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Monday, October 15, 2012

We got a bounce today as the Dow gained 95 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  Some upside was expected and the next question is whether we can sustain it.  The market did rally in the last hour which is a positive going forward.  We've held the 50 day moving average on the S&P 500 daily charts.  The summation index is still moving down but that could change with another day like today.  There is a school of thought that says that we will rally into the election because of the re-election of Obama.  That could be true.  But we'll stick with the technicals and they are oversold and starting to move up on the stick indices.  So there is room to go higher.  GE was up 1/8 on light volume.  No trades here and the earnings are due on Friday.  Gold fell today as the futures lost over $20, breaking support.  The US dollar was lower as well.  The XAU sold off early but followed the overall market back to finished up 1/4.  The gold shares outperformed gold itself and that bodes well for the gold shares moving forward.  ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume.  I still have the open order in for the January ABX calls.  I'd like to see it filled before the earnings come out on November 1st.  May or may not happen.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  The positive expiration week bias looks intact after todays market action.  But we still have the rest of the week to go.  Plenty of earnings being reported this week along with a number of economic reports.  Time will tell if this is the beginning of a new leg up for the stock indexes.  I'm not sure one way or the other but we could rally into the expiration.  After that, we'll have to wait and see.  Gold broke down today on the daily chart.  The technicals are just getting oversold.  The 50 day moving average could act as support and that comes in at around $1710.  I'm still a believer in higher prices going out in time.  But for now it appears that gold is going to take a rest.  I'd still like to get some gold share calls though.  We'll see if the stock indices can follow through to the upside tomorrow.  

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