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Friday, October 19, 2012

An interesting expiration Friday as the Dow fell 205 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative.  Earnings disappointments were the norm for today.  The S&P 500 is right back to the 50 day moving average and the technicals have rolled over.  It appears that we are going to head lower.  My call for new yearly highs looks like another bad idea on my part.  I expected some weakness next week but not of this magnitude.  The uptrend line that has been in effect since June has been broken and the next support that I see is at around 1420 and then 1400 if that doesn't hold.  Anything could happen but todays action changes the near term tone of the market.  GE fell on its earnings report.  It was down 3/4 on heavy volume.  On the weekly chart here the uptrend line is at $21.50.  That line has been in effect since late 2011.  It is important that we stay above that level on a weekly closing basis or it could spell trouble for the overall markets.  That's my thoughts there at the moment.  Gold fell $20 on the futures as the US dollar was higher on the day.  However the gold shares did not follow as the XAU only lost 1/4.  ABX, GG and NEM were mixed with fractional moves.  The volume here picked up and they closed well off of their lows of the day.  Money sought the gold shares as a safe haven today in my opinion.  I left in the open order for the January ABX calls.  I noticed extremely heavy volume in the January 42 ABX calls today.  If the open interest expands on Monday it would be a positive sign.  The same type of action occurred in the ABX calls prior to the August-September run up.  I'm still a believer in the gold shares moving higher in the medium term future.  I could be wrong and often am.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Today was possibly a game changer for the overall stock indices.  The tech shares are leading the way down.  If the bank shares roll over here as well, we will probably be in a longer term decline.  Hasn't happened yet.  The fact that gold sold off today also makes the possibility of asset liquidation look real.  I'm going to try and purchase some gold share calls next week.  That is the game plan as of right now.  I'll be checking all the charts over the weekend to decide the best course of action.  I'll also be watching the financial media to see the reaction to todays sell off.  If the tone is bullish then we are most likely headed lower.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest. 

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