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Thursday, September 13, 2012

The Fed delivered today as the Dow soared 206 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were almost 4 to 1 positive.  QE3 has arrived on schedule.  Summation index moving higher.  Technically there is nothing in the way for even higher prices on the stock indices.  Declines can still be bought.  We should move up into the September option expiration.  Perhaps we'll stall after that but I do not see any huge declines on the near term horizon.  I've missed the chance to get the September OEX calls unless we get a short term pullback.  There are only 6 days left for the September option cycle, so the risk in any trade there is high.  GE was up 1/8 on extremely heavy volume.  Overbought, staying there and that sounds like a broken record.  We are at $22 for GE now.  Perhaps the October 22 calls on a pullback will be the next trade.  Gold took off today as the US dollar continues to fall.  The precious metal gained $38 on the futures.  The XAU rose 8 7/8.  ABX up almost 2, GG gained 2 1/3 and NEM higher by almost 3 points.  Volume was very heavy, confirming the move higher.  I still think the gold shares are going higher but it's getting late in the game for this move.  Or not.  We could see a parabolic rise and that is what it is starting to feel like.  Obviously I sold the October ABX calls way too soon.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  Where do we go from here is the next question.  All the good news has been announced.  Sometimes a strong first half of September leads to a weaker second half.  If that happens it could set us up for the October calls.  We've got a presidential rally here in my opinion.  I think that the market is telling us to look for an Obama victory.  If so, we should stay strong into the beginning of November.  The fact that the financials have led this rally means that it's for real.  Gold is going strong and that trend should continue.  I will try and find another place to hop on board.  We'll finish off the trading week tomorrow.

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