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Thursday, September 20, 2012

Still consolidating the gains here in my opinion as the Dow gained 19 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  Sold off early and came all the way back.  Overbought, staying there and that hasn't changed.  The Dow transports have sold off hard this week while the Dow itself hasn't.  That's a divergence that shouldn't be ignored going forward.  The fact that oil dropped this week and the transports didn't rally makes you wonder as well.  But as long as the stock indices go higher, there is nothing that says they just can't keep on doing that.  Any pull back will be bought most likely.  GE was up over 1/8 on OK volume.  GE continuing to the upside bodes well for the overall market as well.  I'd like to get the calls here but not until we get back to the 50 day moving average if and when that happens.  Gold was flat today despite a rise in the US dollar.  That's bullish going forward.  The XAU dropped 1 1/3 though.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses.  Volume was average.  Like the overall market, there is nothing stopping the gold market from moving higher.  We're very overbought here and it hasn't mattered.  It will at some point but trying to figure out when that will be is a guessing game.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  September expiration tomorrow and my guess is that we'll be higher.  Sometimes when the beginning of September is strong the second half is weak.  That hasn't happened yet for this year.  The gold shares have gone straight up for two months.  This won't last forever either.  I'm a buyer on a pullback when that eventually happens.  For now it's patience and a waiting game for the next trade.

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