Tuesday, September 11, 2012
Back to the upside in a Fed waiting game market as the Dow gained 69 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. We get a ruling from Germany on the ECB bailout tomorrow and the Fed announcement on Thursday. Those will be the near term drivers for the markets. The trend is still up in my opinion. The uptrend line that began in the beginning of June for the S&P 500 on a daily basis remains in place. I may try the September OEX calls before next weeks expiration. GE was up an 1/8 on light volume. Again, I might go out to the October calls here on a pullback. Gold was up a few bucks on the futures. The US dollar had a bad day but gold did not rally as much vs. the movement in the dollar. That isn't bullish for gold. The XAU moved up 2/3. ABX and GG had very slight fractional gains, while NEM was up 2/3. Volume was light. I'm waiting on the gold shares here for some type of short term correction. I'll then probably try the October ABX calls again. The Fed announcement should provide some movement here. Still overbought on the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The stock indexes are overbought and staying there. This is a technical condition that could persist. I am probably going to wait for the Fed and the market reaction before I make my next trade. That goes for the gold shares as well. Sometimes you have to be patient. Not to mention that the risk level will be elevated due to the uncertainty. Although most believe that QE3 is coming, it may already be discounted or not happen at all. So I'll stay on the sidelines until the news is out and then go from there. We'll see what happens in Germany tonight.