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Thursday, October 11, 2012

We tried to hold onto the gains made early today but could not.  The Dow lost 18 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive though.  Short term oversold and a bounce is coming.  The indices were mixed today.  I'd expect some type of rally attempt tomorrow into early next week.  We are still right at the uptrend line for the S&P 500 and I expect it to hold for now in the short term.  But if it doesn't, the game will have changed.  Hasn't happened yet.  GE had a slight gain and the volume was very light.  No trades here for now.  Gold was up $5 on the futures as the US dollar lost some ground today.  The XAU gained 7/8.  ABX and GG had fractional losses, while NEM was up 1/2.  Volume remains light here.  I adjusted down the price for the November ABX calls again.  I also placed an open order in for some January ABX calls.  I am now thinking that October could be a consolidation month for the gold shares.  That's a guess as usual.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  6 days to go in the October option cycle.  If I had the guts, I'd be willing to try the OEX calls tomorrow on any weakness.  The problem there is that if we break the uptrend line in the S&P 500, we'll be heading lower rather quickly.  The summation index is heading lower as well so I'm not willing to take the risk.  Gold is still meandering around here.  I'll keep an eye on Europe overnight and take it from there.

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