Tuesday, September 04, 2012
Welcome back everybody is what the markets would like to say as the summer has now passed on by. It was a mixed market as the Dow fell about 55 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. We were lower during the day but made some what of a comeback. There will be an ECB announcement on Thursday and we've got the employment number on Friday. The technicals on the stock indices are oversold here short term so I'm still in the bullish camp. GE was lower by over an 1/8. Volume here looks to be average and the recent uptrend line has been violated. We are at the 50 day moving average on the daily charts and we'll see if that holds. Gold gained $8 on the futures, which was a carryover from Friday. The US dollar was a bit higher today. The XAU was flat. ABX and GG had fractional losses. NEM led the way lower by 7/8. NEM leading the way down isn't usually bullish for the gold shares going forward. Volume was light. My October ABX calls are still in the black. The gold shares are overbought here short term. My guess is that near term gold will do the opposite of what the US dollar does. The US dollar is right at a longer term weekly uptrend line that has been in effect for a year. Things will get interesting for this ABX trade. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well. The stock indexes are waiting for the next bit of news and we'll have to see what the reaction is. I'm going to remain bullish for now but of course, anything can happen. The ABX October call trade is still showing a profit. Gold has had a nice near term run here and I would expect it to take a rest. The timing of that is the question. Plenty of time on the ABX trade but that doesn't mean it will remain profitable. Always plenty of questions in this game. We'll keep an eye on things overnight and see what develops tomorrow.