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Wednesday, October 10, 2012

We are right at the point of ending the months long rally as the Dow fell 128 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The S&P 500 is sitting on the uptrend line that began in June.  The summation index continues lower.  On the plus side, we haven't broken down yet.  We are also short term oversold.  Plus the advance/declines for today were not as bad as a down 128 point market.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow as well.  But we are at a point in time where things might change and we have to be aware of that.  GE was off 1/4 on light volume.  It looks like we are rolling over here and that would not be bullish for the overall stock indices.  Gold was flat on the day as was the US dollar.  Waiting on a meeting in Europe tomorrow is my guess.  The XAU gained 1 1/3.  ABX, GG and NEM were mixed with slight moves one way or the other on light volume.  I left in the open order for the November ABX calls after adjusting the price lower.  I am also looking at going out to the January calls here.  ABX is trying to hold the $40 level and a break of that should take us to the 50 day moving average at the $38.5 level.  That may actually be the spot to get long.  All just theory there.  I remain a longer term believer in higher prices for gold and the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  Just as today was important, tomorrow is even more so.  We probably should bounce but after that it could get dicey.  What I'm saying is that being careful here would not be a bad idea.  That said, the decline could also be done and now we rally to new yearly highs.  Take your pick but I think we'll know pretty soon what is going to happen.  Gold is still holding up pretty good for now as the US dollar is at an important juncture as well.  Any strength in the dollar will break through a down trend line that has been in effect since late July.  It is something to keep an eye on with respect to gold and the stock indexes as well.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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