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Tuesday, September 25, 2012

A one day reversal to the downside today as we opened higher and closed lower.  The Dow fell 101 points and the volume was nothing special.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index has turned lower.  I was expecting higher prices near term and it hasn't happened.  I still think we will see a decent move up within the next couple of days.  That's what my technical work is saying.  I could be wrong.  No real reason for todays lower prices but we fell off in the last hour and that isn't bullish going forward.  The uptrend line in effect since June has not been broken.  GE was off a touch on better volume.  I'll wait until we get back to the 50 day moving average and go from there.  Both the gold futures and the US dollar were up slightly today.  However the XAU lost 3 1/8.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on average volume.  I'm leaving in the open order for the October ABX calls for now.  The uptrend line for the XAU comes in around the 180 level.  We aren't there yet.  I don't think that we are beginning a huge decline in gold but with gold you never know.  Things could get volatile.  I'm still a believer in higher prices going forward though.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We'll have to see if we get any follow through to the downside in the stock indices tomorrow.  Perhaps my take on things is wrong here but no technical damage has occurred yet.  I still think we should rally into the November election.  Even if gold decides to take a rest here I think it will be a chance to get the calls once again.  On the daily gold chart 1740 looks to be the key level that should hold.  If not then I will have to readjust my thinking.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.   

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