to wait and see where the next catalyst comes from.  GE was off a touch and volume was heavy.  I'm still considering the October calls here on some type of pullback.  Not yet though.  Gold was off a couple of bucks on the futures and $10 more in the aftermarket.  The US dollar was just a bit higher today.  The XAU was down 1/3.  ABX and NEM had fractional losses, while GG was flat.  Volume was average.  Gold really needs to take a rest as it has remained overbought for a couple of weeks.  I will attempt the gold share calls again on a pullback but must try and remain patient for now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  4 days left in the September options and it probably wouldn't be wise to try anything there.  I think that I will have to simply let this week go by trading wise.  But we'll see.  Perhaps if gold takes a rest I can make a trade there.  I'm leaning towards a wait and see attitude for now.    

The rally continues as the Dow tacked on another 53 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  All signs point to higher prices as the stock markets attract capital.  Liquidity abounds.  There is plenty of money to go around the world.  In some sense it doesn't matter what the economy does for a while as long as the flow of money continues into stocks.  Price and volume confirm the move higher.  I'd expect the upcoming expiration week to have a positive bias.  GE up 1/8 and the volume very heavy once again.  If we can back back close to the 50 day moving average on a daily basis, I'll probably give the October calls a look.  Overbought and staying there for now.  Gold was up a bit on the futures.  The US dollar has completely broken down.  If we get a snap back in the dollar perhaps gold will drop and that could be the next entry point for the precious metal.  Or we might just continue going parabolic.  The XAU gained 5 1/3.  As long as the gold shares outperform the metal itself all systems are a go for higher prices.  ABX and GG gained 3/4 while NEM added 1 3/4.  Volume was very heavy once again.  I'm going to try and be patient before attempting the calls here again.  But we are going higher here as well.  Mentally I'm doing OK.  With only 5 days remaining in the September option cycle I probably will not be trying a short term trade.  It is hard to watch the gold shares rally when I sold mine early but I have been down this road before.  There will be a reaction and another chance at the calls but I'm going to have to wait for it.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The Fed delivered today as the Dow soared 206 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were almost 4 to 1 positive.  QE3 has arrived on schedule.  Summation index moving higher.  Technically there is nothing in the way for even higher prices on the stock indices.  Declines can still be bought.  We should move up into the September option expiration.  Perhaps we'll stall after that but I do not see any huge declines on the near term horizon.  I've missed the chance to get the September OEX calls unless we get a short term pullback.  There are only 6 days left for the September option cycle, so the risk in any trade there is high.  GE was up 1/8 on extremely heavy volume.  Overbought, staying there and that sounds like a broken record.  We are at $22 for GE now.  Perhaps the October 22 calls on a pullback will be the next trade.  Gold took off today as the US dollar continues to fall.  The precious metal gained $38 on the futures.  The XAU rose 8 7/8.  ABX up almost 2, GG gained 2 1/3 and NEM higher by almost 3 points.  Volume was very heavy, confirming the move higher.  I still think the gold shares are going higher but it's getting late in the game for this move.  Or not.  We could see a parabolic rise and that is what it is starting to feel like.  Obviously I sold the October ABX calls way too soon.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  Where do we go from here is the next question.  All the good news has been announced.  Sometimes a strong first half of September leads to a weaker second half.  If that happens it could set us up for the October calls.  We've got a presidential rally here in my opinion.  I think that the market is telling us to look for an Obama victory.  If so, we should stay strong into the beginning of November.  The fact that the financials have led this rally means that it's for real.  Gold is going strong and that trend should continue.  I will try and find another place to hop on board.  We'll finish off the trading week tomorrow.

The Dow gained 10 points today on average volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  The market was lower but made a final hour comeback.  Waiting on the Fed.  The market breadth remains in an uptrend.  The McClellan oscillator continues to the upside.  I think that we will continue to see higher prices going into the September option expiration.  It looks to me like that is the set up at the moment.  Of course the Fed could move things the other way if the reaction to the announcement tomorrow is negative.  But even so, I feel it would be short lived.  I could be wrong.  GE was up almost 1/3 on average volume.  Overbought and staying there for GE.  Looks like I won't be able to buy the October calls here as a pullback hasn't materialized.  Gold was flat on the day as the US dollar dropped a bit more.  The XAU gained 2/3.  ABX up 1/4, GG rose 3/4 and NEM added 1/2.  Volume was good here.  The gold shares sold off early and came all the way back.  Still overbought here but trying to go higher.  I'm still interested in the October gold share calls if I get the chance to re-enter.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  I'm guessing things will get a bit volatile with the Fed news tomorrow.  It could be a triple digit day either way.  I have a couple of trading ideas but I will let the news pass before attempting the next trade.  All eyes on the Fed tomorrow.  

Back to the upside in a Fed waiting game market as the Dow gained 69 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  We get a ruling from Germany on the ECB bailout tomorrow and the Fed announcement on Thursday.  Those will be the near term drivers for the markets.  The trend is still up in my opinion.  The uptrend line that began in the beginning of June for the S&P 500 on a daily basis remains in place.  I may try the September OEX calls before next weeks expiration.  GE was up an 1/8 on light volume.  Again, I might go out to the October calls here on a pullback.  Gold was up a few bucks on the futures.  The US dollar had a bad day but gold did not rally as much vs. the movement in the dollar.  That isn't bullish for gold.  The XAU moved up 2/3.  ABX and GG had very slight fractional gains, while NEM was up 2/3.  Volume was light.  I'm waiting on the gold shares here for some type of short term correction.  I'll then probably try the October ABX calls again.  The Fed announcement should provide some movement here.  Still overbought on the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock indexes are overbought and staying there.  This is a technical condition that could persist.  I am probably going to wait for the Fed and the market reaction before I make my next trade.  That goes for the gold shares as well.  Sometimes you have to be patient.  Not to mention that the risk level will be elevated due to the uncertainty.  Although most believe that QE3 is coming, it may already be discounted or not happen at all.  So I'll stay on the sidelines until the news is out and then go from there.  We'll see what happens in Germany tonight. 

We started the week off on a weak note as the Dow fell 52 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  Digesting the recent gains in my opinion as we wait for the Fed later in the week.  I might be looking at the September OEX calls for a short term trade here if we get oversold.  I do not think this is the beginning of anything big to the downside.  As usual, I could be wrong.  GE was off 1/8 and volume was light.  I am looking at the October calls here on a pullback.  I think I will wait on the Fed first though.  The gold futures were off $8 and a bit more in the aftermarket.  The US dollar only had a slight gain.  The XAU was lower by 2 7/8.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume.  I'm still looking at the October gold share calls again.  Once again the volume and open interest expanded on the ABX October 40 calls.  That could be the next trade.  Again, waiting on the Fed is my preferred way to go at the moment.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  No real reason for todays decline and there wasn't much conviction in the move.  The trend for the stock indices remains up.  Gold is taking a slight breather but I do believe that there is more room to the upside there as well.  We've got some economic data out this week but all eyes will be on the Fed.  I'm guessing it will be a sell on the news event but we'll see.  I'll keep an eye on Europe tonight and go from there.

It was a sideways trading day with a bit of a pop at the close.  The Dow was higher by 14 points on better than average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The employment numbers were weak but the market didn't care.  We're heading higher.  There is no overhead resistance.  We should at least run up into the September option expiration.  Declines can be bought.  If we get to short term oversold, I might try the OEX calls.  However people will be buying nay dip because they have missed the move, so getting oversold would be difficult.  GE was up 1/4 on lighter volume.  It is the same story here, we've broken out above resistance.  Calls are the trade here.  I'll check the option premiums over the weekend.  Gold had a stellar day as the US dollar broke a longer term uptrend line that was a year in duration.  The gold futures were higher by $34.  The XAU gained 5 1/2.  ABX up 1 1/8, GG rose 7/8 and NEM added 3/4.  Volume was good.  I'll be looking to buy the October gold share calls again if we see some pullback.  Overbought and staying there.  All signs point to higher prices for gold as well.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired and of course discouraged for selling the October ABX calls yesterday.  But you have to keep moving on in the game.  The stock indices have broken out to the upside and we'll have to see how far they can run.  We might get a pullback to the breakout point but we also might not.  I'll be looking for long entries over the weekend.  We've got the Fed next week and that will be the catalyst for the next move in the markets.  There was heavy volume in the ABX October 40 calls yesterday and today.  That was a precursor for higher gold share prices when it happened with the October ABX 34 calls in August.  It appears to be the case again.  I'll try to come up with a game plan over the weekend to get some gold share calls again.  For now it is Friday afternoon and time for a break.

We got the resolution to the direction of the market today as the Dow climbed 244 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive.  The ECB spoke and the markets liked what they heard.  It doesn't really matter if it works or not.  The market has spoken and we should listen.  We broke through the 1420 level on the S&P 500.  There is nothing in the way of higher prices.  We will get the employment report tomorrow but even if we drop, I think that any decline can be bought.  The McClellan oscillator will be moving back to the upside after todays action.  GE was up almost 2/3 on good volume.  The 50 day moving average held once again.  I may try the calls here despite the good move up today.  The weekly chart for GE is looking constructive.  Gold rallied as well.  The futures were up over $10.  I would have liked to see a better move in gold today.  The US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU rose over 4 points and is at the 200 day moving average on the daily charts.  ABX was up 7/8, while GG and NEM gained 1 1/4.  Volume was good.  I sold my October ABX calls.  The profit was 160%.  I could be early to exit here.  I noticed that the volume expanded at the close on these options.  The last time that happened with the ABX October 34 calls, we saw higher prices in the near term.  We also closed on the high of the day for ABX and that is usually bullish.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The markets powered higher today.  Shorts were squeezed.  The Dow transports haven't confirmed the move higher but could in time.  Gold though overbought is still a buy in my opinion.  The gold shares outperformed gold itself today and that is a positive going forward.  I will try and buy back some gold share calls cheaper in the days ahead.  I am going to stick to the October series for now.  We've got the employment number tomorrow and that should be a mover as well.  Stay tuned. 

A waiting game as the Dow rose 11 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  Today the overall market was weaker than the Dow.  Nothing to do but wait for the ECB tomorrow.  I still think that we will take another shot at 1420 on the S&P 500 in the near future.  As always, I could be wrong and often am.  GE was up 1/8 on lighter volume.  Still holding at the 50 day moving average on the daily charts.  Gold was little changed today as the US dollar didn't do much either.  The XAU was off 1/4.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional moves one way or the other on light volume.  The same wait and see attitude going on here as well.  Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well.  If we don't get moving tomorrow on the ECB, we should get going off of the employment numbers on Friday.  That's the idea for now.  My ABX October calls are still in the black and the price isn't moving much.  We'll see what happens tomorrow and go from there.

Welcome back everybody is what the markets would like to say as the summer has now passed on by.  It was a mixed market as the Dow fell about 55 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  We were lower during the day but made some what of a comeback.  There will be an ECB announcement on Thursday and we've got the employment number on Friday.  The technicals on the stock indices are oversold here short term so I'm still in the bullish camp.  GE was lower by over an 1/8.  Volume here looks to be average and the recent uptrend line has been violated.  We are at the 50 day moving average on the daily charts and we'll see if that holds.  Gold gained $8 on the futures, which was a carryover from Friday.  The US dollar was a bit higher today.  The XAU was flat.  ABX and GG had fractional losses.  NEM led the way lower by 7/8.  NEM leading the way down isn't usually bullish for the gold shares going forward.  Volume was light.  My October ABX calls are still in the black.  The gold shares are overbought here short term.  My guess is that near term gold will do the opposite of what the US dollar does.  The US dollar is right at a longer term weekly uptrend line that has been in effect for a year.  Things will get interesting for this ABX trade.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  The stock indexes are waiting for the next bit of news and we'll have to see what the reaction is.  I'm going to remain bullish for now but of course, anything can happen.  The ABX October call trade is still showing a profit.  Gold has had a nice near term run here and I would expect it to take a rest.  The timing of that is the question.  Plenty of time on the ABX trade but that doesn't mean it will remain profitable.  Always plenty of questions in this game.  We'll keep an eye on things overnight and see what develops tomorrow.